Match Info

Premiership - Round 22

Date: 10 January 2026, Saturday

Location: The SMISA Stadium (Paisley)

Referee: McLean S. (Sco)


	St. Mirren		Falkirk

	1	X	2
	2.05	3.2	3.6	Watch
	2.05	3.3	3.5
	2.12	3.25	3.35	Watch
	2.23	3.28	3.35	Watch
	2.15	3.1	3.4
	2.18	3.2	3.39	Watch
	2.12	3.14	3.6
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.13 ↑ (1.99)	3.21 ↓ (3.26)	3.46 ↓ (3.65)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 5.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

St. Mirren
43.9%

Draw
29.1%

Falkirk
27%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

46.4%

28.3%

25.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

48.6%

27%

24.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

St. Mirren has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.5%)

Falkirk has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for St. Mirren than the current prediction. (+4.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Falkirk than the current prediction. (-2.8%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
54.5%	18.2%	27.3%

St. Mirren - Falkirk Predictions

Users Predictions: 11 users predict this event. St. Mirren will win (votes: 6 - 54.5%). Falkirk will win (votes: 3 - 27.3%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 18.2%).
Confidence interval (95%) for St. Mirren: 25.1% – 83.9%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Falkirk (votes: 1 - 33.3%). Tie (votes: 2 - 66.7%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. George S. (G) 22. Fraser M. (C) 5. King R. 21. Freckleton M. 10. McMenamin C. 88. Phillips K. 4. Donnelly L. 30. Taylor F. 24. John D. 9. Mandron M. 14. N'Lundulu D.	19. Bain S. (G) 28. Lissah F. 20. Allan C. 5. Henderson L. 3. McCann L. 8. Spencer B. (C) 17. Cartwright H. 14. Yeats F. 21. Tait D. 29. Miller C. 16. Stewart B.
Substitutes
16. Campbell A. 18. Dijksteel M. 35. Douglas L. 7. Idowu R. 33. Mooney E. 31. Mullen R. (G) 2. Richardson J. 19. Sobowale T. 3. Tanser S.	2. Adams K. 6. Donaldson C. 7. Graham B. 1. Hogarth N. (G) 10. Nesbitt A. 9. Parkinson B. 23. Ross E. 24. Williams E. 22. Wilson K.
Coaches
Robinson S.	McGlynn J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
22', N'Lundulu D. 🟨,
28', Donnelly L. ↓, Richardson J. ↑,
2nd Half (0 - 2)
46', John D. ↓, Tanser S. ↑,
46', Phillips K. ↓, Campbell A. ↑,
55', 0 - 1, Yeats F. ⚽,
61', 0 - 2, Miller C. ⚽,
65', George S. ↓, Mullen R. ↑,
75', Freckleton M. 🟨,
77', Miller C. ↓, Williams E. ↑,
78', Cartwright H. ↓, Ross E. ↑,
78', Yeats F. ↓, Wilson K. ↑,
78', Stewart B. ↓, Parkinson B. ↑,
79', N'Lundulu D. ↓, Dijksteel M. ↑,
88', Bain S. 🟨,
90+3', Lissah F. ↓, Donaldson C. ↑,

Preview

The game between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 10 in the zone Premiership (Relegation Group: ) and 6 in the zone Promotion ~ Premiership (Championship Group: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, St. Mirren won 2.

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

Falkirk may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

St. Mirren might have a minor edge in this game.

There will not play in St. Mirren: Ayunga J. (Inactive) Baccus K. (Inactive) O'Hara M. (Inactive)

There will not play in Falkirk: Lang T. (Foot Injury) MacIver R. (Injury) Neilson L. (Ankle Injury) Oliver G. (Hamstring Injury)

In the last 13 head-to-head matches, St. Mirren won 2 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 15:22. (average 1.2:1.7).

Including home matches between the teams, St. Mirren won 1 match, drew 2 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 8:9. (average 1.3:1.5).

Outrights of Scottish Premier League for now

Falkirk: 0.38% St. Mirren: 0.38%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
6	St. Mirren	8	3	1	4	8:14	-6	10
11	Falkirk	8	1	3	4	7:11	-4	6

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- St. Mirren
Scottish Premier League
03.01.26	Motherwell - St. Mirren	2:0 ✺
30.12.25	Glasgow Rangers - St. Mirren	2:1 ✺
27.12.25	St. Mirren - Kilmarnock	0:0 ✺
20.12.25	St. Mirren - Livingston	1:0 ✺
Scottish League Cup
14.12.25	St. Mirren - Celtic	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16.5 LLTWW
- Falkirk FC
Scottish Premier League
03.01.26	Falkirk - Aberdeen	1:0 ✺
27.12.25	Dundee - Falkirk	1:0 ✺
20.12.25	Kilmarnock - Falkirk	0:1 ✺
13.12.25	Falkirk - Hearts	0:2 ✺
06.12.25	Hibernian - Falkirk	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.1 WLWLL

Latest Head to Head

Scottish Premier League
13.09.25	Falkirk - St. Mirren	1:2
Scottish Football Championship
28.04.18	Falkirk - St. Mirren	1:0
17.04.18	St. Mirren - Falkirk	1:2
21.10.17	Falkirk - St. Mirren	0:0
05.08.17	St. Mirren - Falkirk	3:1
15.04.17	Falkirk - St. Mirren	2:2
28.01.17	St. Mirren - Falkirk	1:2

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