Match Info

Europa League - League phase - Round 1

Date: 16 September 2026, Wednesday

Location: Merkur-Arena (Graz)

Referee: Lukjancukas M. (Ltu)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Sturm Graz		Rennes

	1	X	2
	4	4	1.8
	4.10	4.00	1.77
	4.2	3.9	1.82
	4.26	4.1	1.83
	4.06	4.04	1.81	Watch
	4.15	4	1.75
	4.16	4.16	1.82
	4	4	1.81
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.12 ↑ (3.39)	4.03 ↑ (3.86)	1.8 ↓ (2.01)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

The best margin for this event is 2.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Sturm Graz
23.2%

Draw
23.7%

Rennes
53%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

28.1%

24.6%

47.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

27.8%

24.3%

47.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Sturm Graz has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.9%)

Rennes has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Rennes's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Sturm Graz than the current prediction. (+4.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Rennes than the current prediction. (-5.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Rennes, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
10.7%	10.7%	78.7%

Sturm Graz - Rennes Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 10 Selected Experts predict this event. Sturm (votes: 2 - 20%). Rennes (votes: 7 - 70%). Tie (votes: 1 - 10%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -0.25 - Rennes (1.58) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.75 - over (1.83) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

1X2, 1st Half - Rennes (2.27) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 1.5, 1st Half - over (2.26) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (1.54) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH +0.5 - Sturm (1.98) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - under (2.43) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

EH +3 - Sturm (1.14) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Rennes will win (59 of 74 users predict this - 79.73%).
Confidence interval (95%): 70.57% – 88.89%.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 14 Selected Experts predict this event. Sturm (votes: 4 - 28.6%). Rennes (votes: 9 - 64.3%). Tie (votes: 1 - 7.1%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
53. Khudyakov D. (G) 5. Vallci A. (C) 2. Quarshie J. 30. Koller P. 27. Balbo L. 28. Heil J. 39. Weinhandl L. 78. Matoshi V. 43. Hodl J. 26. Beganovic B. 15. Mamageishvili G.	30. Samba B. (C) 14. Reynolds B. 4. Cresswell C. 24. Rouault A. 18. Nagida M. 45. Camara M. 10. Blas L. 17. Szymanski S. 28. Thomasson A. 11. Tamari M. 9. Lepaul E.
Substitutes
14. Diakite O. 4. Gorenc Stankovic J. 25. Grgic L. 40. Halwachs J. 22. Helac A. (G) 41. Lorenz E. (G) 23. Malic A. 38. Peinhart J. 21. Petrovic P. 8. Rozga F. 19. Seidl S.	48. Ait Boudlal A. 60. Belazzoug K. (G) 22. Dia B. 65. Do Marcolino H. 16. Lemaitre N. (G) 12. Mayenda E. 26. Merlin Q. 70. Nordin A. 5. Oliveira G. 21. Rongier V. 36. Seidu A. 90. Soumare I.
Coaches
Ingolitsch F.	Haise F.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Vallci A. ↓, Malic A. ↑,
51', Balbo L. 🟨,
62', Beganovic B. ↓, Diakite O. ↑,
62', Mamageishvili G. ↓, Rozga F. ↑,
63', Ingolitsch F. 🟨,
73', Tamari M. ↓, Nordin A. ↑,
73', Szymanski S. ↓, Rongier V. ↑,
80', Blas L. ↓, Mayenda E. ↑,
80', Reynolds B. ↓, Ait Boudlal A. ↑,
81', Balbo L. ↓, Seidl S. ↑,
81', Matoshi V. ↓, Gorenc Stankovic J. ↑,
86', Lepaul E. ↓, Dia B. ↑,
90+7', Gorenc Stankovic J. 🟨,

Preview

Now, both teams are in good form.

Sturm may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Rennes could have a small edge in this match.

There will not play in Sturm: Diakite O. (Off the roster) Geyrhofer N. (Off the roster) Grgic L. (Knee Injury) Kayombo A. (Off the roster) Wlodarczyk S. (Off the roster)

There are questionable in Sturm: Soglo E. (Muscle Injury)

There are questionable in Rennes: Cisse D. (Inactive) Nordin A. (Inactive) Oliveira G. (Inactive)

In recent times, the teams did not meet on the field.

Outrights of UEFA Europa League for now

Rennes: 2.89% Sturm Graz: 1.19%

Standings

League phase

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
17	Sturm Graz	1	0	1	0	0:0	0	1
18	Rennes	1	0	1	0	0:0	0	1

Last Results with these Odds

Rennes - the odds 2.01 are the expected chance of winning is 47.31%, but this team recently wins 63% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Sturm Graz
Austrian Bundesliga
13.09.26	Sturm Graz - LASK Linz	2:1 ✺
Austrian OFB Cup
05.09.26	ASK Voitsberg - Sturm Graz	1:4 ✺
Austrian Bundesliga
30.08.26	Rapid Wien - Sturm Graz	3:1 ✺
22.08.26	Sturm Graz - Austria Lustenau	1:1 ✺
15.08.26	Sturm Graz - Rheindorf Altach	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.1 WWLTW
- Stade Rennes
French Ligue 1
11.09.26	Rennes - Olympique Marseille	1:0 ✺
06.09.26	Angers - Rennes	1:2 ✺
30.08.26	Rennes - Le Mans	3:2 ✺
23.08.26	Rennes - Paris Saint-Germain	2:2 ✺
Club Friendly
15.08.26	Sunderland - Rennes	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.9 WWWTL

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