Match Info

Premier League - Round 33

Date: 22 May 2026, Friday

Location: Tovuz şəhər stadionu (Tovuz)

Referee: Jabarov R. (Aze)

Where to Watch on TV:


Azerbaijan	CBC Sport


	Turan Tovuz		Sabah

	1	X	2
	3.2	3.5	1.92	Watch
	3.47	3.65	1.97
	3.32	3.57	1.98	Watch
	3.3	3.25	2
	3.45	3.38	1.94	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.35 ↑ (2.88)	3.47 ↑ (3.2)	1.96 ↓ (2.2)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Turan Tovuz
27.2%

Draw
26.3%

Sabah
46.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

31.2%

28%

40.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

30.3%

27.2%

42%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Turan Tovuz has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4%)

Sabah has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Sabah's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Turan Tovuz than the current prediction. (+3.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Sabah than the current prediction. (-4.5%)

Turan Tovuz - Sabah Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
41. Samok S. (G) 4. Aliyev S. (C) 14. Dadasov M. 11. Guseynov A. 32. Hurtado H. 2. Mampassi M. 10. Nacafov K. 17. Sadykhov R. 8. Tavares D. 99. Wadji I. 6. Yusifli F.	94. Mirzammadov R. (G) 9. Aliyev K. 53. Andrey 5. Dashdamirov R. 10. Isayev A. (C) 13. Lepinjica I. 19. Malouda A. 99. Mbina O. 17. Mutallimov T. 22. Ould Khaled Z. 3. Solvet S.
Substitutes
60. Bagirov V. 9. Ginnelly J. 13. Haciyev M. (G) 42. Ismayilov I. 75. Kichibayov A. 73. Madatov U. 29. Ozobic F. 97. Qasymov E. 20. Ramazanov I. 47. Rashidov P.	83. Ende S. 6. Khaybulaev A. 55. Mehbaliyev N. (G) 89. Mukhtarov C. 11. Parris K. 92. Pokatilov S. (G) 2. Seydiyev A. 80. Zedadka A.
Coaches
Berdyev K.	Dambrauskas V.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
13', Aliyev S. 🟨,
13', Lepinjica I. 🟨,
15', 0 - 1, Malouda A. ⚽,
19', Dashdamirov R. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
60', Tavares D. ↓, Ginnelly J. ↑,
64', 0 - 2, Aliyev K. ⚽,
65', Aliyev K. ↓, Ende S. ↑,
65', Ould Khaled Z. ↓, Khaybulaev A. ↑,
77', Dadasov M. ↓, Bagirov V. ↑,
79', Malouda A. ↓, Parris K. ↑,
79', Solvet S. ↓, Seydiyev A. ↑,
83', Sadykhov R. ↓, Madatov U. ↑,
83', Yusifli F. ↓, Ismayilov I. ↑,
85', Isayev A. ↓, Mukhtarov C. ↑,
86', 1 - 2, ⚽,

Preview

Sabah is Confirmed as championsnQualified for Champions League (Qualification )

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Turan won 1.

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

Sabah may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, Sabah has had a series of home games.

Sabah is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

In the last 15 head-to-head matches, Turan won 4 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 20:24. (average 1.3:1.6).

Including home matches between the teams, Turan won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 5 matches, and goals 10:14. (average 1.3:1.8).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
2	Sabah Baku	5	5	0	0	14:1	13	15
4	Turan Tovuz	6	3	2	1	6:4	2	11

Last Results with these Odds

Turan Tovuz - the odds 2.88 are the expected chance of winning is 31.16%, but this team recently wins 43% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Turan Tovuz
Azerbaijan Premier League
16.05.26	Shamakhi - Turan Tovuz	3:2 ✺
10.05.26	Turan Tovuz - Karvan	1:0 ✺
04.05.26	Qarabağ Agdam - Turan Tovuz	2:1 ✺
27.04.26	Turan Tovuz - Zira	1:1 ✺
Azerbaijan Cup
21.04.26	Zira - Turan Tovuz	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6 LWLTT
- Sabah Baku FK
Azerbaijan Premier League
17.05.26	Sabah - Neftchi Baku	1:2 ✺
Azerbaijan Cup
13.05.26	Sabah - Zira	2:1 ✺
Azerbaijan Premier League
08.05.26	Sabah - Kapaz	0:1 ✺
03.05.26	Shamakhi - Sabah	0:3 ✺
27.04.26	Sabah - Karvan	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.5 LWLWW

Latest Head to Head

Azerbaijan Premier League
13.12.25	Turan Tovuz - Sabah	1:3
20.09.25	Sabah - Turan Tovuz	2:0
12.04.25	Turan Tovuz - Sabah	2:1
09.02.25	Sabah - Turan Tovuz	2:1
Azerbaijan Cup
03.12.24	Turan Tovuz - Sabah	2:3 penalties
Azerbaijan Premier League
24.11.24	Turan Tovuz - Sabah	1:1
15.09.24	Sabah - Turan Tovuz	2:2

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