Match Info

ITALY: SERIE A - ROUND 16

Date: 4 January 2023, Wednesday

Location: Stadio Alberto Picco (La Spezia)

Referee: Giua A. (Ita)

Where to Watch on TV:


Australia	beIN Sports
Bulgaria	Max Sport 3
Czech-republic	Nova Sport 3
Denmark	TV2 Sport X
Finland	CMore, CMore Sport
Hungary	Sport 1
Poland	Eleven Sports 1
Portugal	Sport TV
Romania	Prima Sport 1
Slovenia	Arena Sport
Sweden	CMore Fotboll
United-kingdom	BT Sport


	Spezia		Atalanta

	1	X	2
	4.75	3.75	1.73	Watch
	4.33	3.8	1.78
	4.5	3.85	1.76
	4.5	3.85	1.74
	4.85	3.97	1.77
	4.4	3.8	1.75
	4.55	4	1.73	Watch
	4.6	4	1.78
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.56 ↓ (4.69)	3.88 ↓ (3.95)	1.76 ↑ (1.7)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 2.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Spezia
20.9%

Draw
24.6%

Atalanta
54.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

20.2%

24%

55.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

19.1%

25.4%

59%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Spezia has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.7%)

Atalanta has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Spezia than the current prediction. (-1.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Atalanta than the current prediction. (+4.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
7.5%	5.2%	87.3%

Spezia - Atalanta Predictions

Users Predictions: Atalanta will win (117 of 134 users predict this - 87.31%).
Confidence interval (95%): 81.67% – 92.95%. The data is statistically significant.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Preview

Let's watch a game between leader and outsider (ranked 17 and 6 in the zone Promotion ~ Europa Conference League (Qualification)).

Spezia has the most likely position - 17 (13.47%), has project points - 35, has currently - 13, has a chance of relegated (35%), has a very small chance of qualify for ucl (<1%), has a very small chance of win league (<1%).

Atalanta has the most likely position - 6 (15.69%), has project points - 65, has currently - 27, has a very small chance of relegated (<1%), has a chance of qualify for ucl (27%), has a very small chance of win league (<1%).

This event has quality 58, importance 50, match rating 54. (0-100) (fivethirtyeight.com)

Now both teams are in good shape.

Atalanta could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

Recently Spezia have a series of home games.

In this match Atalanta is a favorite.

There will not play in Spezia: Dragowski B. (Injury)

There will not play in Atalanta: Demiral M. (Injury) Hateboer H. (Injury) Muratore S. (Injury) Musso J. (Injury)

There are questionable in Spezia: Reca A. (Injury)

Last 5 head-to-head matches Spezia won 0 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 4 matches and goals 4-13.

Including matches at home between the teams Spezia won 0 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 1-3.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Spezia Calcio
Club Friendly
20.12.22	Spezia - Groningen	2:0 ✺
17.12.22	Spezia - Sparta Rotterdam	1:3 ✺
14.12.22	Spezia - Servette	3:0 ✺
Italian Serie A
13.11.22	Verona - Spezia	1:2 ✺
08.11.22	Spezia - Udinese	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 18.8 WLWWT
- Atalanta
Club Friendly
30.12.22	Atalanta - Crema	10:1 ✺
29.12.22	Atalanta - AZ Alkmaar	0:1 ✺
23.12.22	Betis - Atalanta	0:3 ✺
16.12.22	Nice - Atalanta	0:3 ✺
09.12.22	Atalanta - Eintracht Frankfurt	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.4 WLWWT

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie A
08.05.22	Spezia - Atalanta	1:3
20.11.21	Atalanta - Spezia	5:2
12.03.21	Atalanta - Spezia	3:1
21.11.20	Spezia - Atalanta	0:0
Club Friendly
09.08.14	Atalanta - Spezia	2:0

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