Match Info

Copa de Primera - Clausura - Round 14

Date: 11 October 2026, Sunday 🏁 Finished

Location: Estadio Tigo La Huerta (Asunción) 🌤️ ...

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Argentina	19:20	DirecTV Sports
Paraguay	19:20	Tigo Sports
Usa	18:20	Fanatiz


	Libertad Asuncion		Guaraní Asuncion

	1	X	2
	1.85	3.25	3.80	Watch
	1.85	3.20	3.75
	1.94	3.35	3.65	Watch
	1.90	3.42	4.40
	2.09	3.34	3.48	Watch
	1.85	3.35	4.35
	1.91	3.28	4.12
	1.89	3.25	3.80
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.91 ↓ (2)	3.31 ↑ (3.3)	3.92 ↑ (3.71)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 4.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Libertad Asuncion
48.4%

Draw
28%

Guaraní Asuncion
23.6%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

46.6%

28.3%

25.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

50%

30.4%

23.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Libertad Asuncion has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.8%)

Guaraní Asuncion has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Libertad Asuncion than the current prediction. (+1.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Guaraní Asuncion than the current prediction. (-0.2%)

Libertad Asuncion - Guaraní Asuncion Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Morinigo Acosta R. M. (C) 2. Benitez A. 3. Rojas R. 5. Flores G. 4. Gimenez N. 8. Carrizo F. 20. Fernandez H. 21. Sanabria L. 19. Franco I. 9. Aguilar G. 11. Vera E.	31. Martinez M. (G) 4. Mendez A. 2. Segovia I. 15. Servin T. 33. Allende L. 36. Martinez L. (C) 34. Maldonado M. 10. Anasco M. 25. Gomez G. 17. Cespedes V. 9. Recalde J.
Substitutes
13. Bogarin J. 28. Fernandez M. 31. Fernandez T. 7. Manzur A. 33. Martinez C. 38. Meza J. 32. Nequecaur L. 26. Ramirez I. 29. Rojas V. (G) 30. Vera O. R. 22. Villalba P. 24. Villalba R.	21. Arrua C. 12. Dionisi G. (G) 16. Doria L. 26. Fernandez D. 40. Fernandez F. 11. Garcia J. 23. Jacquet M. 29. Llano J. 14. Rodriguez Echeverria R. O. 39. Rolon C. 18. Romero T. 22. Velazquez J.
Coaches
Valdez N.	Arce F.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
16', 1 - 0, Aguilar G. ⚽,
21', 1 - 1, Anasco M. ⚽,
25', Cespedes V. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Rojas R. ↓, Fernandez T. ↑,
46', Maldonado M. ↓, Fernandez D. ↑,
56', 1 - 2, Carrizo F. (Own goal),
61', Carrizo F. ↓, Manzur A. ↑,
61', Fernandez H. ↓, Ramirez I. ↑,
61', Franco I. ↓, Villalba R. ↑,
65', Anasco M. ↓, Jacquet M. ↑,
75', Recalde J. 🟨,
75', Allende L. 🟨,
77', 2 - 2, Vera E. (Penalty Awarded),
81', Cespedes V. ↓, Fernandez F. ↑,
81', Recalde J. ↓, Romero T. ↑,
83', Aguilar G. ↓, Fernandez M. ↑,
85', Martinez L. 🟨,
87', Gomez G. ↓, Llano J. ↑,
90+3', Manzur A. 🟨,

Preview

This match features a clash between a top-table contender and a mid-table team (ranked 2nd and 6th).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Libertad won 1.

Both teams enter this match with positive momentum from recent weeks.

Libertad may face physical fatigue compared to their opponent, having played more matches in recent days.

A closely fought contest is anticipated, with Libertad holding a narrow advantage.

In the last 20 head-to-head meetings, Libertad has recorded 6 wins, 7 draws, and 7 losses, with a goal aggregate of 22:26 (averaging 1.1:1.3 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Libertad against this opponent, the record stands at 2 wins, 3 draws, and 5 losses, with 11:19 goals (averaging 1.1:1.9 per game).

Standings

Clausura

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
3	Libertad Asuncion	16	9	3	4	24:17	7	30
6	Guarani	16	6	7	3	18:14	4	25

Last Results with these Odds

Libertad Asuncion - the odds 2 are the expected chance of winning is 46.57%, but this team recently wins 40% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Libertad Asuncion
Paraguayan Primera Division
05.10.26	Deportivo Recoleta - Libertad Asuncion	1:2 ✺
28.09.26	Libertad Asuncion - Olimpia Asuncion	0:1 ✺
Copa Paraguay
23.09.26	Fernando de la Mora - Libertad Asuncion	1:2 penalties ✺
Paraguayan Primera Division
19.09.26	Libertad Asuncion - Sportivo Ameliano	1:1 ✺
11.09.26	2 de Mayo - Libertad Asuncion	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.3 WLWTW
- Guaraní Asuncion
Paraguayan Primera Division
03.10.26	Guaraní Asuncion - Sportivo San Lorenzo	1:1 ✺
25.09.26	Sportivo Luqueño - Guaraní Asuncion	0:1 ✺
18.09.26	Sportivo Trinidense - Guaraní Asuncion	0:1 ✺
12.09.26	Guaraní Asuncion - Cerro Porteño	1:1 ✺
07.09.26	Guaraní Asuncion - Deportivo Recoleta	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.7 TWWTW

Latest Head to Head

Paraguayan Primera Division
02.08.26	Guaraní Asuncion - Libertad Asuncion	2:1
05.04.26	Guaraní Asuncion - Libertad Asuncion	1:0
08.02.26	Libertad Asuncion - Guaraní Asuncion	3:3
09.11.25	Guaraní Asuncion - Libertad Asuncion	1:2
Copa Paraguay
01.10.25	Libertad Asuncion - Guaraní Asuncion	2:3 penalties
Paraguayan Primera Division
25.08.25	Libertad Asuncion - Guaraní Asuncion	0:4
19.04.25	Libertad Asuncion - Guaraní Asuncion	1:3

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