Match Info

NPL Premier Division - Round 12

Date: 6 October 2026, Tuesday


	Stockton Town		Bury

	1	X	2
	3.20	3.60	1.87
	3.80	3.65	1.66
	3.15	3.95	1.92
	3.78	4.11	1.78	Watch
	3.10	3.90	1.89
	3.36	3.58	1.88
	3.40	3.65	1.88
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.4 ↑ (2.88)	3.78 ↑ (3.3)	1.84 ↓ (2.05)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Stockton Town
26.7%

Draw
24%

Bury
49.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

30.5%

26.6%

42.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

29.8%

26%

43.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Stockton Town has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.8%)

Bury has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.4%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Bury's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Stockton Town than the current prediction. (+3.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Bury than the current prediction. (-5.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Bury, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Stockton Town - Bury Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (1 - 0)
84', 1 - 0, Nouble F. ⚽,

Preview

A high-stakes clash as a relegation-threatened team welcomes an elite contender (ranked 20th in the Relegation and 8th).

Recent results have been tough for Stockton Town (last 5 matches: 1 win).

Bury is in superb form heading into this trip (last 5 matches: 5 wins).

Stockton Town could enjoy a physical edge thanks to more rest days ahead of this match.

Recently, Bury has enjoyed a sequence of home fixtures.

Bury carries the favorite tag into this contest.

These two teams have no recorded direct encounters in recent history.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
10	Bury	10	5	1	4	19:9	10	16
16	Stockton	12	3	2	7	15:22	-7	11

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Stockton Town
English NPL Premier Division
03.10.26	Hyde United - Stockton Town	2:1 ✺
19.09.26	Stockton Town - Bamber Bridge	5:2 ✺
12.09.26	Warrington Rylands - Stockton Town	1:1 ✺
31.08.26	Stockton Town - Redcar Athletic	0:2 ✺
29.08.26	Avro - Stockton Town	5:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.3 LWTLL
- Bury FC
English FA Cup
03.10.26	Bury - Bromsgrove Sporting	2:1 ✺
English FA Trophy
26.09.26	Bury - Gainsborough Trinity	4:3 penalties ✺
English FA Cup
19.09.26	Bury - Workington	5:1 ✺
English NPL Premier Division
12.09.26	Bury - Emley	4:0 ✺
English FA Cup
05.09.26	Bury - Wythenshawe	8:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.2 WWWWW

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