Match Info

Date: 31 July 2022, Sunday

Location: Estadio Juan Antonio Lavalleja (Minas)


	Sud América		Cerro

	1	X	2
	2.75	2.9	2.45
	2.8	3	2.4
	2.85	2.9	2.42
	3.06	2.8	2.58
	2.75	3	2.38
	2.88	3.05	2.43
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.85 ↑ (2.4)	2.94 ↓ (3)	2.44 ↓ (2.75)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 7.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Sud América
31.9%

Draw
30.9%

Cerro
37.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

37.4%

29.9%

32.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

40%

32%

30.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Sud América has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.5%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Sud América's form might have worsened.

Cerro has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Sud América than the current prediction. (+8.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Sud América, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Cerro than the current prediction. (-6.6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Cerro, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
12.5%	62.5%	25%

Sud América - Cerro Predictions

Users Predictions: 8 users predict this event. Sud América will win (votes: 1 - 12.5%). Cerro will win (votes: 2 - 25%). It will Tie (votes: 5 - 62.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 29% – 96%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Preview

The neighbours in a tournament table will play in a very interesting match (ranked 5 in the zone Promotion ~ Segunda Division (Promotion ~ Play Offs: Semi~finals) and 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Segunda Division (Promotion ~ Play Offs: Semi~finals)).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Sud América won 0.

One and the other team get a very uncertain game.

The possibility to win in this match is almost balanced for both teams.

Last 13 head-to-head matches Sud América won 0 matches, drawn 6 matches, lost 7 matches and goals 11-26.

Including matches at home between the teams Sud América won 0 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 4-14.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- IA Sud América
Uruguayan Segunda Division
24.07.22	Atenas de San Carlos - Sud América	1:2 ✺
25.06.22	La Luz - Sud América	0:0 ✺
22.06.22	Sud América - Progreso	1:1 ✺
18.06.22	Rampla Juniors - Sud América	0:0 ✺
11.06.22	Sud América - Racing Montevideo	0:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.2 WTTTL
- CA Cerro
Uruguayan Segunda Division
24.07.22	Cerro - Uruguay Montevideo	3:1 ✺
Uruguay Copa
13.07.22	Durazno - Cerro	3:2 ✺
Uruguayan Segunda Division
26.06.22	Atenas de San Carlos - Cerro	0:0 ✺
18.06.22	Progreso - Cerro	0:0 ✺
12.06.22	Cerro - Rampla Juniors	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11 WLTTW

Latest Head to Head

Uruguayan Segunda Division
06.05.22	Cerro - Sud América	3:2
Uruguayan Primera Division
12.09.17	Cerro - Sud América	2:1
25.06.17	Cerro - Sud América	2:1
25.02.17	Sud América - Cerro	0:6
03.12.16	Sud América - Cerro	0:2
29.05.16	Sud América - Cerro	2:2
28.11.15	Cerro - Sud América	2:0

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