Match Info

Date: 11 September 2022, Sunday

Location: Millerntor-Stadion (Hamburg)

Referee: Bacher M. (Ger)

Where to Watch on TV:


Denmark	Viaplay
Finland	Viaplay
Germany	Sky Bundesliga, Sky Sport Bundesliga
Greece	Nova Sports
Netherlands	Viaplay
Norway	Viaplay
Poland	Viaplay
Sweden	Viaplay
Turkey	beIN Sports 4
World	beIN Sports Connect


	St. Pauli		Sandhausen

	1	X	2
	1.66	4	5	Watch
	1.68	3.9	4.75	Watch
	1.67	3.9	4.8
	1.7	3.85	4.8
	1.71	4.03	5.08
	1.67	3.75	4.6	Watch
	1.68	4	4.65	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.68 ↓ (1.78)	3.92 ↑ (3.74)	4.81 ↑ (4.13)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

St. Pauli
56.2%

Draw
24.1%

Sandhausen
19.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

52.5%

24.9%

22.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

53.3%

24.5%

22.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

St. Pauli has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.7%)

Sandhausen has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for St. Pauli than the current prediction. (-2.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Sandhausen than the current prediction. (+2.7%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
77.1%	8.6%	14.3%

St. Pauli - Sandhausen Predictions

Users Predictions: 35 users predict this event. St. Pauli will win (votes: 27 - 77.1%). Sandhausen will win (votes: 5 - 14.3%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 8.6%).
Confidence interval (95%) for St. Pauli: 63.2% – 91%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Preview

Team outsider and a mid-table team will meet during this match (ranked 11 and 14).

St. Pauli has the most likely position - 7 (8.4%), has project points - 50, has currently - 9, has a very small chance of relegated (3%), has a small chance of promoted (12%), has a very small chance of win league (4%).

Sandhausen has the most likely position - 15 (11.26%), has project points - 39, has currently - 7, has a chance of relegated (23%), has a very small chance of promoted (1%), has a very small chance of win league (<1%).

This event has small quality 30, small importance 30, small match rating 30. (0-100) (fivethirtyeight.com)

Last 5 head-to-head matches St. Pauli won 2.

Recent matches St. Pauli is playing changeable (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Sandhausen is in cheap shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

St. Pauli could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match St. Pauli is a favorite.

Last 20 head-to-head matches St. Pauli won 7 matches, drawn 8 matches, lost 5 matches and goals 24-26.

Including matches at home between the teams St. Pauli won 5 matches, drawn 4 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 14-8.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC St. Pauli
German 2 Bundesliga
03.09.22	Greuther Fürth - St. Pauli	2:2 ✺
27.08.22	St. Pauli - Paderborn	2:2 ✺
21.08.22	Hansa Rostock - St. Pauli	2:0 ✺
14.08.22	St. Pauli - Magdeburg	3:0 ✺
07.08.22	Kaiserslautern - St. Pauli	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.3 TTLWL
- SV Sandhausen
German 2 Bundesliga
04.09.22	Sandhausen - Kaiserslautern	0:0 ✺
28.08.22	Holstein Kiel - Sandhausen	1:0 ✺
20.08.22	Sandhausen - Nürnberg	1:2 ✺
13.08.22	Karlsruher - Sandhausen	3:2 ✺
05.08.22	Sandhausen - Fortuna Düsseldorf	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.5 TLLLW

Latest Head to Head

German 2 Bundesliga
16.04.22	Sandhausen - St. Pauli	1:1
24.11.21	St. Pauli - Sandhausen	3:1
05.02.21	St. Pauli - Sandhausen	2:1
02.10.20	Sandhausen - St. Pauli	1:0
08.03.20	Sandhausen - St. Pauli	2:2
29.09.19	St. Pauli - Sandhausen	2:0
16.03.19	Sandhausen - St. Pauli	4:0

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