Match Info

Copa del Rey - 1/16-finals

Date: 16 December 2025, Tuesday

Location: Estadio El Molinón (Gijón)

Where to Watch on TV:


Austria	DAZN
Brazil	ESPN 4
Finland	Veikkaus TV
France	DAZN France
Germany	DAZN Deutsch
India	FanCode, FanCode
Portugal	Sport TV7
Saudi-arabia	Shahid
Spain	LaLiga TV Bar 4, M+ LaLiga 4
Switzerland	DAZN Switzerland
Usa	ESPN App, ESPN+
Venezuela	Inter, Meridiano


	Sporting de Gijón		Valencia

	1	X	2
	3.5	3.25	2.1	Watch
	3.45	3.2	2.08
	3.7	3.29	2.16
	10.31	4.51	1.34	Watch
	3.6	3.1	2	Watch
	3.73	3.32	2.15	Watch
	3.8	3.25	2
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.58 ↑ (2.55)	3.42 ↑ (3.17)	1.98 ↓ (2.61)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Sporting de Gijón
21.5%

Draw
28.8%

Valencia
49.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

35.9%

28.9%

35.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

35.5%

29.2%

35.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Sporting de Gijón has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-14.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Sporting de Gijón's form might have worsened.

Valencia has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+14.7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Valencia's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Sporting de Gijón than the current prediction. (+14%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Sporting de Gijón, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Valencia than the current prediction. (-14.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Valencia, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
11.5%	15.4%	73.1%

Sporting de Gijón - Valencia Predictions

Users Predictions: 25 users predict this event. Sporting de Gijón will win (votes: 3 - 12%). Valencia will win (votes: 18 - 72%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 16%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Valencia: 54.4% – 89.6%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH 0 - Valencia (1.55) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 0.5, 1st Half - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Valencia will win (9 of 12 users predict this - 75%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 13 Selected Experts predict this event. Sporting de Gijón (votes: 1 - 7.7%). Valencia (votes: 10 - 76.9%). Tie (votes: 2 - 15.4%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
13. Joel C. (G) 20. Vazquez K. 15. Vazquez P. 4. Perrin L. 3. Garcia P. 16. Cortes O. 36. Rodriguez M. 24. Smith J. 11. Queipo D. 7. Campos G. 9. Caicedo J.	25. Agirrezabala J. (G) 20. Foulquier D. 4. Diakhaby M. 5. Tarrega C. (C) 21. Vazquez J. 17. Ramazani L. 8. Guerra J. 18. Pepelu 19. Raba D. 15. Beltran L. 16. Lopez D.
Substitutes
8. Bernal J. 14. Corredera A. 18. Coundoul A. 23. Curbelo E. 34. Garcia A. D. 22. Kembo Y. 26. Martinez I. 6. Nacho Martin 19. Otero J. 5. Sanchez D. 1. Yanez R. (G)	10. Almeida A. 3. Copete J. 12. Correia T. 9. Duro H. 14. Gaya J. 29. Nunez L. 27. Otorbi D. 11. Rioja L. 13. Rivero C. (G) 26. Rubo 23. Ugrinic F.
Coaches
Jimenez B.	Corberan C.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
4', 0 - 1, Beltran L. ⚽,
28', Vazquez K. 🟨,
37', Smith J. 🟨,
38', Tarrega C. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Diakhaby M. ↓, Copete J. ↑,
48', 0 - 2, Raba D. ⚽, Pepelu (A),
59', Beltran L. ↓, Rioja L. ↑,
59', Pepelu ↓, Ugrinic F. ↑,
66', Garcia P. ↓, Garcia A. D. ↑,
66', Campos G. ↓, Martinez I. ↑,
66', Vazquez P. ↓, Kembo Y. ↑,
67', Queipo D. ↓, Coundoul A. ↑,
72', Lopez D. ↓, Duro H. ↑,
76', Ugrinic F. 🟨,
76', Agirrezabala J. 🟨,
79', Raba D. ↓, Otorbi D. ↑,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Sporting de Gijón won 1.

Sporting de Gijón is undoubtedly in great shape (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Valencia has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Valencia could have a small edge in this match.

In the last 8 head-to-head matches, Sporting de Gijón won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 5 matches, and goals 5:16. (average 0.6:2).

Including home matches between the teams, Sporting de Gijón won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 3:8. (average 0.8:2).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Sporting de Gijón
Spanish LaLiga2
13.12.25	Sporting de Gijón - Granada	1:0 ✺
06.12.25	Real Sociedad B - Sporting de Gijón	0:1 ✺
Spanish Copa del Rey
03.12.25	Mirandés - Sporting de Gijón	0:2 ✺
Spanish LaLiga2
28.11.25	Sporting de Gijón - FC Andorra	1:1 ✺
23.11.25	Huesca - Sporting de Gijón	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11 WWWTL
- CF Valencia
Spanish LaLiga
13.12.25	Atlético Madrid - Valencia	2:1 ✺
07.12.25	Valencia - Sevilla	1:1 ✺
Spanish Copa del Rey
04.12.25	Cartagena - Valencia	1:2 ET ✺
Spanish LaLiga
01.12.25	Rayo Vallecano - Valencia	1:1 ✺
21.11.25	Valencia - Levante	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.1 LTWTW

Latest Head to Head

Spanish Copa del Rey
18.01.23	Sporting de Gijón - Valencia	0:4
15.01.19	Valencia - Sporting de Gijón	3:0
08.01.19	Sporting de Gijón - Valencia	2:1
Spanish LaLiga
11.03.17	Valencia - Sporting de Gijón	1:1
16.10.16	Sporting de Gijón - Valencia	1:2
31.01.16	Valencia - Sporting de Gijón	0:1
12.09.15	Sporting de Gijón - Valencia	0:1

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