Match Info

Copa de Primera - Clausura - Round 10

Date: 11 September 2026, Friday

Location: Estadio Arsenio Erico (Asunción)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	DirecTV Sports
Paraguay	Tigo Sports
Usa	Fanatiz, SportsEngine Play


	Sportivo Ameliano		Sportivo San Lorenzo

	1	X	2
	1.67	3.40	4.50	Watch
	1.65	3.50	4.40
	1.67	3.60	4.70	Watch
	1.77	3.75	4.77
	1.75	3.72	4.46	Watch
	1.73	3.60	4.70
	1.72	3.59	4.79	Watch
	1.67	3.40	4.40
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.7 ↑ (1.62)	3.57 ↓ (3.65)	4.59 ↓ (5.04)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 4.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Sportivo Ameliano
54.1%

Draw
25.8%

Sportivo San Lorenzo
20.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

56.7%

25.1%

18.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

59.4%

24%

17.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Sportivo Ameliano has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.6%)

Sportivo San Lorenzo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Sportivo Ameliano than the current prediction. (+5.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Sportivo Ameliano, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Sportivo San Lorenzo than the current prediction. (-2.7%)

Sportivo Ameliano - Sportivo San Lorenzo Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
35. Sanchez A. (G) 13. Peralta R. 5. Benitez H. 22. Falabella A. 19. Paredes A. (C) 15. Rodriguez W. 24. Ayala L. 20. Larralde V. 10. Cabral R. 14. Paez E. 9. Ocampos C.	12. Quinonez W. (G) 29. Garcia M. 19. Caceres L. (C) 4. Doldan J. 20. Meza Montiel D. 8. Amarilla R. 16. Benitez A. 32. Aragon F. 22. Ferreira Gonzalez K. 23. Ferreira M. 28. Gerzel G.
Substitutes
4. Aranda P. 1. Balbuena J. (G) 6. Benitez J. 34. Benitez M. 25. Bruno L. 40. Contrera A. 39. Dominguez N. 8. Moreira E. 29. Olmedo L. 18. Ortiz L. 17. Torales R. 7. Vera F.	24. Aguero M. 26. Duarte J. 2. Esteche L. 31. Franco L. (G) 13. Fretes I. 21. Gonzalez H. 17. Machuca B. 27. Ortiz E. 15. Pinatares B. 14. Salcedo J. 7. Salcedo S. 6. Villamayor H.
Coaches
Nanni R.	Fornasari P.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
5', Peralta R. 🟨,
26', Gerzel G. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
58', Ferreira Gonzalez K. ↓, Ortiz E. ↑,
62', Peralta R. ↓, Moreira E. ↑,
62', Larralde V. ↓, Aranda P. ↑,
68', Paez E. ↓, Ortiz L. ↑,
73', Amarilla R. ↓, Machuca B. ↑,
74', Aragon F. ↓, Pinatares B. ↑,
74', Cabral R. ↓, Torales R. ↑,
74', Ayala L. ↓, Vera F. ↑,
84', Caceres L. 🟨,
85', 1 - 0, Ocampos C. (Penalty Awarded),
88', Meza Montiel D. ↓, Salcedo S. ↑,
88', Gerzel G. ↓, Duarte J. ↑,
90+4', Paredes A. 🟨,
90+5', Ortiz E. 🟨,

Preview

This match features a clash between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 6 and 12).

Recent performances by Sportivo Ameliano have been up and down (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Sportivo San Lorenzo has been on a rough run of results (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

In this match, Sportivo Ameliano is considered a favorite.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Sportivo Ameliano won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 3:1. (average 1.5:0.5).

Including home match between the teams, Sportivo Ameliano won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 1:0.

Standings

Clausura

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
7	Ameliano	13	4	6	3	15:15	0	18
12	San Lorenzo	13	0	3	10	4:22	-18	3

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Sportivo Ameliano
Paraguayan Primera Division
06.09.26	Sportivo Luqueño - Sportivo Ameliano	1:2 ✺
02.09.26	Sportivo Ameliano - Sportivo Trinidense	0:3 ✺
30.08.26	Guaraní Asuncion - Sportivo Ameliano	1:1 ✺
22.08.26	Sportivo Ameliano - Deportivo Recoleta	3:1 ✺
16.08.26	Olimpia Asuncion - Sportivo Ameliano	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.3 WLTWL
- Sportivo San Lorenzo
Paraguayan Primera Division
05.09.26	Sportivo San Lorenzo - 2 de Mayo	1:2 ✺
01.09.26	Rubio Ñu - Sportivo San Lorenzo	3:1 ✺
28.08.26	Sportivo San Lorenzo - Nacional Asuncion	0:3 ✺
24.08.26	Libertad Asuncion - Sportivo San Lorenzo	1:0 ✺
16.08.26	Cerro Porteño - Sportivo San Lorenzo	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 LLLLL

Latest Head to Head

Paraguayan Primera Division
31.03.26	Sportivo San Lorenzo - Sportivo Ameliano	1:2
31.01.26	Sportivo Ameliano - Sportivo San Lorenzo	1:0

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