The best margin for this event is 3.8%, offered by
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Current Win Probability
Sportivo Luqueño 29%
Draw 28.2%
Sportivo Ameliano 42.8%
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
35.2%
29.5%
35.2%
Our Initial ML Estimation
35.7%
29.1%
34.7%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Sportivo Luqueño has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.2%)
Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Sportivo Luqueño's form might have worsened.
Sportivo Ameliano has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.6%)
Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Sportivo Ameliano's recent form is better than expected.
ML Model estimates a higher probability for Sportivo Luqueño than the current prediction. (+6.7%)
Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Sportivo Luqueño, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.
ML Model estimates a lower probability for Sportivo Ameliano than the current prediction. (-8.1%)
Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Sportivo Ameliano, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.
12. Mongelos F. (G) 4. Morales L. 2. Barreto M. 6. Wiechniak F. 23. Cantero A. 15. Maldonado S. 21. Ojeda M. 10. Bogado G. 29. Muro T. 11. Ruiz O. 20. Maggi I. (C)
35. Sanchez A. (G) 13. Peralta R. 26. Gonzalez J. (C) 22. Falabella A. 19. Paredes A. 20. Larralde V. 15. Rodriguez W. 14. Paez E. 10. Cabral R. 24. Ayala L. 9. Ocampos C.
Substitutes
24. Beltran S. 14. Benitez F. 1. Campisi N. (G) 37. Comas L. 5. Diaz J. 30. Franco T. 9. Gonzalez W. 8. Maiz A. 34. Martinez Cubilla A. M. 22. Ocampos S. 7. Pereira K. 25. Ramos J.
4. Aranda P. 1. Balbuena J. (G) 5. Benitez H. 6. Benitez J. 34. Benitez M. 25. Bruno L. 40. Contrera A. 8. Moreira E. 29. Olmedo L. 18. Ortiz L. 17. Torales R. 7. Vera F.
Coaches
Lopez R.
Nanni R.
Key Events of the Match
1st Half (0 - 1)
35', 0 - 1, Ocampos C. ⚽, Gonzalez J. (A),
44', Rodriguez W. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Maldonado S. ↓, Maiz A. ↑,
52', 0 - 2, Ocampos C. ⚽,
61', Ojeda M. ↓, Ocampos S. ↑,
69', Ayala L. ↓, Ortiz L. ↑,
69', Rodriguez W. ↓, Benitez J. ↑,
69', Ruiz O. ↓, Gonzalez W. ↑,
78', Gonzalez J. 🟨,
80', 1 - 2, Bogado G. (Penalty Awarded),
80', Paez E. ↓, Bruno L. ↑,
80', Peralta R. ↓, Aranda P. ↑,
84', Cabral R. ↓, Moreira E. ↑,
Preview
Enjoy a game between evenly matched mid-table sides (ranked 8 and 6).
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Sportivo Luqueño won 1.
In recent matches, Sportivo Luqueño has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 2 wins).
Sportivo Ameliano's performance has dropped in recent matches (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).
Sportivo Luqueño may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.
In the last 17 head-to-head matches, Sportivo Luqueño won 4 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 18:21. (average 1.1:1.2).
Including home matches between the teams, Sportivo Luqueño won 1 match, drew 4 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 5:8. (average 0.6:0.9).
Standings
Clausura
Pl
W
D
L
Diff
Pts
7
Ameliano
13
4
6
3
15:15
0
18
9
Sp. Luqueno
13
4
1
8
14:24
-10
13
Last Results with these Odds
Sportivo Luqueño - the odds 2.6 are the expected chance of winning is 35.23%, but this team recently wins 47% of matches with these odds.
Sportivo Ameliano - the odds 2.6 are the expected chance of winning is 35.23%, but this team recently wins 27% of matches with these odds.
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Mongelos F. (G) 
Morales L. 
Wiechniak F. 
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