Match Info

League One - Round 22

Date: 24 January 2026, Saturday

Location: New Central Park (Kelty)

Where to Watch on TV:


United-kingdom	BBC Alba, BBC iPlayer app, BBC iPlayer, BBC Sport app, BBC Sport


	Kelty Hearts		Stenhousemuir

	1	X	2
	3.8	3.3	1.83	Watch
	3.7	3.4	1.8
	3.75	3.35	1.9	Watch
	4.09	3.49	1.86
	3.83	3.5	1.91	Watch
	3.9	3.3	1.85
	4.04	3.34	1.81	Watch
	3.75	3.4	1.81
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.86 ↓ (4)	3.39 ↑ (3.27)	1.85 ↑ (1.84)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 6.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Kelty Hearts
23.6%

Draw
26.9%

Stenhousemuir
49.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

22.8%

27.8%

49.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

22.3%

27.2%

50.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Kelty Hearts has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.8%)

The chances for Stenhousemuir have remained the same compared to the initial analysis.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Kelty Hearts than the current prediction. (-1.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Stenhousemuir than the current prediction. (+1.1%)

Kelty Hearts - Stenhousemuir Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
46. Gourlay K. (G) 2. Thomas M. 20. Corr D. 35. Brydon J. 3. Paterson B. 15. Clay C. (C) 6. Ferguson A. 7. Moore L. 10. Murray I. 17. McCarvel L. 18. Pettifer A.	1. Jamieson D. (G) 2. Meechan R. 4. Buchanan G. (C) 5. Jamieson N. 14. Bilham K. 6. Graham A. 17. Anderson M. 23. McGill S. 22. Whyte O. 9. Aitken M. 15. Carrick D.
Substitutes
21. Adamson R. (G) 8. Arnott A. 19. Bexfield C. 24. Cooper C. 14. Graham J. 30. Leitch G. 23. Masson C. 29. Trialist 27. Wyllie J. 31. Young G.	12. Cameron Z. 21. Ewen K. 10. Gray F. 34. Lyle C. (G) 7. O'Reilly E. 3. Simpson O. 11. Taylor R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 2)
16', Brydon J. 🟥,
17', 0 - 1, Aitken M. (Penalty Awarded),
41', 0 - 2, Carrick D. ⚽, Meechan R. (A),
45', Paterson B. 🟨,
45+1', Buchanan G. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
47', Aitken M. (Penalty Awarded),
55', Murray I. ↓, Cooper C. ↑,
64', Moore L. ↓, Graham J. ↑,
70', Thomas M. 🟨,
71', Carrick D. ↓, O'Reilly E. ↑,
75', Ferguson A. ↓, Arnott A. ↑,
75', Thomas M. ↓, Wyllie J. ↑,
76', Pettifer A. 🟨,
79', Whyte O. ↓, Ewen K. ↑,
79', Meechan R. ↓, Gray F. ↑,
87', Aitken M. ↓, Cameron Z. ↑,
87', Bilham K. ↓, Simpson O. ↑,
90+2', McCarvel L. 🟨,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Kelty Hearts won 0.

Recent performances by Kelty Hearts have been up and down (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Stenhousemuir is on a winning streak and currently in very good shape (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Stenhousemuir may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Stenhousemuir might have a minor edge in this game.

In the last 10 head-to-head matches, Kelty Hearts won 5 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 13:6. (average 1.3:0.6).

Including home matches between the teams, Kelty Hearts won 3 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 5:1. (average 1:0.2).

Outrights of Scottish League One for now

Kelty Hearts: 5.2%

Last Results with these Odds

Stenhousemuir - the odds 1.84 are the expected chance of winning is 49.41%, but this team recently wins 63% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Kelty Hearts
Scottish Cup
17.01.26	Kelty Hearts - Cove Rangers	2:1 penalties ✺
Scottish League One
10.01.26	Queen of the South - Kelty Hearts	3:1 ✺
03.01.26	Kelty Hearts - Alloa Athletic	1:1 ✺
27.12.25	East Fife - Kelty Hearts	0:1 ✺
20.12.25	Kelty Hearts - Cove Rangers	2:5 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 19.4 WLTWL
- Stenhousemuir
Scottish Cup
17.01.26	Stenhousemuir - Greenock Morton	4:0 ✺
Scottish Challenge Cup
13.01.26	Stirling Albion - Stenhousemuir	1:2 ✺
Scottish League One
10.01.26	Stenhousemuir - East Fife	5:0 ✺
03.01.26	Stenhousemuir - Queen of the South	2:0 ✺
27.12.25	Alloa Athletic - Stenhousemuir	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.6 WWWWT

Latest Head to Head

Scottish League One
08.11.25	Stenhousemuir - Kelty Hearts	2:2
13.09.25	Kelty Hearts - Stenhousemuir	0:1
15.03.25	Stenhousemuir - Kelty Hearts	0:0
11.01.25	Kelty Hearts - Stenhousemuir	0:0
26.10.24	Stenhousemuir - Kelty Hearts	2:1
10.08.24	Kelty Hearts - Stenhousemuir	2:0
Scottish League Two
26.03.22	Kelty Hearts - Stenhousemuir	1:0

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