Match Info

2. Bundesliga - Round 7

Date: 11 October 2026, Sunday 🏁 Finished

Location: Millerntor-Stadion (Hamburg) 🌤️ ...

Referee: Benen L. (Ger)

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Argentina	08:30	Disney+
Armenia	15:30	Fast Sports
Australia	22:30	beIN Connect
Austria	13:30	Sky Go Austria, Sky Sport Austria Top Event, Sky Sport Bundesliga 1, Sky Sport Bundesliga 2
Chile	08:30	Disney+
Colombia	06:30	Disney+
Croatia	13:30	SportKlub 10
Denmark	13:30	Viaplay
Finland	14:30	Viaplay
Germany	13:30	Sky Go Germany, Sky Sport Bundesliga 1, Sky Sport Bundesliga 2, Sky Sport Bundesliga 3, Sky Sport Top Event, WOW
Hong Kong	19:30	beIN Sports 2, beIN SPORTS MAX, Now Player
Iceland	11:30	Viaplay
Malaysia	19:30	beIN Sports 3, Sooka
Malta	13:30	GO TV, TSN Malta 5
Netherlands	13:30	Viaplay
New Zealand	00:30	beIN Connect
North Macedonia	13:30	MaxTV GO
Norway	13:30	Viaplay
Peru	06:30	Disney+
Portugal	12:30	DAZN / App
Romania	14:30	Prima Sport PPV 2
Saudi Arabia	14:30	MBC Shahid
Serbia	13:30	Arena Sport 5
Singapore	19:30	beIN Sports 3
Spain	13:30	DAZN Espana
Sweden	13:30	Viaplay
Switzerland	13:30	Sky Sport Bundesliga 1, Sky Sport Bundesliga 2, Sky Sport Top Event
Uruguay	08:30	Disney+
Venezuela	07:30	Disney+
International	11:30	OneFootball TV


	St. Pauli		Karlsruher

	1	X	2
	1.67	4.00	4.33	Watch
	1.68	4.00	4.60
	1.70	4.10	4.35	Watch
	1.71	4.16	4.86
	1.73	4.25	4.18	Watch
	1.70	4.10	4.80
	1.71	4.11	4.45	Watch
	1.68	4.00	4.50
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.7 ↓ (1.71)	4.09 ↓ (4.23)	4.51 ↑ (4.25)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 3.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

St. Pauli
55.8%

Draw
23.2%

Karlsruher
21%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

55.4%

22.4%

22.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

57.2%

21.7%

21.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

St. Pauli has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.4%)

Karlsruher has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for St. Pauli than the current prediction. (+1.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Karlsruher than the current prediction. (+0.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
80%	10%	10%

St. Pauli - Karlsruher Predictions

Users Predictions: St. Pauli will win (8 of 10 users predict this - 80%).
Confidence interval (95%): 55.21% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Voll B. (G) 11. Pyrka A. 4. Nemeth D. (C) 21. Ritzka L. 23. Oppie L. 8. Smith E. 24. Metcalfe C. 20. Rasmussen M. 16. Fujita J. 7. Niang Y. 9. Ceesay A.	1. Bernat C. (G) 28. Franke M. 22. Kobald C. 24. Tremoulet S. 36. Pinto Pedrosa R. 10. Wanitzek M. (C) 26. Zor D. H. 33. Bergh V. 3. Ofli D. 13. Fukuda S. 19. Ben Farhat L.
Substitutes
14. Ahlstrand E. 17. Banks S. 25. Dzwigala A. 18. Hara T. 10. Hrgota B. 26. Jones R.J. 19. Kaars M. 22. Klein S. 33. Mitov D. (G)	23. Civeja T. 25. Egloff L. 11. Eichinger N. 30. Himmelmann R. (G) 2. Jung S. 37. Ponente-Ramirez J. 15. Scholl P. 6. Vaananen S. 7. Wiethaup K.
Coaches
Rapp M.	Senft M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
32', 1 - 0, Ceesay A. ⚽, Metcalfe C. (A),
34', Tremoulet S. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
48', Wanitzek M. 🟨,
52', 2 - 0, Ritzka L. ⚽, Smith E. (A),
68', Niang Y. ↓, Kaars M. ↑,
68', Pinto Pedrosa R. ↓, Wiethaup K. ↑,
70', Bergh V. ↓, Ponente-Ramirez J. ↑,
70', Tremoulet S. ↓, Jung S. ↑,
70', Ben Farhat L. ↓, Egloff L. ↑,
73', Ceesay A. ↓, Jones R.J. ↑,
73', Rasmussen M. ↓, Klein S. ↑,
80', Zor D. H. ↓, Civeja T. ↑,
82', Ritzka L. ↓, Dzwigala A. ↑,
82', Metcalfe C. ↓, Hrgota B. ↑,
87', Hrgota B. 🟨,

Preview

A mid-table side takes on an opponent fighting to pull away from the danger zone (ranked 10th and 17th in the Relegation - 3. Liga).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, St. Pauli won 2.

In recent outings, St. Pauli has recorded mixed results (last 5 matches: 1 win).

Karlsruher has struggled for form in recent encounters (last 5 matches: 1 win).

Karlsruher could enjoy a physical edge thanks to more rest days ahead of this match.

St. Pauli carries the favorite tag into this contest.

In the last 20 head-to-head meetings, St. Pauli has recorded 7 wins, 7 draws, and 6 losses, with a goal aggregate of 33:30 (averaging 1.7:1.5 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for St. Pauli against this opponent, the record stands at 5 wins, 2 draws, and 4 losses, with 21:17 goals (averaging 1.9:1.5 per game).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
7	St. Pauli	9	2	6	1	11:9	2	12
17	Karlsruher SC	9	2	2	5	11:20	-9	8

Outrights of German 2 Bundesliga for now

St. Pauli: 3.69%

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC St. Pauli
Club Friendly
03.10.26	St. Pauli - Borussia Mönchengladbach	1:1 ✺
German 2 Bundesliga
20.09.26	Energie Cottbus - St. Pauli	1:1 ✺
12.09.26	St. Pauli - Wolfsburg	1:0 ✺
04.09.26	Arminia Bielefeld - St. Pauli	2:2 ✺
30.08.26	St. Pauli - Kaiserslautern	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.8 TTWTL
- Karlsruher SC
German 2 Bundesliga
19.09.26	Karlsruher - Nürnberg	0:1 ✺
13.09.26	Karlsruher - Energie Cottbus	0:3 ✺
04.09.26	Hannover - Karlsruher	2:2 ✺
29.08.26	Karlsruher - Wolfsburg	2:5 ✺
German DFB Pokal
21.08.26	Preußen Münster - Karlsruher	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.5 LLTLW

Latest Head to Head

Club Friendly
20.07.25	St. Pauli - Karlsruher	6:1
German 2 Bundesliga
06.04.24	Karlsruher - St. Pauli	2:1
28.10.23	St. Pauli - Karlsruher	2:1
28.05.23	St. Pauli - Karlsruher	1:1
12.11.22	Karlsruher - St. Pauli	4:4
05.03.22	St. Pauli - Karlsruher	3:1
25.09.21	Karlsruher - St. Pauli	1:3

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