Match Info

GERMANY: 2. BUNDESLIGA - ROUND 27

Date: 31 March 2024, Sunday

Location: Millerntor-Stadion (Hamburg)

Referee: Brand B. (Ger)

Where to Watch on TV:


Bosnia-and-herzegovina	SportKlub
Croatia	SportKlub
Denmark	Viaplay
Finland	Viaplay
Germany	Sky Sport Bundesliga
Netherlands	Viaplay
Norway	Viaplay
Poland	Viaplay
Serbia	SportKlub
Slovenia	SportKlub, Sport TV
Sweden	Viaplay
Turkey	beIN Sports 4


	St. Pauli		Paderborn

	1	X	2
	1.57	4.5	5	Watch
	1.6	4.2	5.25
	1.57	4.2	5	Watch
	1.62	4.32	5.7
	1.6	4.32	5.57
	1.53	4.2	5.5	Watch
	1.61	4.25	5.15	Watch
	1.59	4.3	5.2
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.59 ↓ (1.59)	4.29 ↓ (4.33)	5.3 ↑ (4.98)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 2.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

St. Pauli
59.9%

Draw
22.2%

Paderborn
17.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

59.3%

21.8%

19%

Our Initial ML Estimation

61.1%

21.2%

18.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

St. Pauli has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.6%)

Paderborn has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for St. Pauli than the current prediction. (+1.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Paderborn than the current prediction. (+0.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
94.1%	5.9%	0%

St. Pauli - Paderborn Predictions

Users Predictions: St. Pauli will win (16 of 17 users predict this - 94.12%).
Confidence interval (95%): 82.94% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
22. Vasilj N. (G) 5. Wahl H. 8. Smith E. 3. Mets K. 2. Saliakas M. (C) 7. Irvine J. 36. Kemlein A. 21. Ritzka L. 24. Metcalfe C. 11. Eggestein J. 10. Hartel M.	1. Boevink P. (G) 33. Hoffmeier M. 8. Kinsombi D. 16. Musliu V. 23. Obermair R. 22. Hansen M. 26. Klaas S. 32. Zehnter A. 7. Bilbija F. 39. Grimaldi A. 11. Conteh S.
Substitutes
19. Albers A. 14. Amenyido E. 30. Burchert S. (G) 35. da Silva Moreira E. 25. Dzwigala A. 9. Maurides 4. Nemeth D. 32. Scheller T. 15. Sinani D.	29. Ansah I. 4. Brackelmann C. 37. Brandt J. 24. Heuer J. 21. Huth J. (G) 44. Kojic M. 10. Kostons K. 13. Leipertz R.
Coaches
Hurzeler F.	Kwasniok L.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
30', Metcalfe C. 🟨,
32', 1 - 0, Hartel M. ⚽, Irvine J. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 1)
47', 2 - 0, Ritzka L. ⚽, Saliakas M. (A),
56', 2 - 1, Grimaldi A. ⚽, Conteh S. (A),
66', Grimaldi A. 🟨,
72', Smith E. 🟨,
72', Grimaldi A. 🟨,
81', Obermair R. ↓, Ansah I. ↑,
82', Klaas S. ↓, Kostons K. ↑,
82', Conteh S. ↓, Leipertz R. ↑,
82', Zehnter A. ↓, Heuer J. ↑,
82', Hansen M. ↓, Brackelmann C. ↑,
83', Metcalfe C. ↓, Amenyido E. ↑,
83', Ritzka L. ↓, Dzwigala A. ↑,
87', Eggestein J. ↓, Albers A. ↑,
90+3', Kemlein A. ↓, Scheller T. ↑,

Preview

The most interesting match of the day. Two teams from the very top of the board will meet (ranked 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Bundesliga and 6).

Last 5 head-to-head matches St. Pauli won 1.

St. Pauli is in undoubted good shape (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Recent matches Paderborn is playing uncertain (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

In this match St. Pauli is a favorite.

Our prediction for today's St. Pauli to win the game is with odds 1.6.

Last 18 head-to-head matches St. Pauli won 5 matches, drawn 6 matches, lost 7 matches and goals 27-29.

Including matches at home between the teams St. Pauli won 2 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 17-15.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC St. Pauli
German 2 Bundesliga
16.03.24	Nürnberg - St. Pauli	0:2 ✺
10.03.24	St. Pauli - Hertha Berlin	2:0 ✺
01.03.24	Schalke 04 - St. Pauli	3:1 ✺
23.02.24	Holstein Kiel - St. Pauli	3:4 ✺
18.02.24	St. Pauli - Eintracht Braunschweig	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.3 WWLWW
- SC Paderborn 07
German 2 Bundesliga
15.03.24	Paderborn - Eintracht Braunschweig	1:2 ✺
09.03.24	Schalke 04 - Paderborn	3:3 ✺
03.03.24	Paderborn - Magdeburg	0:0 ✺
23.02.24	Wehen Wiesbaden - Paderborn	1:2 ✺
17.02.24	Paderborn - Holstein Kiel	0:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.8 LTTWL

Latest Head to Head

German 2 Bundesliga
21.10.23	Paderborn - St. Pauli	2:2
03.03.23	Paderborn - St. Pauli	1:2
27.08.22	St. Pauli - Paderborn	2:2
05.02.22	St. Pauli - Paderborn	2:2
21.08.21	Paderborn - St. Pauli	3:1
15.03.21	St. Pauli - Paderborn	0:2
21.11.20	Paderborn - St. Pauli	2:0

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