Match Info

EUROPE: CHAMPIONS LEAGUE - QUALIFICATION - SEMI-FINALS

Date: 15 August 2023, Tuesday

Location: Merkur-Arena (Graz)

Referee: Jovanovic S. (Srb)

Where to Watch on TV:


Poland	Polsat Sport Extra
Portugal	Eleven Sports 4


	Sturm Graz		PSV Eindhoven

	1	X	2
	3.3	3.75	2.05	Watch
	3.25	3.75	2.05
	3.25	3.65	2.1
	3.3	3.8	2.03
	3.34	3.92	2.09
	3	3.4	2
	3.48	3.88	1.95	Watch
	3.35	3.8	2.1
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.28 ↑ (3.15)	3.74 ↑ (3.57)	2.05 ↓ (2.19)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 3.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Sturm Graz
28.7%

Draw
25.2%

PSV Eindhoven
46.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

30.1%

26.6%

43.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

29.5%

26.1%

44.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Sturm Graz has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.4%)

PSV Eindhoven has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Sturm Graz than the current prediction. (+0.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for PSV Eindhoven than the current prediction. (-1.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
21.7%	13%	65.2%

Sturm Graz - PSV Eindhoven Predictions

Users Predictions: 23 users predict this event. Sturm will win (votes: 5 - 21.7%). PSV will win (votes: 15 - 65.2%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 13%).
Confidence interval (95%) for PSV: 45.7% – 84.7%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Scherpen K. (G) 22. Gazibegovic J. 42. Affengruber D. 5. Wuthrich G. 44. Dante A. 4. Gorenc Stankovic J. 25. Hierlander S. (C) 8. Prass A. 10. Kiteishvili O. 15. Boving W. 17. Teixeira B.	1. Benitez W. (G) 3. Teze J. 5. Ramalho A. 18. Boscagli O. 30. van Aanholt P. 23. Veerman J. 6. Sangare I. 34. Saibari I. 11. Bakayoko J. 9. de Jong L. (C) 32. Vertessen Y.
Substitutes
40. Bignetti M. (G) 29. Fuseini M. 35. Geyrhofer N. 19. Horvat T. 13. Jantscher J. 2. Johnston M. 33. Locker J. 31. Maric L. (G) 28. Schnegg D. 14. Serrano J. 21. Stuckler S. 9. Wlodarczyk S.	26. Babadi I. 37. Comenencia L. 16. Drommel J. (G) 21. El-Ghazi A. 7. Lang N. 29. Mwene P. 14. Pepi R. 2. Sambo S. 20. Til G. 24. Waterman B. (G)
Coaches
Ilzer C.	Bosz P.

Preview

2nd leg. 1st leg result: 1-4.

Recent matches Sturm is playing mutable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

PSV is in a marvelous shape and in addition in the last match got series victories (in the last 5 games wins - 5).

Recently PSV have a series of home games.

PSV will have a mini benefit in this match.

Last 3 head-to-head matches Sturm won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 2-10.

Including matches at home between the teams Sturm won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 1-4.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Sturm Graz
Austrian Bundesliga
12.08.23	Sturm Graz - Austria Klagenfurt	0:0 ✺
UEFA Champions League
08.08.23	PSV Eindhoven - Sturm Graz	4:1 ✺
Austrian Bundesliga
05.08.23	Sturm Graz - LASK Linz	2:0 ✺
30.07.23	Austria Wien - Sturm Graz	0:3 ✺
Club Friendly
26.07.23	Strasbourg - Sturm Graz	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.7 TLWWL
- PSV Eindhoven
Dutch Eredivisie
12.08.23	PSV Eindhoven - Utrecht	2:0 ✺
UEFA Champions League
08.08.23	PSV Eindhoven - Sturm Graz	4:1 ✺
Dutch Super Cup
04.08.23	Feyenoord - PSV Eindhoven	0:1 ✺
Club Friendly
30.07.23	PSV Eindhoven - Nottingham Forest	1:0 ✺
26.07.23	PSV Eindhoven - FC Eindhoven	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.9 WWWWW

Latest Head to Head

UEFA Champions League
08.08.23	PSV Eindhoven - Sturm Graz	4:1
UEFA Europa League
25.11.21	PSV Eindhoven - Sturm Graz	2:0
30.09.21	Sturm Graz - PSV Eindhoven	1:4

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