Match Info

Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification - Round 1

Date: 25 September 2026, Friday 🏁 Finished

Location: Juba Stadium (Juba) 🌤️ ...

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Asia	—	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 1, TOD
Canada	09:00	beIN Connect, beIN Sports
Usa	09:00	beIN Connect, beIN Sports


	Sudan		Ethiopia

	1	X	2
	1.90	3.00	3.75
	1.86	3.05	4.00
	1.96	3.05	4.25
	1.82	3.25	4.73	Watch
	1.91	2.95	4.10
	1.94	3.04	4.41	Watch
	2.01	3.15	3.80
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.91 ↑ (1.78)	3.07 ↓ (3.4)	4.15 ↑ (4.1)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 6.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Sudan
48%

Draw
29.9%

Ethiopia
22.1%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

51.1%

26.7%

22.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Sudan has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.1%)

Ethiopia has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
60%	20%	20%

Sudan - Ethiopia Predictions

Users Predictions: 5 users predict this event. Sudan will win (votes: 3 - 60%). Ethiopia will win (votes: 1 - 20%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 20%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
16. Mustafa M. (G) Al-Hilal Omdurman 25. Barglan S. Den Bosch 4. Kuku A. Tarxien 6. Karshom M. Al-Hilal Omdurman 12. Khamis B. (C) Wefaq Ajdabiya 10. Abdallah A. Kazma SC 13. Taifour A. 5. Khidir W. Al-Hilal Omdurman 8. Omer A. Al-Hilal Omdurman 20. Eisa M. 14. Kante M.	1. Nuri A. (G) Ethiopian Insurance 4. Bekele B. Sidama Bunna 14. Yohannes S. Adama City 16. Baye Y. (C) 15. Bereket S. Hawassa 9. Tafesse M. Sidama Bunna 6. Panom G. Al Arabi (Saudi Arabia) 21. Tekeste H. Fasil Kenema 19. Gugsa C. Mechal SC 10. Yalew A. Sidama Bunna 8. Markneh C. Al Arabi (Kuwait)
Coaches
Kwesi Appiah J.	Sahle Y.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (1 - 0)
55', Tafesse M. 🟨,
61', Tafesse M. ↓, Gebre F. ↑,
61', Khamis B. ↓, Tabanja A. ↑,
69', Abdallah A. ↓, Mozamil Y. ↑,
69', Taifour A. ↓, Adil S. ↑,
76', Yalew A. ↓, Damtew C. ↑,
81', Yohannes S. 🟨,
83', Panom G. 🟨,
85', Bereket S. 🟨,
86', 1 - 0, Eisa M. ⚽,
90+2', 🟨,

Preview

Sudan is ranked FIFA: 117., and Ethiopia is ranked FIFA: 143..

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Sudan won 1.

Sudan carries the favorite tag into this contest.

In the last 7 head-to-head meetings, Sudan has recorded 2 wins, 3 draws, and 2 losses, with a goal aggregate of 10:9 (averaging 1.4:1.3 goals per game).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Sudan
Friendly
21.05.26	Qatar - Sudan	Canceled ✺
Africa Cup of Nations
03.01.26	Senegal - Sudan	3:1 ✺
31.12.25	Sudan - Burkina Faso	0:2 ✺
28.12.25	Equatorial Guinea - Sudan	0:1 ✺
24.12.25	Algeria - Sudan	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8 ?LLWL
- Ethiopia
Friendly
09.06.26	Ethiopia - Malawi	1:1 ✺
06.06.26	Ethiopia - Malawi	1:0 ✺
Africa Cup of Nations
31.03.26	Ethiopia - São Tomé and Príncipe	1:0 ✺
27.03.26	São Tomé and Príncipe - Ethiopia	0:3 ✺
FIFA World Cup
12.10.25	Burkina Faso - Ethiopia	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.7 TWWWL

Latest Head to Head

African Nations Championship
22.12.24	Ethiopia - Sudan	0:2
Friendly
26.09.22	Ethiopia - Sudan	2:2
23.09.22	Ethiopia - Sudan	1:1
African Nations Championship
13.08.17	Ethiopia - Sudan	1:1
CECAFA Championship
05.12.15	Ethiopia - Sudan	2:1 penalties
Africa Cup of Nations
14.10.12	Ethiopia - Sudan	2:0
08.09.12	Sudan - Ethiopia	3:1

Sudan - Ethiopia