Match Info

ENGLAND: EFL TROPHY - PLAY OFFS - 1/16-FINALS

Date: 22 November 2022, Tuesday

Location: Broadhall Way (Stevenage)

Referee: Hicks C. (Eng)


	Stevenage Borough		Arsenal U21

	1	X	2
	1.8	3.7	3.4
	1.86	3.7	3.45
	1.86	3.8	3.6
	1.75	4.03	4.18
	1.8	3.5	3.7
	1.82	3.94	3.88
	1.86	3.8	3.45
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.82 ↓ (2.42)	3.78 ↑ (3.59)	3.67 ↑ (2.45)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 5.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Stevenage Borough
50.5%

Draw
24.3%

Arsenal U21
25.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

37.5%

25.4%

37.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

38.3%

26%

36.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Stevenage Borough has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+13%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Stevenage Borough's performance.

Arsenal U21 has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-12%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Arsenal U21 might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Stevenage Borough than the current prediction. (-12.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Stevenage Borough that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Arsenal U21 than the current prediction. (+11.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Arsenal U21 could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
86.7%	6.7%	6.7%

Stevenage Borough - Arsenal U21 Predictions

Users Predictions: 30 users predict this event. Stevenage will win (votes: 26 - 86.7%). Arsenal U21 will win (votes: 2 - 6.7%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 6.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Stevenage: 74.5% – 98.9%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Preview

Recent matches Stevenage is playing unstable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Arsenal U21 is in a first-class shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Stevenage could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

Stevenage will have a small advantage in this match.

Recently, the teams did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Stevenage Borough
English League Two
19.11.22	Grimsby Town - Stevenage Borough	1:1 ✺
12.11.22	Stevenage Borough - Hartlepool United	1:0 ✺
English League Cup
08.11.22	Stevenage Borough - Charlton Athletic	1:2 penalties ✺
English FA Cup
05.11.22	Gateshead - Stevenage Borough	2:3 ✺
English League Two
29.10.22	Colchester United - Stevenage Borough	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.6 TWLWT
- Arsenal U21
English Premier League Cup
19.11.22	Arsenal U21 - Stoke City U21	1:1 ✺
English Premier League 2
06.11.22	Arsenal U21 - Everton U21	3:1 ✺
31.10.22	Arsenal U21 - Crystal Palace U21	1:1 ✺
24.10.22	Leicester City U21 - Arsenal U21	1:2 ✺
English EFL Trophy
18.10.22	Northampton Town - Arsenal U21	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.7 TWTWW

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