Match Info

GERMANY: 2. BUNDESLIGA - ROUND 26

Date: 1 April 2023, Saturday

Location: Millerntor-Stadion (Hamburg)

Referee: Dankert B. (Ger)

Where to Watch on TV:


Bulgaria	Nova Sport
Croatia	SportKlub
Czech-republic	Nova Sport 3
Denmark	Viaplay
Finland	Viaplay
Germany	Sky Bundesliga
Netherlands	Viaplay
Norway	Viaplay
Poland	Viaplay
Portugal	Eleven Sports
Serbia	SportKlub
Slovenia	Sport TV
Sweden	Viaplay


	St. Pauli		Jahn Regensburg

	1	X	2
	1.53	4	6.5	Watch
	1.52	4.1	6.5	Watch
	1.56	4	5.6
	1.67	3.65	4.4
	1.53	4.22	7.03
	1.5	3.9	6.5	Watch
	1.52	4.25	6.1	Watch
	1.53	4.2	6.2
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.55 ↓ (1.58)	4.04 ↑ (3.97)	6.1 ↑ (5.55)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

St. Pauli
61.1%

Draw
23.4%

Jahn Regensburg
15.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

59.5%

23.6%

16.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

62.3%

22.5%

16.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

St. Pauli has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.6%)

Jahn Regensburg has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for St. Pauli than the current prediction. (+1.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Jahn Regensburg than the current prediction. (+0.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
80%	8%	12%

St. Pauli - Jahn Regensburg Predictions

Users Predictions: St. Pauli will win (20 of 25 users predict this - 80%).
Confidence interval (95%): 64.32% – 95.68%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Preview

This match will be played by one of a leader and outsider (ranked 5 and 14).

St. Pauli has the most likely position - 4 (25.53%), project points - 56, currently - 41, a very small chance of relegated (<1%), a small chance of promoted (7%), a very small chance of win league (<1%).

Regensburg has the most likely position - 16 (14.93%), project points - 37, currently - 26, a chance of relegated (30%), a very small chance of promoted (<1%), not chance of win league.

This event has quality 32, importance 36, match rating 34. (0-100) (fivethirtyeight.com)

Last 5 head-to-head matches St. Pauli won 3.

St. Pauli in the last match got a series victories and it is an a fantastic form (in the last 5 games wins - 5).

Recent matches Regensburg is playing uncertain (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

St. Pauli could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

In this match St. Pauli is a favorite.

Our prediction for today's St. Pauli to win the game is with odds 1.58.

Last 13 head-to-head matches St. Pauli won 5 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 5 matches and goals 19-23.

Including matches at home between the teams St. Pauli won 4 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 14-8.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC St. Pauli
Club Friendly
24.03.23	St. Pauli - Hannover	2:0 ✺
German 2 Bundesliga
19.03.23	Sandhausen - St. Pauli	0:5 ✺
11.03.23	St. Pauli - Greuther Fürth	2:1 ✺
03.03.23	Paderborn - St. Pauli	1:2 ✺
26.02.23	St. Pauli - Hansa Rostock	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16.2 WWWWW
- Jahn Regensburg
German 2 Bundesliga
18.03.23	Jahn Regensburg - Paderborn	1:0 ✺
12.03.23	Holstein Kiel - Jahn Regensburg	1:2 ✺
04.03.23	Jahn Regensburg - Fortuna Düsseldorf	0:1 ✺
24.02.23	Karlsruher - Jahn Regensburg	1:0 ✺
18.02.23	Jahn Regensburg - Hannover	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16.6 WWLLT

Latest Head to Head

German 2 Bundesliga
18.09.22	Jahn Regensburg - St. Pauli	2:0
12.02.22	Jahn Regensburg - St. Pauli	2:3
29.08.21	St. Pauli - Jahn Regensburg	2:0
23.05.21	Jahn Regensburg - St. Pauli	3:0
24.01.21	St. Pauli - Jahn Regensburg	2:0
21.06.20	St. Pauli - Jahn Regensburg	1:1
08.12.19	Jahn Regensburg - St. Pauli	1:0

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