Match Info

Champions League - League phase - Round 1

Date: 9 September 2026, Wednesday

Location: Estádio José Alvalade (Lisbon)

Referee: Eskas E. (Nor)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	SuperSport LaLiga
Argentina	Disney+, ESPN 4
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 4, Q Football Asia
Australia	Stan Sport
Azerbaijan	CBC Sport
Belgium	Play Sports 4
Bolivia	ESPN 4
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Canada	DAZN Canada, fubo Sports Network
Colombia	ESPN 4
Croatia	Arena Sport 7
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Czech-republic	Nova Sport 6, Oneplay
Denmark	TV3 MAX, Viaplay
Ecuador	ESPN 4
Europe	Go3 Extra Sports Baltic
Finland	MTV Katsomo+, MTV Max
France	Canal+ Live 4
Germany	DAZN Deutsch
Hungary	RTL+
Iceland	SÝN Sport 3
Italy	Sky Sport 254, Sky Sport Uno
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Mexico	TNT Sports
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Norway	TV2 Play
Paraguay	ESPN 4
Peru	Disney+, ESPN 4
Poland	Canal+ Extra 3
Romania	Digi Sport 4, Prima Sport 4, Prima TV
Serbia	Arena Premium 4
Slovakia	Nova Sport 6, Voyo
Slovenia	SportKlub 3
Spain	M+ Liga de Campeones 6, Movistar Plus+
Sweden	Viaplay
Turkey	TRT 1
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 5
United-kingdom	HBO Max, TNT Sports 6
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	Paramount+, SportsEngine Play
Venezuela	Disney+, ESPN 4


	Sporting Lisbon		Galatasaray

	1	X	2
	1.60	4.33	4.75
	1.61	4.33	4.80
	1.61	4.30	5.00
	1.65	4.50	5.30
	1.72	4.15	4.48	Watch
	1.60	4.45	5.35
	1.69	4.48	4.68
	1.63	4.60	5.00
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.64 ↓ (1.93)	4.39 ↑ (3.72)	4.92 ↑ (3.78)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

The best margin for this event is 1.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Sporting Lisbon
58.6%

Draw
21.9%

Galatasaray
19.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

49.3%

25.6%

25.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

50.6%

24.9%

24.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Sporting Lisbon has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+9.3%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Sporting Lisbon's performance.

Galatasaray has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Galatasaray might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Sporting Lisbon than the current prediction. (-8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Sporting Lisbon that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Galatasaray than the current prediction. (+5.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Galatasaray could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
73.7%	17.1%	9.2%

Sporting Lisbon - Galatasaray Predictions

Users Predictions: 76 users predict this event. Sporting will win (votes: 56 - 73.7%). Galatasaray will win (votes: 7 - 9.2%). It will Tie (votes: 13 - 17.1%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Sporting: 63.8% – 83.6%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 14 Selected Experts predict this event. Sporting (votes: 8 - 57.1%). Galatasaray (votes: 4 - 28.6%). Tie (votes: 2 - 14.3%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 3.5 - over (2.33) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 1.5, 1st Half - over (2.22) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (1.51) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

New Consensus by Tipsters:

BTTS - yes (1.62) (votes: 93%) ⭐ Best Value.

O/U 2.5 - over (1.53) (votes: 88%) ⭐ Best Value.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Silva R. (G) 13. Vagiannidis G. 72. Quaresma E. 25. Inacio G. (C) 20. Araujo M. 5. Altimira S. 77. Doumbia I. 10. Catamo G. 17. Zalazar R. 31. Luis Guilherme 97. Suarez L.	1. Cakir U. (G) 7. Sallai R. 6. Sanchez D. 4. Jakobs I. 17. Elmali E. 34. Torreira L. 8. Gabriel Sara 10. Sane L. 11. Akgun Y. (C) 53. Yilmaz B. 83. Batrakov A.
Substitutes
4. Andersen S. 6. Debast Z. 28. Derry J. 50. Dias R. 73. Felicissimo E. 22. Fresneda I. 58. Goncalves F. 7. Ioannidis F. 19. Irankunda N. 30. Kaique Pereira (G) 9. Nel R. 21. Pedro Lima	42. Bardakci A. 3. Bitshiabu E. 70. Buyuk E. (G) 21. Gul D. 20. Gundogan I. 27. Leao R. 73. Lus B. 74. Nhaga R. 18. Ugochukwu L. 24. Yilmaz J. (G)
Coaches
Borges R.	Buruk O.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
5', 0 - 1, Inacio G. (Own goal), Torreira L. (A),
23', Altimira S. 🟨,
27', 1 - 1, Catamo G. ⚽,
43', Suarez L. 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 0)
52', Elmali E. 🟨,
57', 2 - 1, Suarez L. (Penalty Awarded),
58', Sane L. ↓, Leao R. ↑,
63', 3 - 1, Zalazar R. ⚽,
65', Batrakov A. ↓, Gul D. ↑,
66', Zalazar R. ↓, Goncalves F. ↑,
74', Suarez L. ↓, Ioannidis F. ↑,
74', Doumbia I. ↓, Andersen S. ↑,
80', Gul D. 🟨,
85', Gabriel Sara ↓, Nhaga R. ↑,
85', Torreira L. ↓, Ugochukwu L. ↑,
85', Akgun Y. ↓, Gundogan I. ↑,
85', Quaresma E. ↓, Debast Z. ↑,
85', Vagiannidis G. ↓, Fresneda I. ↑,
87', Buruk O. 🟨,
90+5', Jakobs I. 🟨,

Preview

Sporting is in fantastic form, winning most of its recent matches (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Galatasaray is showing top-class performance now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

In this match, Sporting is the team to beat.

There will not play in Sporting: Ba I. (Knock) Santos N. (Muscle Injury) Simoes J. (Foot Injury)

There will not play in Galatasaray: Aydin E. (Off the roster) Ayhan K. (Off the roster) Guner A. (Off the roster) Guvenc G. (Muscle Injury) Karatas K. (Off the roster) Lemina M. (Muscle Injury) Nas S. (Off the roster) Osimhen V. (Injury) Singo W. (Thigh Injury) Unyay A. (Off the roster) Yilmaz A. (Off the roster)

We predict that Sporting will win today's game, with odds of 1.79.

Recently, there has been no match between the teams.

Outrights of UEFA Champions League for now

Sporting CP: 0.74% Galatasaray: 0.59%

Standings

League phase

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
7	Sporting CP	1	1	0	0	3:1	2	3
30	Galatasaray	1	0	0	1	1:3	-2	0

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Sporting Lisbon
Liga Portugal
05.09.26	Sporting Lisbon - Nacional	2:0 ✺
28.08.26	Rio Ave - Sporting Lisbon	0:4 ✺
22.08.26	Sporting Lisbon - Alverca	3:1 ✺
14.08.26	Sporting Lisbon - Vitoria Guimarães	3:2 ✺
08.08.26	Estrela da Amadora - Sporting Lisbon	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.9 WWWWT
- Galatasaray
Turkish Super League
04.09.26	İstanbul Başakşehir - Galatasaray	2:3 ✺
29.08.26	Galatasaray - Göztepe	3:2 ✺
21.08.26	Erzurumspor - Galatasaray	0:4 ✺
14.08.26	Galatasaray - Çorum	2:2 ✺
Club Friendly
02.08.26	Galatasaray - Rennes	3:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.6 WWWTT

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