Match Info

Copa de Primera - Clausura - Round 11

Date: 20 September 2026, Sunday

Location: Estadio Feliciano Cáceres (Luque)

Referee: Lopez D. (Par)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	DirecTV Sports
Paraguay	Tigo Sports
Usa	Fanatiz


	Sportivo Luqueño		Deportivo Recoleta

	1	X	2
	2	3.3	3.1	Watch
	2.05	3.30	3.00
	2.02	3.35	3.2	Watch
	2.14	3.63	3.33
	2.19	3.54	3.07	Watch
	2.07	3.55	3.2
	2.1	3.5	3.24	Watch
	2	3.35	3.1
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.07 ↓ (2.3)	3.44 ↑ (3.4)	3.16 ↑ (3)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 4.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Sportivo Luqueño
44.3%

Draw
26.7%

Deportivo Recoleta
29.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

40.9%

27.7%

31.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

39%

26.4%

32.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Sportivo Luqueño has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.4%)

Deportivo Recoleta has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Sportivo Luqueño than the current prediction. (-5.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Sportivo Luqueño that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Deportivo Recoleta than the current prediction. (+3.8%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
25%	75%	0%

Sportivo Luqueño - Deportivo Recoleta Predictions

Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. Sportivo Luqueño will win (votes: 1 - 25%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 75%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Campisi N. (G) 22. Ocampos S. 2. Barreto M. 6. Wiechniak F. 23. Cantero A. 14. Benitez F. 37. Comas L. (C) 8. Maiz A. 10. Bogado G. 11. Ruiz O. 20. Maggi I.	13. Toledo O. (G) 2. Echeguren Zarza F. A. 4. Pereira M. 32. Monzon L. 18. Rios P. 36. Ferreira B. 7. Dominguez R. (C) 38. Franco A. 37. Falcon J. 30. Charpentier P. 9. Ortiz R.
Substitutes
28. Balbuena A. 24. Beltran S. 3. Brizuela A. 5. Diaz J. 9. Gonzalez W. 15. Maldonado S. 12. Mongelos F. (G) 29. Muro T. 21. Ojeda M. 7. Pereira K. 19. Perez M. 25. Ramos J.	22. Barreto O. 6. Espinola J. 12. Ferreira N. (G) 14. Figueredo C. 33. Gonzalez A. 5. Marotta N. 28. Mendoza L. 23. Nunez J. 11. Parzajuk K. 31. Schupp M. 10. Silva A. 24. Vidal T.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
20', Rios P. 🟨,
38', Charpentier P. 🟨,
39', Falcon J. ↓, Schupp M. ↑,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
57', Dominguez R. ↓, Espinola J. ↑,
57', Charpentier P. ↓, Gonzalez A. ↑,
60', Maiz A. ↓, Ojeda M. ↑,
60', Comas L. ↓, Muro T. ↑,
71', Ruiz O. ↓, Gonzalez W. ↑,
76', Ortiz R. ↓, Parzajuk K. ↑,
76', Franco A. ↓, Silva A. ↑,
78', Muro T. 🟨,
85', 1 - 0, Ojeda M. ⚽, Bogado G. (A),
87', Maggi I. ↓, Perez M. ↑,
87', Ocampos S. ↓, Brizuela A. ↑,
90', Parzajuk K. 🟥,

Preview

An exciting matchup between two close rivals in the standings (ranked 9th and 11th).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Sportivo Luqueño won 3.

The recent form of both sides has fallen below expectations.

Sportivo Luqueño may face physical fatigue compared to their opponent, having played more matches in recent days.

Sportivo Luqueño is expected to hold a slight competitive edge in this match.

In the last 6 head-to-head meetings, Sportivo Luqueño has recorded 4 wins, 2 draws, and 0 losses, with a goal aggregate of 8:4 (averaging 1.3:0.7 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Sportivo Luqueño against this opponent, the record stands at 1 win, 2 draws, and 0 losses, with 2:1 goals (averaging 0.7:0.3 per game).

Standings

Clausura

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
9	Sp. Luqueno	13	4	1	8	14:24	-10	13
11	Recoleta	13	2	2	9	14:26	-12	8

Last Results with these Odds

Sportivo Luqueño - the odds 2.3 are the expected chance of winning is 40.93%, but this team recently wins 22% of matches with these odds.

Deportivo Recoleta - the odds 3 are the expected chance of winning is 31.38%, but this team recently wins 25% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Sportivo Luqueño
Paraguayan Primera Division
13.09.26	Olimpia Asuncion - Sportivo Luqueño	3:0 ✺
06.09.26	Sportivo Luqueño - Sportivo Ameliano	1:2 ✺
01.09.26	2 de Mayo - Sportivo Luqueño	2:2 ✺
28.08.26	Sportivo Luqueño - Rubio Ñu	2:1 ✺
24.08.26	Nacional Asuncion - Sportivo Luqueño	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.3 LLTWL
- Deportivo Recoleta
Paraguayan Primera Division
12.09.26	Deportivo Recoleta - Sportivo Trinidense	1:3 ✺
07.09.26	Guaraní Asuncion - Deportivo Recoleta	2:0 ✺
03.09.26	Deportivo Recoleta - Cerro Porteño	1:3 ✺
29.08.26	Deportivo Recoleta - Olimpia Asuncion	1:2 ✺
Copa Paraguay
26.08.26	Deportivo Santaní - Deportivo Recoleta	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.8 LLLLW

Latest Head to Head

Paraguayan Primera Division
11.04.26	Sportivo Luqueño - Deportivo Recoleta	2:1
13.02.26	Deportivo Recoleta - Sportivo Luqueño	1:2
07.11.25	Deportivo Recoleta - Sportivo Luqueño	2:3
23.08.25	Sportivo Luqueño - Deportivo Recoleta	0:0
20.05.25	Sportivo Luqueño - Deportivo Recoleta	0:0
16.03.25	Deportivo Recoleta - Sportivo Luqueño	0:1

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