Match Info

K League 1 - Relegation Group - Round 38

Date: 30 November 2025, Sunday

Location: Suwon Sports Complex (Suwon)

Where to Watch on TV:


South-korea	Coupang Play, IB Sports
World	Onefootball


	Suwon		Gwangju

	1	X	2
	1.8	3.6	3.8	Watch
	1.88	3.35	3.8
	1.85	3.76	4.24
	2.14	3.32	3.30	Watch
	1.97	3.48	3.68	Watch
	1.8	3.6	4.2
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.91 ↓ (2.14)	3.52 ↑ (3.32)	3.84 ↑ (3.3)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 4.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Suwon
49%

Draw
26.6%

Gwangju
24.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

43.6%

28.1%

28.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

45%

29%

27.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Suwon has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.4%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Suwon's performance.

Gwangju has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Suwon than the current prediction. (-4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Gwangju than the current prediction. (+3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
42.9%	28.6%	28.6%

Suwon - Gwangju Predictions

Users Predictions: 7 users predict this event. Suwon will win (votes: 3 - 42.9%). Gwangju will win (votes: 2 - 28.6%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 28.6%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Suwon (votes: 2 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -1 - Suwon (2.36) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DNB, 1st Half - Suwon (1.45) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 4 Selected Experts predict this event. Suwon (votes: 4 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
23. Ahn Jun-Su (G) 72. Lee S. 6. Choi Kyu-Baek (C) 5. Lee Hyeon-yong 13. Hwang In-Taek 8. Roh Kyung-Ho 7. Lee Jae-Won 97. Luan Dias 79. Kim Gyeong-Min 9. Sabbag P. 44. Willyan	12. Roh Hee-Dong (G) 27. Kwon Sung-Yun 6. Ahn Young-Kyu 20. Jin Si-woo 2. Cho Sung-Gwon 10. Choi Kyoung-Rok 8. Lee K. (C) 88. Moon Min-seo 30. Ahn Hyeok-Ju 18. Park In-Hyeok 77. Oh Hoo-Sung
Substitutes
94. Ahn Hyun-Beom 15. Andrigo 30. Choi Chi-Ung 18. Han Chan-Hee 1. Hwang Jae-yun (G) 22. Jang Young-Woo 16. Jo Joon-Hyeon 4. Kim Tae-Han 11. Lee Joon-Suk	11. Fridjonsson H. 70. Ha Seung-Un 23. Kim Jin-Ho 41. Kim Tae-Joon (G) 39. Min Sang-Gi 17. Reis 40. Shin Chang-Moo 94. Sim Sang-Min 14. Yu Je-Ho
Coaches
Kim Eun-joong	Lee Jung-Hyo

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Ahn Hyeok-Ju ↓, Reis ↑,
50', 0 - 1, Reis ⚽,
54', Kim Gyeong-Min ↓, Andrigo ↑,
54', Roh Kyung-Ho ↓, Han Chan-Hee ↑,
61', Ahn Young-Kyu ↓, Min Sang-Gi ↑,
61', Kwon Sung-Yun ↓, Sim Sang-Min ↑,
66', Lee Jae-Won ↓, Choi Chi-Ung ↑,
69', Moon Min-seo ↓, Shin Chang-Moo ↑,
78', Park In-Hyeok 🟨,
80', Lee S. ↓, Kim Tae-Han ↑,
80', Hwang In-Taek ↓, Lee Joon-Suk ↑,
86', Choi Kyoung-Rok ↓, Yu Je-Ho ↑,
90+6', Roh Hee-Dong 🟨,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Suwon won 1.

Suwon is currently in poor form (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Gwangju has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Suwon could have a small edge in this match.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Suwon won 5 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 13 matches, and goals 15:31. (average 0.8:1.6).

Including home matches between the teams, Suwon won 3 matches, drew 1 match, lost 8 matches, and goals 10:21. (average 0.8:1.8).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Suwon FC
South Korean K-League 1
22.11.25	Anyang - Suwon	0:1 ✺
09.11.25	Ulsan HD - Suwon	1:0 ✺
02.11.25	Suwon - Daegu	1:1 ✺
25.10.25	Suwon - Jeju	1:2 ✺
18.10.25	Jeonbuk Hyundai Motors - Suwon	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4 WLTLL
- Gwangju FC
South Korean K-League 1
22.11.25	Gwangju - Ulsan HD	2:0 ✺
08.11.25	Daegu - Gwangju	1:0 ✺
02.11.25	Gwangju - Jeju	2:0 ✺
25.10.25	Gwangju - Anyang	1:0 ✺
18.10.25	Ulsan HD - Gwangju	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.9 WLWWL

Latest Head to Head

South Korean K-League 1
14.09.25	Suwon - Gwangju	2:4
18.07.25	Suwon - Gwangju	2:1
South Korean Cup
14.05.25	Suwon - Gwangju	1:2 penalties
South Korean K-League 1
15.02.25	Gwangju - Suwon	0:0
27.07.24	Gwangju - Suwon	1:0
25.06.24	Suwon - Gwangju	1:0
27.04.24	Gwangju - Suwon	1:2

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