Match Info

K League 1 - Round 31

Date: 11 October 2026, Sunday

Location: Gwangju Football Stadium (Gwangju)

Where to Watch on TV:


Australia	Stan Sport
Austria	Laola1
Finland	Veikkaus TV
Germany	Laola1
Hong-kong	M Plus Live
South-korea	Coupang Play
World	K League TV


	Gwangju		Ulsan HD

	1	X	2
	4.33	4.00	1.62	Watch
	4.75	4.33	1.60
	4.75	3.80	1.55
	5.16	4.44	1.63
	4.85	4.25	1.61	Watch
	5.10	4.35	1.60
	4.31	4.18	1.72	Watch
	4.60	4.10	1.61
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.73 ↑ (4.49)	4.18 ↑ (4.03)	1.62 ↓ (1.67)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 3.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Gwangju
19.8%

Draw
22.4%

Ulsan HD
57.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

20.8%

23.2%

56%

Our Initial ML Estimation

20%

22.3%

58.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Gwangju has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1%)

Ulsan HD has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Gwangju than the current prediction. (+0.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ulsan HD than the current prediction. (+0.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	16.7%	83.3%

Gwangju - Ulsan HD Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Ulsan (votes: 1 - 100%).

Users Predictions: Ulsan HD will win (5 of 6 users predict this - 83.33%).
Confidence interval (95%): 53.51% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
23. Kim Dong-Hwa (G) 22. Kwon Sung-Yun 39. Min Sang-Gi 4. van Grunsven T. 3. Lee Min-Ki 40. Shin Chang-Moo (C) 10. Choi Kyoung-Rok 14. Yu Je-Ho 9. Ha Seung-Un 50. Ba Loua A. 18. Iredale J.	21. Jo Hyeon-Woo (G) 96. Choi Seok-Hyun 15. Jung Seung-Hyun 19. Kim Young-Gwon (C) 26. Cho Hyun-Taek 6. Bojanic D. 55. Oude Kotte T. 33. Jang Si-Young 10. Lee Dong-Gyeong 11. Erick Farias 99. Yago Cariello
Substitutes
6. Ahn Young-Kyu 11. Fridjonsson H. 17. Joao Pedro 8. Ju Se-Jong 70. Kim Woo-jin 1. Kyeong-Min K. 88. Moon Min-seo 33. Park Won-Jae 37. Ri Yong-jik	72. Baek In-Woo 1. Choi Ju-ho (G) 17. Kang Sang-Woo 24. Lee Gyu-Seong 8. Lee H. 28. Lee Jae-Ik 14. Lee Jin-Hyun 66. Trojak M. 2. Yoon Jong-Gyu
Coaches
Lee J.	Kim Hyun-seok

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 2)
30', 0 - 1, Yago Cariello ⚽, Bojanic D. (A),
36', 1 - 1, Ba Loua A. ⚽, Ha Seung-Un (A),
39', 2 - 1, Iredale J. ⚽, Ba Loua A. (A),
43', 2 - 2, Kim Young-Gwon ⚽, Lee Dong-Gyeong (A),
2nd Half (2 - 1)
46', Choi Seok-Hyun ↓, Trojak M. ↑,
64', Ha Seung-Un ↓, Moon Min-seo ↑,
66', 3 - 2, Shin Chang-Moo ⚽, Ba Loua A. (A),
76', Choi Kyoung-Rok ↓, Ju Se-Jong ↑,
76', Min Sang-Gi ↓, Park Won-Jae ↑,
76', Kwon Sung-Yun ↓, Ahn Young-Kyu ↑,
78', 4 - 2, Ba Loua A. ⚽, Lee Min-Ki (A),
79', Bojanic D. ↓, Lee Gyu-Seong ↑,
83', Erick Farias ↓, Lee Jin-Hyun ↑,
83', Jang Si-Young ↓, Yoon Jong-Gyu ↑,
88', Lee Dong-Gyeong ↓, Lee H. ↑,
89', van Grunsven T. ↓, Ri Yong-jik ↑,
90+4', Kim Dong-Hwa 🟨,
90+7', 4 - 3, Yago Cariello (Penalty Awarded),

Preview

A high-stakes clash as a relegation-threatened team welcomes an elite contender (ranked 12th in the K League 1 (Relegation Group: ) and 2nd in the Promotion - K League 1 (Championship Group: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Gwangju won 2.

Gwangju is going through a lean spell lately (last 5 matches: 0 wins).

Ulsan shows confident form ahead of this contest (last 5 matches: 3 wins).

Ulsan carries the favorite tag into this contest.

In the last 20 head-to-head meetings, Gwangju has recorded 6 wins, 3 draws, and 11 losses, with a goal aggregate of 15:27 (averaging 0.8:1.4 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Gwangju against this opponent, the record stands at 4 wins, 2 draws, and 4 losses, with 8:7 goals (averaging 0.8:0.7 per game).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
2	Ulsan HD	31	14	5	12	48:44	4	47
12	Gwangju FC ✔	31	2	12	17	25:66	-41	18

Last Results with these Odds

Ulsan HD - the odds 1.67 are the expected chance of winning is 55.98%, but this team recently wins 44% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Gwangju FC
South Korean K-League 1
20.09.26	Jeonbuk Hyundai Motors - Gwangju	2:2 ✺
13.09.26	Gwangju - Anyang	1:1 ✺
09.09.26	Gwangju - Jeju	0:1 ✺
06.09.26	Gimcheon Sangmu - Gwangju	2:2 ✺
30.08.26	Gwangju - FC Seoul	2:5 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.7 TTLTL
- Ulsan HD
South Korean K-League 1
19.09.26	Anyang - Ulsan HD	2:1 ✺
12.09.26	Ulsan HD - Incheon United	2:1 ✺
08.09.26	Ulsan HD - FC Seoul	1:0 ✺
05.09.26	Jeju - Ulsan HD	0:0 ✺
29.08.26	Ulsan HD - Gimcheon Sangmu	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.2 LWWTW

Latest Head to Head

South Korean K-League 1
05.07.26	Gwangju - Ulsan HD	1:1
19.04.26	Ulsan HD - Gwangju	5:1
22.11.25	Gwangju - Ulsan HD	2:0
18.10.25	Ulsan HD - Gwangju	2:0
South Korean Cup
02.07.25	Gwangju - Ulsan HD	1:0
South Korean K-League 1
28.05.25	Gwangju - Ulsan HD	1:1
02.05.25	Ulsan HD - Gwangju	3:0

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