Match Info

GERMANY: 2. BUNDESLIGA - ROUND 30

Date: 29 April 2023, Saturday

Location: Millerntor-Stadion (Hamburg)

Referee: Burda M. (Ger)

Where to Watch on TV:


Bulgaria	Nova Sport
Czech-republic	Nova Sport 3
Denmark	Viaplay
Finland	Viaplay
Germany	Sky Bundesliga, Sky Sport Bundesliga, Sky Sport Top event
Netherlands	Viaplay
Norway	Viaplay
Poland	Viaplay
Portugal	Eleven Sports
Sweden	Viaplay


	St. Pauli		Arminia Bielefeld

	1	X	2
	2	3.6	3.75	Watch
	1.95	3.6	3.75	Watch
	1.94	3.65	3.65
	2.03	3.62	3.86
	2	3.4	3.5	Watch
	1.94	3.74	3.65	Watch
	2.02	3.65	3.7
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.98 ↑ (1.78)	3.61 ↓ (3.82)	3.69 ↓ (4.09)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 2.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

St. Pauli
47.9%

Draw
26.3%

Arminia Bielefeld
25.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

52.6%

24.6%

22.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

53.3%

24.3%

22.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

St. Pauli has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.7%)

Arminia Bielefeld has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for St. Pauli than the current prediction. (+5.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for St. Pauli, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Arminia Bielefeld than the current prediction. (-3.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
60%	20%	20%

St. Pauli - Arminia Bielefeld Predictions

Users Predictions: 20 users predict this event. St. Pauli will win (votes: 12 - 60%). Arminia will win (votes: 4 - 20%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 20%).
Confidence interval (95%) for St. Pauli: 38.5% – 81.5%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Preview

This match will be played by one of a leader and outsider (ranked 5 and 15).

St. Pauli has the most likely position - 6 (30.02%), project points - 55, currently - 47, not chance of relegated, a very small chance of promoted (<1%), a very small chance of win league (<1%).

Arminia has the most likely position - 16 (22.08%), project points - 36, currently - 29, a chance of relegated (28%), not chance of promoted.

This event has quality 36, small importance 30, match rating 33. (0-100) (fivethirtyeight.com)

Last 5 head-to-head matches St. Pauli won 1.

Both teams are now playing unstable.

St. Pauli could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match St. Pauli is a favorite.

Last 14 head-to-head matches St. Pauli won 4 matches, drawn 6 matches, lost 4 matches and goals 16-19.

Including matches at home between the teams St. Pauli won 3 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 10-7.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC St. Pauli
German 2 Bundesliga
21.04.23	Hamburger SV - St. Pauli	4:3 ✺
16.04.23	St. Pauli - Eintracht Braunschweig	1:2 ✺
08.04.23	Heidenheim - St. Pauli	0:1 ✺
01.04.23	St. Pauli - Jahn Regensburg	1:0 ✺
Club Friendly
24.03.23	St. Pauli - Hannover	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.7 LLWWW
- Arminia Bielefeld
German 2 Bundesliga
22.04.23	Arminia Bielefeld - Hannover	1:3 ✺
16.04.23	Karlsruher - Arminia Bielefeld	4:2 ✺
09.04.23	Arminia Bielefeld - Fortuna Düsseldorf	2:2 ✺
02.04.23	Holstein Kiel - Arminia Bielefeld	2:3 ✺
Club Friendly
22.03.23	Arminia Bielefeld - Groningen	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.2 LLTWT

Latest Head to Head

German 2 Bundesliga
22.10.22	Arminia Bielefeld - St. Pauli	2:0
Club Friendly
18.01.20	St. Pauli - Arminia Bielefeld	3:4
German 2 Bundesliga
21.12.19	St. Pauli - Arminia Bielefeld	3:0
29.07.19	Arminia Bielefeld - St. Pauli	1:1
14.04.19	St. Pauli - Arminia Bielefeld	1:1
04.11.18	Arminia Bielefeld - St. Pauli	1:2
06.05.18	St. Pauli - Arminia Bielefeld	1:0

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