Match Info

Copa de Primera - Clausura - Round 13

Date: 5 October 2026, Monday 🏁 Finished

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Argentina	10:00	DirecTV Sports
Paraguay	10:00	Tigo Sports
Usa	09:00	Fanatiz


	Deportivo Recoleta		Libertad Asuncion

	1	X	2
	4.10	3.50	1.70
	4.10	3.60	1.68
	4.10	3.70	1.75	Watch
	4.43	3.86	1.77
	4.43	3.79	1.74	Watch
	4.35	3.75	1.75
	4.51	3.66	1.74	Watch
	4.10	3.65	1.67
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.27 ↑ (3.8)	3.69 ↑ (3.6)	1.73 ↓ (1.83)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Deportivo Recoleta
21.6%

Draw
25%

Libertad Asuncion
53.4%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

24.2%

25.5%

50.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

23.3%

24.5%

52.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Deportivo Recoleta has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.6%)

Libertad Asuncion has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Deportivo Recoleta than the current prediction. (+1.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Libertad Asuncion than the current prediction. (-1.1%)

Deportivo Recoleta - Libertad Asuncion Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
13. Toledo O. (G) 2. Echeguren Zarza F. A. 4. Pereira M. 32. Monzon L. 18. Rios P. 36. Ferreira B. 7. Dominguez R. (C) 38. Franco A. 17. Baez W. 25. Martino R. 33. Gonzalez A.	12. Morinigo Acosta R. M. (C) 3. Rojas R. 5. Flores G. 23. Freire N. 4. Gimenez N. 28. Fernandez M. 8. Carrizo F. 21. Sanabria L. 19. Franco I. 9. Aguilar G. 11. Vera E.
Substitutes
3. Cardozo L. 30. Charpentier P. 6. Espinola J. 12. Ferreira N. (G) 14. Figueredo C. 21. Garay C. 5. Marotta N. 34. Masi M. 28. Mendoza L. 31. Schupp M. 10. Silva A. 24. Vidal T.	13. Bogarin J. 35. Diaz E. 20. Fernandez H. 31. Fernandez T. 33. Martinez C. 32. Nequecaur L. 26. Ramirez I. 29. Rojas V. (G) 30. Vera O. R. 15. Vera T. 22. Villalba P. 24. Villalba R.
Coaches
Gonzalez J.	Valdez N.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
3', 0 - 1, Vera E. ⚽, Carrizo F. (A),
12', Baez W. 🟨,
18', 1 - 1, Gonzalez A. ⚽, Monzon L. (A),
45+1', Rojas R. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Baez W. ↓, Schupp M. ↑,
46', Fernandez M. ↓, Villalba R. ↑,
46', Freire N. ↓, Fernandez T. ↑,
53', 1 - 2, Vera E. (Penalty Awarded),
64', Franco I. ↓, Bogarin J. ↑,
67', Dominguez R. 🟨,
71', Dominguez R. ↓, Espinola J. ↑,
72', Aguilar G. 🟨,
82', Franco A. ↓, Garay C. ↑,
82', Rios P. ↓, Charpentier P. ↑,
83', Echeguren Zarza F. A. ↓, Figueredo C. ↑,
83', Flores G. ↓, Fernandez H. ↑,
89', Vera E. ↓, Martinez C. ↑,

Preview

A struggling side attempts to pull off an upset against a high-flying opponent (ranked 11th and 2nd).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Recoleta won 1.

Recoleta is going through a lean spell lately (last 5 matches: 1 win).

Libertad is in good shape currently (last 5 matches: 3 wins).

Bookmakers give the edge to Libertad for this game.

In the last 7 head-to-head meetings, Recoleta has recorded 1 win, 3 draws, and 3 losses, with a goal aggregate of 9:15 (averaging 1.3:2.1 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Recoleta against this opponent, the record stands at 1 win, 2 draws, and 0 losses, with 5:4 goals (averaging 1.7:1.3 per game).

Standings

Clausura

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
3	Libertad Asuncion	16	9	3	4	24:17	7	30
11	Recoleta	16	3	3	10	16:28	-12	12

Last Results with these Odds

Libertad Asuncion - the odds 1.83 are the expected chance of winning is 50.25%, but this team recently wins 15% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Deportivo Recoleta
Paraguayan Primera Division
28.09.26	Sportivo San Lorenzo - Deportivo Recoleta	0:0 ✺
Copa Paraguay
24.09.26	Deportivo Recoleta - Guaireña	3:1 ✺
Paraguayan Primera Division
20.09.26	Sportivo Luqueño - Deportivo Recoleta	1:0 ✺
12.09.26	Deportivo Recoleta - Sportivo Trinidense	1:3 ✺
07.09.26	Guaraní Asuncion - Deportivo Recoleta	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.6 TWLLL
- Libertad Asuncion
Paraguayan Primera Division
28.09.26	Libertad Asuncion - Olimpia Asuncion	0:1 ✺
Copa Paraguay
23.09.26	Fernando de la Mora - Libertad Asuncion	1:2 penalties ✺
Paraguayan Primera Division
19.09.26	Libertad Asuncion - Sportivo Ameliano	1:1 ✺
11.09.26	2 de Mayo - Libertad Asuncion	0:2 ✺
06.09.26	Libertad Asuncion - Rubio Ñu	4:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.1 LWTWW

Latest Head to Head

Paraguayan Primera Division
30.07.26	Libertad Asuncion - Deportivo Recoleta	4:1
30.03.26	Libertad Asuncion - Deportivo Recoleta	1:0
02.02.26	Deportivo Recoleta - Libertad Asuncion	2:1
26.10.25	Deportivo Recoleta - Libertad Asuncion	2:2
10.08.25	Libertad Asuncion - Deportivo Recoleta	1:1
14.04.25	Deportivo Recoleta - Libertad Asuncion	1:1
02.02.25	Libertad Asuncion - Deportivo Recoleta	5:2

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