Match Info

Serie B - Round 6

Date: 25 April 2026, Saturday

Location: Estadio Adelmar da Costa Carvalho (Recife)

Referee: Guimaraes L. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Disney+


	Sport Recife		Grêmio Novorizontino

	1	X	2
	2.45	3.2	2.82	Watch
	2.4	3.1	2.92
	2.5	3.26	3.05
	2.39	3.29	2.94	Watch
	2.4	3	2.88
	2.41	3.1	2.98	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.43 ↑ (2.1)	3.16 ↓ (3.2)	2.93 ↓ (3.54)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Sport Recife
38.5%

Draw
29.6%

Grêmio Novorizontino
31.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

44.5%

29.2%

26.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

45.3%

28.7%

25.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Sport Recife has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Sport Recife's form might have worsened.

Grêmio Novorizontino has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Grêmio Novorizontino's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Sport Recife than the current prediction. (+6.8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Sport Recife, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Grêmio Novorizontino than the current prediction. (-6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Grêmio Novorizontino, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
75%	12.5%	12.5%

Sport Recife - Grêmio Novorizontino Predictions

Users Predictions: 8 users predict this event. Recife will win (votes: 6 - 75%). Novorizontino will win (votes: 1 - 12.5%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 12.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Recife: 45% – 100%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DC - Novorizontino (1.60) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Novorizontino (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
26. Thiago Couto (G) 13. Madson 5. Benevenuto (C) 28. Habraao 60. Felipinho 23. Ze Gabriel 58. Ze Lucas 30. Chrystian Barletta 6. Biel Fonseca 25. Clayson 9. Pedro Perotti	31. Cesar Augusto (G) 22. Ivan Alvarino 25. Dantas 4. Patrick 66. Maykon Jesus 15. Tavinho 17. Matheus Bianqui 6. Luis Oyama 19. Diego Galo 11. Robson (C) 50. Juninho
Substitutes
68. Augusto 65. Dede 10. de Pena Carlos 96. Edson Lucas 11. Gustavo Maia 1. Halls (G) 95. Iury Castilho 31. Marlon Douglas 8. Max Alves 63. Patrick 48. Pedro Martins 7. Yago Felipe	9. Carlao 3. Carlinhos 77. Helio Borges 21. Kauan Alemao 18. Leo Naldi 24. Lora J. 8. Ortiz C. 29. Paulo Henrique (G) 10. Romulo 7. Ronald Barcellos 16. Vinicius Paiva
Coaches
Azevedo M.	Moreira E.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
16', Tavinho 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Tavinho ↓, Vinicius Paiva ↑,
46', Ze Gabriel ↓, Iury Castilho ↑,
46', Clayson ↓, de Pena Carlos ↑,
52', 1 - 0, Pedro Perotti ⚽, de Pena Carlos (A),
55', Juninho 🟨,
59', Madson ↓, Augusto ↑,
60', Juninho ↓, Romulo ↑,
60', Ivan Alvarino ↓, Kauan Alemao ↑,
63', de Pena Carlos 🟨,
67', Habraao ↓, Patrick ↑,
75', Diego Galo ↓, Helio Borges ↑,
77', Biel Fonseca ↓, Yago Felipe ↑,
81', Luis Oyama 🟨,
81', Luis Oyama ↓, Ortiz C. ↑,
90+1', Iury Castilho 🟨,
90+2', Patrick 🟨,
90+5', Pedro Perotti 🟨,
90+6', Felipinho 🟨,
90+6', Helio Borges 🟨,

Preview

A mid-table team takes on a leader in this match (ranked 14 and 5 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie B (Promotion ~ Play Offs: Final)).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Recife won 3.

At the moment, both teams are looking strong and ready to play.

Recife might have a minor edge in this game.

There will not play in Recife: Ze Roberto (Inactive)

There will not play in Novorizontino: Eduardo Brock (Injury) Jordi (Inactive) Marlon (Inactive) Nicolas Careca (Injury)

There are questionable in Novorizontino: Maykon Jesus (Inactive) Tavinho (Injury)

In the last 6 head-to-head matches, Recife won 3 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 6:3. (average 1:0.5).

Including home matches between the teams, Recife won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 3:2. (average 1:0.7).

Outrights of Brazilian Serie B for now

Novorizontino: 12.63% Sport Recife: 0.44%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
4	Novorizontino	31	15	9	7	52:27	25	54
8	Sport Recife	32	13	11	8	44:34	10	50

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Sport Recife
Brazilian Serie B
18.04.26	América Mineiro - Sport Recife	0:0 ✺
Brazilian Copa do Nordeste
15.04.26	Sport Recife - Maranhão	5:0 ✺
Brazilian Serie B
11.04.26	Sport Recife - Avaí	2:2 ✺
Brazilian Copa do Nordeste
08.04.26	Sport Recife - Retrô Brasil	3:0 ✺
Brazilian Serie B
04.04.26	Londrina - Sport Recife	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.8 TWTWW
- Grêmio Novorizontino
Brazilian Serie B
19.04.26	Grêmio Novorizontino - Athletic Club	2:1 ✺
Brazilian Copa Sul Sudeste
15.04.26	Operário Ferroviario - Grêmio Novorizontino	1:1 ✺
Brazilian Serie B
12.04.26	América Mineiro - Grêmio Novorizontino	0:3 ✺
Brazilian Copa Sul Sudeste
09.04.26	Grêmio Novorizontino - São Bernardo	1:0 ✺
Brazilian Serie B
05.04.26	Grêmio Novorizontino - CRB Maceio	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.2 WTWWT

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie B
11.10.24	Grêmio Novorizontino - Sport Recife	1:3
24.06.24	Sport Recife - Grêmio Novorizontino	1:2
05.08.23	Sport Recife - Grêmio Novorizontino	1:0
30.04.23	Grêmio Novorizontino - Sport Recife	0:0
30.08.22	Sport Recife - Grêmio Novorizontino	1:0
17.05.22	Grêmio Novorizontino - Sport Recife	0:0

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