Match Info

LaLiga2 - Round 30

Date: 15 March 2026, Sunday

Location: Estadio El Molinón (Gijón)

Referee: Gonzalez Esteban J. A. (Esp)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	Disney+
Australia	beIN Connect
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport 4
Brazil	Disney+
Croatia	Arena Sport 7, MAXtv To Go
Denmark	TV2 Play
Finland	MTV Max
France	beIN Connect, beIN Sports MAX 10, beIN Sports MAX 6, Free
India	FanCode, FanCode
Indonesia	beIN Connect, Vidio
Malaysia	beIN SPORTS MAX
Malta	GO TV, TSN Malta 7
Mexico	Izzi TV, Sky Sport
New-zealand	beIN Connect
North-central-america	Sky Sports Norte
Peru	Disney+
Philippines	beIN SPORTS MAX
Portugal	DAZN 2, DAZN / App
Serbia	Arena Sport 1x2
Singapore	beIN SPORTS MAX
Spain	DAZN Espana, LaLiga Hypermotion, Movistar Plus+, Orange Futbol 2
Sweden	TV4 Play, TV4 Sportkanalen
Thailand	beIN SPORTS MAX
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 5, MEGOGO Ukraine
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	ESPN App, ESPN+
Venezuela	Disney+


	Sporting de Gijón		Castellón

	1	X	2
	3.5	3.7	1.96	Watch
	3.15	3.35	2.12
	3.51	3.63	2.11
	3.34	3.58	2.11	Watch
	3.3	3.3	2.05
	3.43	3.62	2.06	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.37 ↑ (2.85)	3.53 ↑ (3.31)	2.07 ↓ (2.47)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 3.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Sporting de Gijón
27.9%

Draw
26.6%

Castellón
45.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

33.2%

28.6%

38.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

33.6%

28.9%

37.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Sporting de Gijón has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Sporting de Gijón's form might have worsened.

Castellón has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Castellón's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Sporting de Gijón than the current prediction. (+5.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Sporting de Gijón, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Castellón than the current prediction. (-7.6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Castellón, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
27.3%	27.3%	45.5%

Sporting de Gijón - Castellón Predictions

Users Predictions: 11 users predict this event. Sporting de Gijón will win (votes: 3 - 27.3%). Castellón will win (votes: 5 - 45.5%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 27.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Castellón: 16.1% – 74.9%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Tie (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH 0 - Sporting de Gijón (2.37) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Sporting de Gijón (votes: 2 - 66.7%). Tie (votes: 1 - 33.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
13. Joel C. (G) 20. Vazquez K. (C) 15. Vazquez P. 5. Sanchez D. 12. Olivan B. 2. Rosas G. 36. Rodriguez M. 14. Corredera A. 17. Dubasin J. 9. Ferrari A. 19. Otero J.	13. Matthys R. (G) 22. Mellot J. 5. Jimenez A. (C) 4. Sienra A. 12. Alcazar L. 16. Cipenga B. 8. Barri 15. Gerenabarrena B. 18. Santiago P. 9. Camara O. 21. Calatrava A.
Substitutes
8. Bernal J. 7. Campos G. 18. Coundoul A. 23. Curbelo E. 3. Garcia P. 39. Ordonez M. (G) 27. Oyon A. 4. Perrin L. 11. Queipo D. 24. Smith J. 30. Venteo I. (G)	1. Abedzadeh A. (G) 3. Brignani F. 29. De Nipoti T. 6. Doue M. 23. Garcia A. 19. Jakobsen A. 7. Mabil A. 25. Ronaldo 14. Sanchez R. 10. Suero I. 2. Tincho 55. Willman M.
Coaches
Jimenez B.	Hernandez P.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
9', Jimenez A. 🟨,
12', Vazquez K. 🟨,
32', 0 - 1, Calatrava A. (Penalty Awarded),
42', 1 - 1, Otero J. ⚽, Rosas G. (A),
45+5', Barri 🟨,
2nd Half (3 - 0)
47', 2 - 1, Ferrari A. ⚽, Rosas G. (A),
50', Ferrari A. ↓, Campos G. ↑,
60', Corredera A. 🟨,
62', Santiago P. ↓, Suero I. ↑,
62', Barri ↓, Sanchez R. ↑,
65', Mellot J. 🟥,
76', 3 - 1, Otero J. ⚽, Dubasin J. (A),
78', Gerenabarrena B. ↓, Doue M. ↑,
82', Camara O. ↓, Garcia A. ↑,
82', Jimenez A. ↓, Brignani F. ↑,
84', Rodriguez M. ↓, Smith J. ↑,
84', Vazquez K. ↓, Garcia P. ↑,
89', 4 - 1, Garcia P. ⚽,
90+2', Dubasin J. ↓, Coundoul A. ↑,
90+4', Calatrava A. 🟨,

Preview

Enjoy a meeting between a mid-ranked team and one of the leaders (ranked 9 and 4 in the zone Promotion ~ LaLiga2 (Promotion ~ Play Offs: Semi~finals)).

Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.

Castellón may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.

There will not play in Sporting de Gijón: Cuenca A. (Injury) Gelabert Pina C. (Yellow Cards) Loum M. (Injury) Nacho Martin (Injury)

There will not play in Castellón: Aurelio D. (Knee Injury) Ruiz S. (Yellow Cards)

There are questionable in Sporting de Gijón: Yanez R. (Injury)

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Sporting de Gijón won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 7:10. (average 1.4:2).

Including home matches between the teams, Sporting de Gijón won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 3:1. (average 1.5:0.5).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
3	Castellon	9	6	2	1	15:4	11	20
8	Gijon	8	4	1	3	8:8	0	13

Last Results with these Odds

Castellón - the odds 2.47 are the expected chance of winning is 38.27%, but this team recently wins 55% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Sporting de Gijón
Spanish LaLiga2
08.03.26	FC Andorra - Sporting de Gijón	1:0 ✺
02.03.26	Sporting de Gijón - Leganés	0:0 ✺
22.02.26	Sporting de Gijón - Valladolid	2:2 ✺
15.02.26	Albacete Balompié - Sporting de Gijón	1:1 ✺
08.02.26	Sporting de Gijón - Huesca	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.3 LTTTW
- CD Castellón
Spanish LaLiga2
07.03.26	Real Sociedad B - Castellón	4:2 ✺
28.02.26	Castellón - Racing Santander	1:3 ✺
21.02.26	Las Palmas - Castellón	1:1 ✺
15.02.26	Castellón - Deportivo A Coruña	2:0 ✺
08.02.26	Valladolid - Castellón	0:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.8 LLTWW

Latest Head to Head

Spanish LaLiga2
05.10.25	Castellón - Sporting de Gijón	3:1
05.05.25	Castellón - Sporting de Gijón	4:3
14.10.24	Sporting de Gijón - Castellón	2:1
24.01.21	Castellón - Sporting de Gijón	2:0
02.11.20	Sporting de Gijón - Castellón	1:0

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