Match Info

K League 1 - Round 8

Date: 19 April 2026, Sunday

Location: Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium (Ulsan)

Where to Watch on TV:


Austria	Laola1
Germany	Laola1
South-korea	Coupang Play, JTBC Golf&Sports
Switzerland	LAOLA1
World	K League TV


	Ulsan HD		Gwangju

	1	X	2
	1.55	3.7	5.5	Watch
	1.52	3.9	5.7
	1.59	4.09	6.42
	1.57	4.03	5.64	Watch
	1.53	3.75	5.75
	1.55	3.94	5.92	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.55 (1.55)	3.9 ↓ (4.07)	5.82 ↑ (5.61)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 2.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ulsan HD
60.1%

Draw
23.9%

Gwangju
16%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

60.3%

23%

16.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

61.8%

22.4%

16.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ulsan HD has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.2%)

Gwangju has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ulsan HD than the current prediction. (+1.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Gwangju than the current prediction. (+0.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
87.5%	0%	12.5%

Ulsan HD - Gwangju Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -1 - Ulsan (2.01) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Ulsan HD will win (6 of 7 users predict this - 85.71%).
Confidence interval (95%): 59.78% – 100%.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Ulsan (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
21. Jo Hyeon-Woo (G) 77. Sim Sang-Min 15. Jung Seung-Hyun (C) 28. Lee Jae-Ik 26. Cho Hyun-Taek 33. Jang Si-Young 8. Lee H. 24. Lee Gyu-Seong 6. Bojanic D. 17. Kang Sang-Woo 9. Marcao	21. Roh Hee-Dong (G) 27. Kim Jin-Ho 24. Yong-Wook K. 6. Ahn Young-Kyu (C) 3. Lee Min-Ki 40. Shin Chang-Moo 8. Ju Se-Jong 10. Choi Kyoung-Rok 9. Ha Seung-Un 19. Ahn Hyeok-Ju 16. Joung Ji-hun
Substitutes
96. Choi Seok-Hyun 18. Heo Yool 20. Jeong Jae-sang 10. Lee Dong-Gyeong 22. Lee Min-Hyuk 16. Park Woo-jin 27. Pedrinho 13. Ryu Seong-Min (G) 4. Seo Myung-Guan	26. Gong B. 99. Hong Yong-Jun 42. Kang Hui-Su 23. Kim Dong-Hwa (G) 25. Kim Yun-ho 22. Kwon Sung-Yun 39. Min Sang-Gi 88. Moon Min-seo 28. Seong Hyun P.
Coaches
Kim Hyun-seok	Lee J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 1)
19', 1 - 0, Jung Seung-Hyun ⚽, Marcao (A),
20', 1 - 1, Shin Chang-Moo ⚽, Ahn Hyeok-Ju (A),
27', 2 - 1, Marcao ⚽, Lee Gyu-Seong (A),
37', Shin Chang-Moo ↓, Moon Min-seo ↑,
39', Ju Se-Jong 🟨,
2nd Half (3 - 0)
57', 3 - 1, Marcao (Penalty Awarded),
60', Yong-Wook K. 🟨,
63', Kim Jin-Ho ↓, Kwon Sung-Yun ↑,
63', Choi Kyoung-Rok ↓, Hong Yong-Jun ↑,
63', Bojanic D. ↓, Lee Dong-Gyeong ↑,
64', Lee H. ↓, Lee Min-Hyuk ↑,
65', Sim Sang-Min 🟨,
69', Jang Si-Young ↓, Pedrinho ↑,
71', Ha Seung-Un ↓, Kim Yun-ho ↑,
71', Joung Ji-hun ↓, Seong Hyun P. ↑,
79', Sim Sang-Min ↓, Choi Seok-Hyun ↑,
79', Marcao ↓, Heo Yool ↑,
82', Lee Gyu-Seong 🟨,
84', Seong Hyun P. 🟨,
90', 4 - 1, Heo Yool ⚽, Lee Min-Hyuk (A),
90+4', 5 - 1, Lee Dong-Gyeong (Penalty Awarded),

Preview

One of the top teams will play against one of the outsiders (ranked 2 in the zone Promotion ~ K League 1 (Championship Group: ) and 12 in the zone K League 1 (Relegation Group: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Ulsan won 2.

Recent performances by Ulsan have been up and down (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Gwangju's performance has dropped in recent matches (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

Ulsan may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Ulsan is a strong favorite.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Ulsan won 10 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 23:15. (average 1.2:0.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Ulsan won 6 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 16:7. (average 1.6:0.7).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
2	Ulsan HD	31	14	5	12	48:44	4	47
12	Gwangju FC ✔	31	2	12	17	25:66	-41	18

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Ulsan HD
South Korean K-League 1
15.04.26	Ulsan HD - FC Seoul	1:4 ✺
11.04.26	Incheon United - Ulsan HD	1:2 ✺
04.04.26	Jeonbuk Hyundai Motors - Ulsan HD	2:0 ✺
22.03.26	Ulsan HD - Gimcheon Sangmu	0:0 ✺
18.03.26	Jeju - Ulsan HD	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.1 LWLTW
- Gwangju FC
South Korean K-League 1
11.04.26	Gwangju - Bucheon	0:1 ✺
04.04.26	Gangwon - Gwangju	3:0 ✺
22.03.26	FC Seoul - Gwangju	5:0 ✺
17.03.26	Gimcheon Sangmu - Gwangju	1:1 ✺
14.03.26	Gwangju - Jeonbuk Hyundai Motors	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.1 LLLTT

Latest Head to Head

South Korean K-League 1
22.11.25	Gwangju - Ulsan HD	2:0
18.10.25	Ulsan HD - Gwangju	2:0
South Korean Cup
02.07.25	Gwangju - Ulsan HD	1:0
South Korean K-League 1
28.05.25	Gwangju - Ulsan HD	1:1
02.05.25	Ulsan HD - Gwangju	3:0
South Korean Cup
28.08.24	Ulsan HD - Gwangju	2:2
South Korean K-League 1
25.08.24	Gwangju - Ulsan HD	0:1

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