Match Info

ENGLAND: FA CUP - 1/32-FINALS

Date: 6 January 2024, Saturday

Location: Swansea.com Stadium (Swansea)

Referee: Nield T. (Eng)

Where to Watch on TV:


Bulgaria	Nova Sport
Croatia	SportKlub
Denmark	Discovery+, Viaplay
Finland	Viaplay
Malaysia	Astro
Norway	Viaplay
Sweden	Viaplay, V Sport Xtra


	Swansea City		Morecambe

	1	X	2
	1.36	5	8	Watch
	1.36	5.25	8
	1.38	5	9	Watch
	1.39	4.91	7.96
	1.39	4.89	7.96
	1.29	4.8	7.5
	1.37	5.2	7.8	Watch
	1.37	5.2	7.4
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.36 ↓ (1.38)	5.03 ↑ (5.01)	7.95 ↑ (7.11)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 3.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Swansea City
69.3%

Draw
18.8%

Morecambe
11.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

68%

18.7%

13.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

64.1%

17.6%

14%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Swansea City has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.3%)

Morecambe has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Swansea City than the current prediction. (-5.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Swansea City that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Morecambe than the current prediction. (+2.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
92.9%	0%	7.1%

Swansea City - Morecambe Predictions

Users Predictions: Swansea City will win (13 of 14 users predict this - 92.86%).
Confidence interval (95%): 79.37% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Fisher A. (G) 47. Abdulai A. 26. Naughton K. 23. Wood N. 3. Pedersen K. 7. Allen J. (C) 31. Cooper O. 18. Patino C. 41. Parker S. 9. Yates J. 17. Bolasie Y.	21. Smith A. (G) 3. Tutonda D. 4. Bedeau J. 5. Rawson F. (C) 12. Senior J. 6. Songo'o Y. 15. Stokes Ch. 14. Slew J. 18. Taylor J. 28. Threlkeld O. 20. Brown C.
Substitutes
20. Cullen L. 8. Grimes M. 33. Humphreys B. 19. Kukharevych M. 50. Lissah F. 12. Paterson J. 22. Rushworth C. (G) 21. Tjoe a On N. 99. Wilson K.	7. Bloxham T. 19. Edwards G. 98. Fox S. 11. Mayor A. 23. Melbourne M. 9. Mellon M. 26. Pedley G. (G) 17. Smith C.

Preview

Replayed if draw.

One and the other team get a very uncertain game.

Swansea could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match Swansea is indisputable favorite.

Recently, the teams did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Swansea City
English League Championship
01.01.24	Swansea City - West Bromwich Albion	1:0 ✺
29.12.23	Coventry City - Swansea City	2:2 ✺
26.12.23	Southampton - Swansea City	5:0 ✺
22.12.23	Swansea City - Preston North End	2:1 ✺
16.12.23	Swansea City - Middlesbrough	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.7 WTLWL
- Morecambe
English League Two
01.01.24	Morecambe - Harrogate Town	2:2 ✺
29.12.23	Notts County - Morecambe	5:0 ✺
26.12.23	Bradford City - Morecambe	2:2 ✺
23.12.23	Morecambe - Milton Keynes Dons	1:3 ✺
16.12.23	Doncaster Rovers - Morecambe	0:5 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.9 TLTLW

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