Match Info

Europa League - League phase - Round 6

Date: 11 December 2025, Thursday

Location: Merkur-Arena (Graz)

Referee: Sylwestrzak D. (Pol)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Sturm Graz		Crvena Zvezda Belgrade

	1	X	2
	3.4	3.9	2
	3.5	4	2
	3.53	3.87	2.04
	3.4	3.85	2	Watch
	3.25	3.5	2.05
	3.48	3.91	2.12
	3.4	3.75	2
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.42 ↑ (2.86)	3.83 ↑ (3.67)	2.03 ↓ (2.29)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 1.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Sturm Graz
27.9%

Draw
25%

Crvena Zvezda Belgrade
47.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

33%

25.7%

41.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

32.4%

25.2%

42%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Sturm Graz has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Sturm Graz's form might have worsened.

Crvena Zvezda Belgrade has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.9%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Crvena Zvezda Belgrade's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Sturm Graz than the current prediction. (+4.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Crvena Zvezda Belgrade than the current prediction. (-5.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Crvena Zvezda Belgrade, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
36.7%	26.7%	36.7%

Sturm Graz - Crvena Zvezda Belgrade Predictions

Users Predictions: 30 users predict this event. Sturm will win (votes: 11 - 36.7%). Crvena Zvezda will win (votes: 11 - 36.7%). It will Tie (votes: 8 - 26.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Sturm: 19.5% – 53.9%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

1X2, 1st Half - draw (2.76) (votes: 0 - 0%) .

DNB - Sturm (2.13) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 50%) .

DC - Crvena Zvezda (1.35) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Crvena Zvezda Belgrade will win (3 of 3 users predict this - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 5 Selected Experts predict this event. Sturm (votes: 1 - 20%). Crvena Zvezda (votes: 4 - 80%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Christensen O. (G) 23. Malic A. 2. Mitchell J. 47. Aiwu E. 17. Karic E. 4. Gorenc Stankovic J. (C) 21. Chukwuani T. 19. Horvat T. 20. Jatta S. 10. Kiteishvili O. 77. Malone M.	1. Matheus (G) 66. Seol Young-Woo 13. Veljkovic M. 5. Rodrigo 23. Tiknizyan N. 33. Krunic R. 21. Elsnik T. 7. Milson 20. Handel T. 4. Ivanic M. (C) 89. Arnautovic M.
Substitutes
22. Beck J. 26. Beganovic B. 14. Bendra K. 40. Bignetti M. (G) 35. Geyrhofer N. 27. Haider G. 25. Hierlander S. 43. Hodl J. 11. Kayombo A. 53. Khudyakov D. (G) 39. Weinhandl L. 46. Wolf J.	71. Avdic A. 80. Babicka S. 6. Bajo M. 17. Bruno Duarte 19. Damjanovic A. 18. Glazer O. (G) 77. Gutesa I. (G) 10. Katai A. 22. Kostov V. 25. Lekovic S. 24. Stankovic N. 40. Zaric L.
Coaches
Saumel J.	Milojevic V.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
11', Malic A. 🟨,
16', Arnautovic M. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Arnautovic M. ↓, Bruno Duarte ↑,
55', 0 - 1, Ivanic M. ⚽, Elsnik T. (A),
66', Chukwuani T. ↓, Hodl J. ↑,
66', Jatta S. ↓, Kayombo A. ↑,
68', Rodrigo 🟨,
70', Ivanic M. 🟨,
78', Krunic R. 🟨,
79', Karic E. ↓, Hierlander S. ↑,
79', Malic A. ↓, Bendra K. ↑,
79', Malone M. ↓, Beganovic B. ↑,
82', Milson ↓, Bajo M. ↑,
87', Ivanic M. ↓, Katai A. ↑,
90', Bendra K. 🟨,
90+5', Handel T. ↓, Kostov V. ↑,
90+8', Mitchell J. 🟨,
90+8', Katai A. 🟨,

Preview

Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.

Crvena Zvezda may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Crvena Zvezda is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

There will not play in Sturm: Borkovic A. (Inactive) Lavalee D. (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Crvena Zvezda: Lucic V. (Inactive) Sandoval K. (Inactive) Tebo Uchenna F. (Red Card)

There are questionable in Sturm: Grgic L. (Injury) Mitchell J. (Injury) Rozga F. (Injury)

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Sturm won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 1:1.

Including home match between the teams, Sturm won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 1:1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Sturm Graz
Austrian Bundesliga
07.12.25	Sturm Graz - Grazer AK	2:1 ✺
03.12.25	Sturm Graz - Swarovski Tirol	1:3 ✺
30.11.25	Hartberg - Sturm Graz	0:1 ✺
UEFA Europa League
27.11.25	Panathinaikos - Sturm Graz	2:1 ✺
Austrian Bundesliga
23.11.25	Sturm Graz - LASK Linz	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.3 WLWLL
- FK Crvena Zvezda Belgrade
Serbian Superliga
07.12.25	Crvena Zvezda Belgrade - Vojvodina	0:1 ✺
04.12.25	Crvena Zvezda Belgrade - Čukarički	3:0 ✺
30.11.25	OFK Beograd - Crvena Zvezda Belgrade	3:4 ✺
UEFA Europa League
27.11.25	Crvena Zvezda Belgrade - FCSB	1:0 ✺
Serbian Superliga
23.11.25	Javor Ivanjica - Crvena Zvezda Belgrade	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.8 LWWWL

Latest Head to Head

Club Friendly
08.07.21	Sturm Graz - Crvena Zvezda Belgrade	1:1

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