Match Info

Challenge Cup - Round 4

Date: 23 September 2025, Tuesday

Location: Ochilview Park (Stenhousemuir)


	Stenhousemuir		East Kilbride

	1	X	2
	2.15	3.6	2.7
	2.2	3.7	2.78
	2.2	3.71	2.76
	1.59	4.02	4.89	Watch
	2.23	3.7	2.75
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.07 ↑ (1.8)	3.75 ↓ (3.98)	3.18 ↓ (3.46)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 8.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Stenhousemuir
45.3%

Draw
25.1%

East Kilbride
29.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

50.7%

23%

26.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

54.9%

21.2%

24.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Stenhousemuir has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Stenhousemuir's form might have worsened.

East Kilbride has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Stenhousemuir than the current prediction. (+9.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Stenhousemuir, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for East Kilbride than the current prediction. (-5.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for East Kilbride, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Stenhousemuir - East Kilbride Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
4', 1 - 0, Taylor R. ⚽, Anderson M. (A),
2nd Half (2 - 0)
65', 2 - 0, Anderson M. ⚽, O'Reilly E. (A),
73', 3 - 0, Whyte O. ⚽,

Preview

Stenhousemuir has been on a winning streak and is in great shape (last 5 games: 4 wins).

East Kilbride has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Recently, East Kilbride has had a series of home games.

In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Stenhousemuir won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 3 matches, and goals 4:7. (average 1:1.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Stenhousemuir won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 3:4. (average 1.5:2).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Stenhousemuir
Scottish League One
20.09.25	Stenhousemuir - Peterhead	3:1 ✺
13.09.25	Kelty Hearts - Stenhousemuir	0:1 ✺
Scottish Challenge Cup
06.09.25	Stenhousemuir - Kilmarnock 2	4:0 ✺
Scottish League One
30.08.25	Stenhousemuir - East Fife	1:1 ✺
Scottish Challenge Cup
26.08.25	Annan Athletic - Stenhousemuir	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.9 WWWTW
- East Kilbride FC
Scottish League Two
20.09.25	East Kilbride - Dumbarton	1:1 ✺
13.09.25	Edinburgh City - East Kilbride	2:2 ✺
Scottish Challenge Cup
06.09.25	East Kilbride - Hamilton Academical	2:4 ✺
Scottish League Two
30.08.25	East Kilbride - Forfar Athletic	5:0 ✺
Scottish Challenge Cup
26.08.25	East Kilbride - Motherwell 2	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.9 TTLWW

Latest Head to Head

Club Friendly
02.07.19	East Kilbride - Stenhousemuir	1:0
Scottish League Cup
25.07.17	Stenhousemuir - East Kilbride	1:2
Scottish Cup
05.12.15	East Kilbride - Stenhousemuir	2:1 ET
28.11.15	Stenhousemuir - East Kilbride	2:2

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