Match Info

Copa de Primera - Clausura - Round 13

Date: 6 October 2026, Tuesday

Location: Estadio Martín Torres (Asunción)

Referee: Romero B. (Par)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	DirecTV Sports
Paraguay	Tigo Sports
Usa	Fanatiz


	Sportivo Ameliano		Rubio Ñu

	1	X	2
	2.25	3.00	2.90	Watch
	2.15	3.10	2.90
	2.28	3.15	3.25	Watch
	2.38	3.30	3.18
	2.22	3.39	3.15	Watch
	2.30	3.20	3.10
	2.36	3.15	3.05	Watch
	2.27	3.10	2.95
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.28 ↑ (2.02)	3.17 ↓ (3.25)	3.06 ↓ (3.55)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Sportivo Ameliano
40.6%

Draw
29.1%

Rubio Ñu
30.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

45.7%

28.4%

26%

Our Initial ML Estimation

47.4%

27.4%

25.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Sportivo Ameliano has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Sportivo Ameliano's form might have worsened.

Rubio Ñu has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Sportivo Ameliano than the current prediction. (+6.8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Sportivo Ameliano, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Rubio Ñu than the current prediction. (-5.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Rubio Ñu, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

Sportivo Ameliano - Rubio Ñu Predictions

Users Predictions: Sportivo Ameliano will win (5 of 5 users predict this - 100%).
Confidence interval (95%): 100% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
35. Sanchez A. (G) 13. Peralta R. 5. Benitez H. 22. Falabella A. 19. Paredes A. (C) 15. Rodriguez W. 8. Moreira E. 24. Ayala L. 20. Larralde V. 14. Paez E. 9. Ocampos C.	25. Fragueda F. (G) 13. Cabanas V. 2. Ferreira R. 3. Vallejos J. (C) 5. Alvarez Benitez P. 35. Montiel L. 15. Nunez C. 23. Leiva T. 26. Fretes S. 9. Ruiz Diaz R. 29. Alfonso O.
Substitutes
4. Aranda P. 1. Balbuena J. (G) 6. Benitez J. 34. Benitez M. 25. Bruno L. 10. Cabral R. 32. Camargo G. M. 40. Contrera A. 26. Gonzalez J. 18. Ortiz L. 17. Torales R. 7. Vera F.	18. Acosta M. 7. Alfonso E. 19. Garrone M. 36. Gimenez C. 16. Gonzalez J. 27. Ledesma A. 32. Maldonado L. (G) 17. Paredes K. 40. Perez E. 14. Ramos M. 8. Rojas R. 11. Roldan M.
Coaches
Nanni R.	Torrente J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
18', Alvarez Benitez P. 🟨,
35', 0 - 1, Fretes S. ⚽, Ruiz Diaz R. (A),
40', Falabella A. 🟨,
45', Peralta R. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Paez E. ↓, Ortiz L. ↑,
47', Moreira E. 🟨,
58', 0 - 2, Fretes S. ⚽, Nunez C. (A),
60', Montiel L. ↓, Gimenez C. ↑,
60', Ruiz Diaz R. ↓, Perez E. ↑,
60', Larralde V. ↓, Camargo G. M. ↑,
60', Moreira E. ↓, Cabral R. ↑,
67', Alfonso O. ↓, Rojas R. ↑,
69', Fretes S. 🟨,
70', Ayala L. ↓, Vera F. ↑,
79', Rodriguez W. ↓, Torales R. ↑,
80', Fretes S. ↓, Ramos M. ↑,
87', Fragueda F. 🟨,
89', Vera F. 🟨,
90+2', 1 - 2, Torales R. ⚽,

Preview

Important points are at stake as a mid-tier club meets a struggling opponent (ranked 7th and 10th).

Sportivo Ameliano has experienced an up-and-down run in recent matches (last 5 matches: 2 wins).

Rubio Ñu has suffered a run of successive defeats (last 5 matches: 0 wins).

Sportivo Ameliano could enjoy a physical edge thanks to more rest days ahead of this match.

Sportivo Ameliano is expected to hold a slight competitive edge in this match.

In the last 5 head-to-head meetings, Sportivo Ameliano has recorded 3 wins, 2 draws, and 0 losses, with a goal aggregate of 7:4 (averaging 1.4:0.8 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Sportivo Ameliano against this opponent, the record stands at 1 win, 1 draw, and 0 losses, with 3:2 goals (averaging 1.5:1 per game).

Standings

Clausura

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
7	Ameliano	13	4	6	3	15:15	0	18
10	Rubio Nu	13	3	3	7	15:24	-9	12

Last Results with these Odds

Sportivo Ameliano - the odds 2.02 are the expected chance of winning is 45.65%, but this team recently wins 67% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Sportivo Ameliano
Paraguayan Primera Division
25.09.26	Nacional Asuncion - Sportivo Ameliano	1:1 ✺
19.09.26	Libertad Asuncion - Sportivo Ameliano	1:1 ✺
11.09.26	Sportivo Ameliano - Sportivo San Lorenzo	1:0 ✺
06.09.26	Sportivo Luqueño - Sportivo Ameliano	1:2 ✺
02.09.26	Sportivo Ameliano - Sportivo Trinidense	0:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.8 TTWWL
- Rubio Ñu
Copa Paraguay
30.09.26	Cerro Porteño - Rubio Ñu	2:1 ✺
Paraguayan Primera Division
26.09.26	Rubio Ñu - 2 de Mayo	2:2 ✺
19.09.26	Cerro Porteño - Rubio Ñu	1:0 ✺
13.09.26	Rubio Ñu - Nacional Asuncion	0:1 ✺
06.09.26	Libertad Asuncion - Rubio Ñu	4:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.3 LTLLL

Latest Head to Head

Paraguayan Primera Division
28.07.26	Rubio Ñu - Sportivo Ameliano	1:1
23.03.26	Rubio Ñu - Sportivo Ameliano	1:2
25.01.26	Sportivo Ameliano - Rubio Ñu	2:2
Paraguayan Division Intermedia
17.10.21	Rubio Ñu - Sportivo Ameliano	0:1
05.07.21	Sportivo Ameliano - Rubio Ñu	1:0

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