Match Info

Serie B - Round 5

Date: 18 April 2026, Saturday

Location: Mineirão (Belo Horizonte)

Referee: Bauermann G. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Claro TV+, Disney+, ESPN, IT tv Plus, Sky+, SportyNet, Vivo Play, Zapping


	América Mineiro		Sport Recife

	1	X	2
	1.91	3.3	4	Watch
	2.02	3.2	3.6
	2.07	3.42	3.93
	2.07	3.32	3.58
	2.05	3.1	3.4
	2.08	3.18	3.6	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.03 ↓ (2.53)	3.25 ↑ (3)	3.69 ↑ (2.87)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

América Mineiro
45.9%

Draw
28.7%

Sport Recife
25.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

36.7%

31%

32.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

36.9%

31.2%

32.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

América Mineiro has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+9.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in América Mineiro's performance.

Sport Recife has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Sport Recife might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for América Mineiro than the current prediction. (-9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with América Mineiro that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Sport Recife than the current prediction. (+6.8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Sport Recife could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
86.7%	0%	13.3%

América Mineiro - Sport Recife Predictions

Users Predictions: 15 users predict this event. América MG will win (votes: 13 - 86.7%). Recife will win (votes: 2 - 13.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for América MG: 69.5% – 100%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -0.5 - América MG (2.27) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DNB - América MG (1.70) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): América Mineiro will win (3 of 3 users predict this - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 5 Selected Experts predict this event. América MG (votes: 5 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Gustavo (G) 42. Jhonny 3. Nathan Pelae 4. Rafa Barcelos (C) 29. Dalbert 8. Felipe Amaral 77. Segovia M. 97. Val Soares 33. Yago Santos 11. Thauan 17. Gonzalo Mastriani	26. Thiago Couto (G) 68. Augusto 5. Benevenuto (C) 3. Marcelo Ajul 60. Felipinho 23. Ze Gabriel 58. Ze Lucas 10. de Pena Carlos 30. Chrystian Barletta 9. Pedro Perotti 95. Iury Castilho
Substitutes
16. Ale 5. Elizari F. 23. Everton Brito 88. Jhonatan Lima 22. Leo Alaba 6. Paulinho 20. Paulo Victor 44. Thallyson 19. William (G) 9. Willian Bigode 10. Yago Souza 67. Yarlen	6. Biel Fonseca 25. Clayson 96. Edson Lucas 11. Gustavo Maia 28. Habraao 1. Halls (G) 13. Madson 31. Marlon Douglas 8. Max Alves 48. Pedro Martins 7. Yago Felipe
Coaches
Roger Silva	Azevedo M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
9', Augusto 🟨,
32', Iury Castilho 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Ze Lucas ↓, Biel Fonseca ↑,
46', Augusto ↓, Madson ↑,
51', Rafa Barcelos 🟨,
61', Iury Castilho ↓, Marlon Douglas ↑,
62', Marcelo Ajul ↓, Habraao ↑,
74', Dalbert ↓, Paulinho ↑,
74', Yago Santos ↓, Jhonatan Lima ↑,
84', Gonzalo Mastriani ↓, Paulo Victor ↑,
84', Segovia M. ↓, Ale ↑,
84', Felipe Amaral ↓, Leo Alaba ↑,
85', Madson 🟨,
90+3', Ze Gabriel 🟨,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, América MG won 3.

América MG has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Recife is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Recently, Recife has had a series of home games.

In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.

There are questionable in América MG: Ricardo Silva (Inactive)

There are questionable in Recife: Ze Marcos (Injury) Ze Roberto (Inactive)

In the last 12 head-to-head matches, América MG won 7 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 25:11. (average 2.1:0.9).

Including home matches between the teams, América MG won 3 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 13:6. (average 2.2:1).

Outrights of Brazilian Serie B for now

Sport Recife: 0.44%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
8	Sport Recife	32	13	11	8	44:34	10	50
19	America MG ✔	32	4	5	23	21:53	-32	17

Last Results with these Odds

Sport Recife - the odds 2.87 are the expected chance of winning is 32.31%, but this team recently wins 14% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- América Mineiro
Brazilian Copa Sul Sudeste
15.04.26	América Mineiro - Sampaio Corrêa FE	2:1 ✺
Brazilian Serie B
12.04.26	América Mineiro - Grêmio Novorizontino	0:3 ✺
Brazilian Copa Sul Sudeste
08.04.26	Tombense - América Mineiro	3:3 ✺
Brazilian Serie B
05.04.26	Athletic Club - América Mineiro	1:1 ✺
01.04.26	América Mineiro - Botafogo SP	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.6 WLTTL
- Sport Recife
Brazilian Copa do Nordeste
15.04.26	Sport Recife - Maranhão	5:0 ✺
Brazilian Serie B
11.04.26	Sport Recife - Avaí	2:2 ✺
Brazilian Copa do Nordeste
08.04.26	Sport Recife - Retrô Brasil	3:0 ✺
Brazilian Serie B
04.04.26	Londrina - Sport Recife	1:2 ✺
01.04.26	Sport Recife - Vila Nova	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.3 WTWWT

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie B
28.10.24	América Mineiro - Sport Recife	2:1
13.07.24	Sport Recife - América Mineiro	1:1
Brazilian Serie A
10.11.21	Sport Recife - América Mineiro	2:3
19.07.21	América Mineiro - Sport Recife	0:1
Brazilian Serie B
20.09.19	Sport Recife - América Mineiro	0:2
19.05.19	América Mineiro - Sport Recife	1:2
Brazilian Serie A
22.08.18	Sport Recife - América Mineiro	0:2

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