Match Info

ITALY: SERIE A - ROUND 14

Date: 8 November 2022, Tuesday

Location: Stadio Alberto Picco (La Spezia)

Referee: Piccinini M. (Ita)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	SuperSport
Croatia	Arena Sport
Czech-republic	Premier Sport 1
Finland	CMore
France	beIN Sports Max
Germany	DAZN Deutsch
Hungary	Sport 2
Japan	DAZN Japan
Poland	Eleven Sports 2
Portugal	Sport TV
Serbia	Arena Sport
Slovenia	Arena Sport
Sweden	CMore Fotboll
United-kingdom	BT Sport


	Spezia		Udinese

	1	X	2
	3.8	3.5	2	Watch
	3.7	3.5	2
	3.9	3.5	1.96
	3.65	3.55	1.99
	3.95	3.61	2.03
	3.7	3.5	2	Watch
	3.66	3.68	1.98	Watch
	3.8	3.65	2.03
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.77 ↓ (4.45)	3.56 ↓ (3.71)	2 ↑ (1.77)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 2.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Spezia
25.3%

Draw
26.8%

Udinese
47.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

21.3%

25.4%

53.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

22.3%

24.3%

50.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Spezia has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4%)

Udinese has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.5%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Udinese might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Spezia than the current prediction. (-3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Udinese than the current prediction. (+3.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
22.9%	17.1%	60%

Spezia - Udinese Predictions

Users Predictions: 70 users predict this event. Spezia will win (votes: 16 - 22.9%). Udinese will win (votes: 42 - 60%). It will Tie (votes: 12 - 17.1%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Udinese: 48.5% – 71.5%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Preview

A team from the mid-table and outsider will play in this match (ranked 17 and 8).

Spezia has the most likely position - 20 (18.86%), has project points - 32, has currently - 9, has a chance of relegated (50%), has a very small chance of qualify for ucl (<1%), has a very small chance of win league (<1%).

Udinese has the most likely position - 8 (15.65%), has project points - 60, has currently - 23, has a very small chance of relegated (<1%), has a small chance of qualify for ucl (11%), has a very small chance of win league (<1%).

This event has quality 55, importance 35, match rating 45. (0-100) (fivethirtyeight.com)

The competitors look crappy now.

Spezia could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

In this match Udinese is a favorite.

There will not play in Spezia: Bastoni S. (Injury) Gyasi E. (Injury) Kovalenko V. (Injury)

There will not play in Udinese: Lovric S. (Injury)

There are questionable in Udinese: Masina A. (Injury) Rodrigo Becao (Injury)

Last 5 head-to-head matches Spezia won 3 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 8-6.

Including matches at home between the teams Spezia won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 0-2.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Spezia Calcio
Italian Serie A
05.11.22	Milan - Spezia	2:1 ✺
30.10.22	Spezia - Fiorentina	1:2 ✺
22.10.22	Salernitana - Spezia	1:0 ✺
Coppa Italia
19.10.22	Spezia - Brescia	3:1 ✺
Italian Serie A
16.10.22	Spezia - Cremonese	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.1 LLLWT
- Udinese Calcio
Italian Serie A
04.11.22	Udinese - Lecce	1:1 ✺
30.10.22	Cremonese - Udinese	0:0 ✺
23.10.22	Udinese - Torino	1:2 ✺
Coppa Italia
19.10.22	Udinese - Monza	2:3 ✺
Italian Serie A
16.10.22	Lazio - Udinese	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.6 TTLLT

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie A
14.05.22	Udinese - Spezia	2:3
12.09.21	Spezia - Udinese	0:1
31.01.21	Spezia - Udinese	0:1
30.09.20	Udinese - Spezia	0:2
Coppa Italia
13.08.16	Udinese - Spezia	2:3

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