Match Info

Virsliga - Round 22

Date: 6 July 2026, Monday

Location: Jana Skredela stadions (Riga)

Where to Watch on TV:


Latvia	Sportacentrs TV, TV4, Virsliga Plus
Usa	SportsEngine Play


	Super Nova		Ogre United

	1	X	2
				Watch
	1.53	4.00	4.60
	1.58	3.95	4.95	Watch
	1.61	4.25	5.32
	1.56	4.74	4.56	Watch
	1.59	3.85	5.25
	1.61	4.29	4.71	Watch
	1.54	4.1	4.9
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.57 ↓ (1.84)	4.17 ↑ (3.38)	4.9 ↑ (3.79)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 4.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Super Nova
58.9%

Draw
22.2%

Ogre United
18.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

49.3%

26.8%

23.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

50.5%

26.2%

23.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Super Nova has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+9.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Super Nova's performance.

Ogre United has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Super Nova than the current prediction. (-8.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Super Nova that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ogre United than the current prediction. (+4.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
86.2%	3.4%	10.3%

Super Nova - Ogre United Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTTS - yes (1.63) (votes: 3 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

O/U 3 - over (1.84) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -0.75 - Super Nova (1.69) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Super Nova will win (24 of 27 users predict this - 88.89%).
Confidence interval (95%): 77.04% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Super Nova will win (5 of 5 users predict this - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 6 Selected Experts predict this event. Super Nova (votes: 6 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
90. Veisbuks D. (G) 21. Tihonovics M. 25. Oss M. (C) 5. Cirulis J. 3. Iida R. 6. Emsis E. 24. Sitjakovs R. 7. Glaudans A. 9. Bamba 19. Grikovs A. 10. Lizunovs V.	1. Parfjonovs N. (G) 37. Lormanis M. 13. Gulbis K. (C) 55. Kudelkins A. 77. Marusii M. 21. Ivulans M. 22. Estevez Fernandez L. 30. Doroshenko A. 19. Cudars K. 71. Marchuk A. 18. Evelons E.
Substitutes
29. Baghdasaryan A. 4. Berzins L. 20. Ndiaye I. 27. Pathe N. 31. Petrovics T. (G) 16. Romanovs K. 26. Sylla I. 18. Vasilevskis M.	14. Aditajs R. 20. Biscuhis K. (G) 5. Hayashi K. 10. Kalnins M. 3. Marusiy T. 17. Mashchenko V. 8. Mickevics T. 11. Pacepko M. 6. Vejkrigers D.
Coaches
Rafalskis M.	Mazurs V.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
45+1', Kudelkins A. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 2)
46', Ivulans M. ↓, Kalnins M. ↑,
48', 0 - 1, Lizunovs V. (Own goal),
59', Grikovs A. ↓, Sylla I. ↑,
71', Evelons E. ↓, Marusiy T. ↑,
71', Iida R. ↓, Pathe N. ↑,
72', Cirulis J. 🟨,
80', 0 - 2, Kudelkins A. ⚽, Doroshenko A. (A),
84', Tihonovics M. ↓, Romanovs K. ↑,
84', Estevez Fernandez L. ↓, Mashchenko V. ↑,
90+2', 1 - 2, Oss M. ⚽, Bamba (A),
90+3', Marchuk A. ↓, Vejkrigers D. ↑,

Preview

A mid-table team will face off against the outsider in this match (ranked 7 and 10 in the zone Relegation ~ Nakotnes liga).

Recent form of Super Nova has been disappointing (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Ogre United has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Ogre United may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Super Nova is a strong favorite.

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Super Nova won 3 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 9:3. (average 2.3:0.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Super Nova won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 6:1. (average 3:0.5).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
6	Super Nova	30	10	5	15	29:40	-11	35
10	Ogre United	31	4	6	21	30:76	-46	18

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Super Nova FC
Latvian Virsliga
01.07.26	Tukums 2000 - Super Nova	1:2 ✺
25.06.26	Super Nova - Jelgava	1:5 ✺
21.06.26	Super Nova - Auda Riga	0:2 ✺
16.06.26	BFC Daugavpils - Super Nova	0:0 ✺
12.06.26	Liepāja - Super Nova	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.1 WLLTL
- Ogre United
Latvian Virsliga
30.06.26	Liepāja - Ogre United	4:0 ✺
26.06.26	Ogre United - Tukums 2000	3:2 ✺
22.06.26	RFS - Ogre United	6:0 ✺
17.06.26	Jelgava - Ogre United	0:2 ✺
13.06.26	Ogre United - Riga	1:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.5 LWLWL

Latest Head to Head

Latvian Virsliga
16.05.26	Super Nova - Ogre United	3:1
03.04.26	Ogre United - Super Nova	1:2
Latvian 1 Liga
10.11.24	Super Nova - Ogre United	3:0
27.07.24	Ogre United - Super Nova	1:1

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