Match Info

GERMANY: 2. BUNDESLIGA - ROUND 9

Date: 7 October 2023, Saturday

Location: Millerntor-Stadion (Hamburg)

Referee: Jollenbeck M. (Ger)

Where to Watch on TV:


Cyprus	Nova Sports
Denmark	Viaplay
Finland	Viaplay
Germany	Sky Sport Bundesliga, Sky Sport Top event, Sport 1
Greece	Nova Sports
Netherlands	Viaplay
Norway	Viaplay
Poland	Viaplay
Slovenia	Sport TV
Sweden	Viaplay
Ukraine	Setanta Sports


	St. Pauli		Nürnberg

	1	X	2
	1.55	4.33	6	Watch
	1.55	4.33	5.5
	1.53	4.2	5.5	Watch
	1.55	4.5	6.08
	1.5	4.33	5.5
	1.53	4.33	5.65	Watch
	1.55	4.4	5.6
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.54 ↓ (1.75)	4.35 ↑ (3.76)	5.69 ↑ (4.37)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 3.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

St. Pauli
61.6%

Draw
21.8%

Nürnberg
16.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

53.6%

24.9%

21.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

55.6%

24%

20.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

St. Pauli has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in St. Pauli's performance.

Nürnberg has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for St. Pauli than the current prediction. (-6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with St. Pauli that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Nürnberg than the current prediction. (+4.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
75%	16.7%	8.3%

St. Pauli - Nürnberg Predictions

Users Predictions: 12 users predict this event. St. Pauli will win (votes: 9 - 75%). Nürnberg will win (votes: 1 - 8.3%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 16.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for St. Pauli: 50.5% – 99.5%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
22. Vasilj N. (G) 5. Wahl H. 8. Smith E. 3. Mets K. 2. Saliakas M. 7. Irvine J. (C) 10. Hartel M. 21. Ritzka L. 17. Afolayan O. 11. Eggestein J. 26. Saad E.	26. Mathenia C. (G) 28. Gyamerah J. 15. Marquez I. 3. Gurleyen A. 29. Handwerker T. 8. Duman T. 6. Flick F. 10. Daehli M. M. 14. Goller B. 7. Lohkemper F. 11. Okunuki K.
Substitutes
19. Albers A. 14. Amenyido E. 16. Boukhalfa C. 30. Burchert S. (G) 25. Dzwigala A. 24. Metcalfe C. 4. Nemeth D. 15. Sinani D. 23. Treu P.	27. Brown N. 33. Daferner C. 5. Geis J. 38. Horn J. 23. Hungbo J. 1. Klaus C. (G) 36. Schleimer L. 42. Uzun C. Y. 22. Valentini E.
Coaches
Hurzeler F.	Fiel C.

Preview

Watch a battle-game between leader and a mid-table team (ranked 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Bundesliga and 8).

Last 5 head-to-head matches St. Pauli won 4.

St. Pauli is in actual amazing shape (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Recent matches Nürnberg is playing unpredictable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

In this match St. Pauli is a favorite.

Our prediction for today's St. Pauli to win the game is with odds 1.59.

Last 17 head-to-head matches St. Pauli won 8 matches, drawn 7 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 21-17.

Including matches at home between the teams St. Pauli won 3 matches, drawn 5 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 9-10.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC St. Pauli
German 2 Bundesliga
30.09.23	Hertha Berlin - St. Pauli	1:2 ✺
23.09.23	St. Pauli - Schalke 04	3:1 ✺
17.09.23	St. Pauli - Holstein Kiel	5:1 ✺
01.09.23	Eintracht Braunschweig - St. Pauli	1:1 ✺
27.08.23	St. Pauli - Magdeburg	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.7 WWWTT
- 1. FC Nürnberg
German 2 Bundesliga
01.10.23	Nürnberg - Magdeburg	1:0 ✺
23.09.23	Eintracht Braunschweig - Nürnberg	2:2 ✺
15.09.23	Nürnberg - Greuther Fürth	1:1 ✺
Club Friendly
07.09.23	Nürnberg - Heidenheim	3:1 ✺
German 2 Bundesliga
02.09.23	Kaiserslautern - Nürnberg	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.6 WTTWL

Latest Head to Head

German 2 Bundesliga
29.01.23	Nürnberg - St. Pauli	0:1
16.07.22	St. Pauli - Nürnberg	3:2
29.04.22	St. Pauli - Nürnberg	1:1
28.11.21	Nürnberg - St. Pauli	2:3
14.02.21	Nürnberg - St. Pauli	1:2
19.10.20	St. Pauli - Nürnberg	2:2
17.05.20	St. Pauli - Nürnberg	1:0

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