Match Info

Virsliga - Round 27

Date: 22 August 2026, Saturday

Location: Jana Skredela stadions (Riga)

Where to Watch on TV:


Latvia	Sportacentrs TV, TV4, Virsliga Plus
Ukraine	Sport 1
Usa	SportsEngine Play
World	Sport 1 Baltic


	Super Nova		BFC Daugavpils

	1	X	2
				Watch
	3.90	3.40	1.75
	3.75	3.35	1.81	Watch
	4.11	3.68	1.85
	3.48	3.5	2.02	Watch
	4.00	3.60	1.81
	4.07	3.86	1.77	Watch
	3.85	3.40	1.80
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.88 ↑ (3.23)	3.54 ↑ (3.5)	1.83 ↓ (1.96)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 5.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Super Nova
23.7%

Draw
26%

BFC Daugavpils
50.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

28%

25.8%

46.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

26.5%

24.4%

48.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Super Nova has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.3%)

BFC Daugavpils has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Super Nova than the current prediction. (+2.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for BFC Daugavpils than the current prediction. (-1.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	0%	100%

Super Nova - BFC Daugavpils Predictions

Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. Daugavpils will win (votes: 4 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
90. Veisbuks D. (G) 5. Cirulis J. 25. Oss M. (C) 16. Romanovs K. 3. Iida R. 6. Emsis E. 24. Sitjakovs R. 15. Kirss R. 8. Patrikejevs I. 9. Bamba 10. Lizunovs V.	12. Beks J. (G) 37. Mihalcovs G. 5. Papa 20. Taty C. 19. Pinaskins E. 10. Ivanovs E. (C) 6. Barkovskis N. 11. Yakubu J. 4. Mukwelle W. 9. Traore A. 3. Ayebadiepreye D.
Substitutes
29. Baghdasaryan A. 17. Bombans G. 7. Glaudans A. 19. Grikovs A. 20. Ndiaye I. 27. Pathe N. 31. Petrovics T. (G) 22. Skadmanis K. 21. Tihonovics M.	77. Aizups R. 66. Bujanovs K. 97. Kivinda D. 27. Kopilovs M. 58. Razumejevs V. (G) 42. Saveljevs A. 85. Voitkevics R.
Coaches
Rafalskis M.	Kurbatov K.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Bamba ↓, Glaudans A. ↑,
54', Barkovskis N. 🟨,
56', Emsis E. 🟨,
62', Emsis E. ↓, Skadmanis K. ↑,
65', Traore A. ↓, Kivinda D. ↑,
70', Taty C. 🟨,
79', Kirss R. ↓, Grikovs A. ↑,
85', Cirulis J. 🟨,

Preview

This time we’ll see a clash between two mid-table teams (ranked 6 and 5).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Super Nova won 2.

Super Nova has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Daugavpils is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

Daugavpils may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Recently, Super Nova has had a series of home games.

Daugavpils is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

In the last 15 head-to-head matches, Super Nova won 3 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 12:19. (average 0.8:1.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Super Nova won 2 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 7:9. (average 1:1.3).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
5	BFC Daugavpils	31	10	9	12	35:35	0	39
6	Super Nova	30	10	5	15	29:40	-11	35

Last Results with these Odds

BFC Daugavpils - the odds 1.96 are the expected chance of winning is 46.21%, but this team recently wins 57% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Super Nova FC
Latvian Cup
16.08.26	Super Nova - RFS	0:1 ✺
Latvian Virsliga
09.08.26	Super Nova - Liepāja	1:2 ✺
20.07.26	Super Nova - Grobiņa	2:0 ✺
Latvian Cup
11.07.26	Tukums 2000 - Super Nova	1:2 ✺
Latvian Virsliga
06.07.26	Super Nova - Ogre United	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.4 LLWWL
- BFC Daugavpils
Latvian Cup
14.08.26	BFC Daugavpils - Ogre United	3:1 ✺
Latvian Virsliga
08.08.26	BFC Daugavpils - Tukums 2000	2:0 ✺
01.08.26	BFC Daugavpils - Jelgava	2:1 ✺
26.07.26	Auda Riga - BFC Daugavpils	1:0 ✺
19.07.26	Ogre United - BFC Daugavpils	0:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.2 WWWLW

Latest Head to Head

Latvian Virsliga
16.06.26	BFC Daugavpils - Super Nova	0:0
27.04.26	BFC Daugavpils - Super Nova	0:1
25.10.25	BFC Daugavpils - Super Nova	2:2
02.08.25	Super Nova - BFC Daugavpils	1:1
01.06.25	Super Nova - BFC Daugavpils	4:1
15.04.25	BFC Daugavpils - Super Nova	1:1
23.09.23	Super Nova - BFC Daugavpils	0:1

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