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Current Win Probability
Super Nova 35.9%
Draw 30.2%
Jelgava 33.9%
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
38.2%
28.4%
33.4%
Our Initial ML Estimation
39.1%
27.7%
32.6%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Super Nova has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.3%)
Jelgava has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.5%)
ML Model estimates a higher probability for Super Nova than the current prediction. (+3.2%)
ML Model estimates a lower probability for Jelgava than the current prediction. (-1.3%)
Who will win by Users?
1
X
2
10%
40%
50%
Super Nova - Jelgava Predictions
Users Predictions:
9 users predict this event. Super Nova will win (votes: 1 - 11.1%). Jelgava will win (votes: 4 - 44.4%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 44.4%). Confidence interval (95%) for Jelgava: 11.9% – 76.9%.
Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1
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Lineups
Starting Lineups
90. Veisbuks D. (G) 20. Ndiaye I. 25. Oss M. (C) 5. Cirulis J. 3. Iida R. 6. Emsis E. 24. Sitjakovs R. 21. Tihonovics M. 10. Lizunovs V. 9. Bamba 22. Skadmanis K.
1. Dvorak A. (G) 19. Petersons A. (C) 13. Novikovs J. 4. Kangars A. 3. Semesko M. 22. Pudil M. 9. Becers R. 29. Zaleiko G. 8. Melkis R. 18. Smaukstelis E. 20. Patika G.
Substitutes
29. Baghdasaryan A. 23. Barkovskis N. 7. Glaudans A. 19. Grikovs A. 27. Pathe N. 16. Romanovs K. 26. Sylla I. 18. Vasilevskis M. 13. Vilkovs S. (G)
28. Deklavs A. 23. Dreimanis A. 24. Hasek F. 11. Hasek M. 10. Holoubek D. 7. Janovskis A. 21. Kacanovs G. 16. Leitis T. (G) 5. Smirnovs I.
Coaches
Rafalskis M.
Basovs A.
Key Events of the Match
1st Half (1 - 3)
21', 0 - 1, Becers R. ⚽, Patika G. (A),
29', 0 - 2, Zaleiko G. (Penalty Awarded),
32', 0 - 3, Melkis R. ⚽,
36', Ndiaye I. ↓, Grikovs A. ↑,
41', 1 - 3, Lizunovs V. ⚽, Emsis E. (A),
45', Emsis E. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 2)
47', Pudil M. 🟨,
60', Skadmanis K. ↓, Barkovskis N. ↑,
68', Barkovskis N. 🟨,
68', Smaukstelis E. ↓, Holoubek D. ↑,
71', 1 - 4, Pudil M. ⚽, Holoubek D. (A),
71', Cirulis J. 🟨,
72', Sitjakovs R. ↓, Sylla I. ↑,
72', Iida R. ↓, Glaudans A. ↑,
72', Bamba ↓, Pathe N. ↑,
79', 1 - 5, Zaleiko G. ⚽, Melkis R. (A),
83', Melkis R. ↓, Hasek F. ↑,
83', Petersons A. ↓, Hasek M. ↑,
83', Patika G. ↓, Janovskis A. ↑,
90', Becers R. ↓, Deklavs A. ↑,
90+1', Hasek M. 🟨,
Preview
Enjoy a game between evenly matched mid-table sides (ranked 6 and 7).
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Super Nova won 0.
Super Nova has been struggling in recent matches (last 5 games: 0 wins).
Jelgava has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).
Recently, Jelgava has had a series of home games.
In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.
In the last 10 head-to-head matches, Super Nova won 0 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 8:13. (average 0.8:1.3).
Including home matches between the teams, Super Nova won 0 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 5:5. (average 1:1).
Standings
Pl
W
D
L
Diff
Pts
6
Super Nova
31
11
5
15
31:41
-10
38
7
Jelgava
32
8
8
16
34:53
-19
32
Last Results with these Odds
Jelgava - the odds 2.72 are the expected chance of winning is 33.39%, but this team recently wins 10% of matches with these odds.
Latvia
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Veisbuks D. (G) 
Ndiaye I. 
Iida R. 
Dvorak A. (G) 
Baghdasaryan A. 
Sylla I. 
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