Match Info

Liga Portugal - Round 5

Date: 5 September 2026, Saturday

Location: Estádio José Alvalade (Lisbon)

Referee: Pinheiro J. (Por)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	DSports 2
Asia	beIN Sports MENA Xtra 1, beIN Sports MENA Xtra 1, beIN Sports MENA Xtra 1
Austria	Laola1
Brazil	Disney+
Cyprus	Cytavision Sports 6, Cytavision Sports 6
Denmark	Bold+
Ecuador	DAZN, DSports 2
France	beIN Connect, beIN Sports MAX 4
Germany	Laola1
Greece	COSMOTE Sport 3
Hungary	Sport 2
Lithuania	Sport 1
Mexico	Claro Sports
Poland	Eleven Sports 4
Romania	Digi Sport 3
South-america	DGO Latin America
Sweden	TV4 Play, TV4 Sportkanalen
Turkey	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 2
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 3, MEGOGO Sport
Uruguay	DAZN, DSports 2
Usa	SportsEngine Play
Venezuela	DAZN, DSports 2


	Sporting Lisbon		Nacional

	1	X	2
	1.09	8.5	19	Watch
	1.17	7.75	13.50
	1.17	6.1	18	Watch
	1.13	9.94	19.83
	1.13	9.01	18.86	Watch
	1.1	10	22
	1.12	10.4	23	Watch
	1.12	8.5	18.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.13 ↓ (1.2)	8.78 ↑ (6.8)	19.09 ↑ (13.37)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.50

The best margin for this event is 3.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Sporting Lisbon
84.2%

Draw
10.8%

Nacional
5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

79%

13.9%

7.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Sporting Lisbon has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Sporting Lisbon's performance.

Nacional has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

Sporting Lisbon - Nacional Predictions

Users Predictions: 10 users predict this event. Sporting will win (votes: 10 - 100%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Sporting: 100% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Sporting (votes: 2 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 8.5 - under (1.00) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH +2.5 - Nacional (1.76) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Sporting (votes: 2 - 66.7%). Nacional (votes: 1 - 33.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Silva R. (G) 22. Fresneda I. 6. Debast Z. 25. Inacio G. (C) 20. Araujo M. 5. Altimira S. 77. Doumbia I. 10. Catamo G. 17. Zalazar R. 58. Goncalves F. 97. Suarez L.	1. Marin R. (G) 34. Leo Santos (C) 33. Goncalves C. 38. Ze Vitor 52. Wesley Gasolina 8. Baeza M. 6. Matheus Dias 21. Kokolo W. 11. Gavriel S. 7. Jensen M. 99. Pablo Ruan
Substitutes
4. Andersen S. 28. Derry J. 50. Dias R. 73. Felicissimo E. 7. Ioannidis F. 19. Irankunda N. 30. Kaique Pereira (G) 31. Luis Guilherme 9. Nel R. 21. Pedro Lima 72. Quaresma E. 13. Vagiannidis G.	10. Daniel Junior 88. Deivison 2. de la Cruz D. I. 20. Djalo M. 31. Dongmo D. 15. Labidi C. 50. Medeiros de Freitas K. V. (G) 17. Nava F. 9. Obando A.
Coaches
Borges R.	Joao Giao

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
5', Araujo M. 🟨,
20', Altimira S. 🟨,
32', 1 - 0, Suarez L. (Penalty Awarded),
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Leo Santos ↓, Deivison ↑,
48', Jensen M. 🟨,
49', 2 - 0, Goncalves F. ⚽, Suarez L. (A),
62', Pablo Ruan ↓, Obando A. ↑,
62', Jensen M. ↓, Labidi C. ↑,
67', Catamo G. ↓, Luis Guilherme ↑,
67', Zalazar R. ↓, Irankunda N. ↑,
67', Suarez L. ↓, Ioannidis F. ↑,
73', Gavriel S. ↓, Djalo M. ↑,
78', Araujo M. ↓, Vagiannidis G. ↑,
80', Baeza M. ↓, Daniel Junior ↑,
87', Altimira S. ↓, Andersen S. ↑,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Sporting won 5.

Sporting has shown excellent form with a series of wins in recent matches (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Nacional is currently in poor form (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Nacional may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Sporting is the obvious favorite.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Sporting won 16 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 42:9. (average 2.1:0.5).

Including home matches between the teams, Sporting won 9 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 20:4. (average 2:0.4).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
2	Sporting CP	8	5	3	0	20:9	11	18
15	Nacional	7	1	1	5	7:15	-8	4

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Sporting Lisbon
Liga Portugal
28.08.26	Rio Ave - Sporting Lisbon	0:4 ✺
22.08.26	Sporting Lisbon - Alverca	3:1 ✺
14.08.26	Sporting Lisbon - Vitoria Guimarães	3:2 ✺
08.08.26	Estrela da Amadora - Sporting Lisbon	2:2 ✺
Club Friendly
31.07.26	Sporting Lisbon - Nottingham Forest	4:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.9 WWWTW
- Atletico Nacional
Liga Portugal
30.08.26	Nacional - Estrela da Amadora	2:3 ✺
23.08.26	Vitoria Guimarães - Nacional	1:0 ✺
16.08.26	Nacional - Estoril Praia	2:0 ✺
10.08.26	Santa Clara - Nacional	2:2 ✺
Club Friendly
01.08.26	Marítimo - Nacional	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.8 LLWTL

Latest Head to Head

Liga Portugal
01.02.26	Sporting Lisbon - Nacional	2:1
23.08.25	Nacional - Sporting Lisbon	1:4
25.01.25	Sporting Lisbon - Nacional	2:0
Portuguese League Cup
29.10.24	Sporting Lisbon - Nacional	3:1
Liga Portugal
17.08.24	Nacional - Sporting Lisbon	1:6
01.05.21	Sporting Lisbon - Nacional	2:0
08.01.21	Nacional - Sporting Lisbon	0:2

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