Match Info

Championship - Round 37

Date: 10 March 2026, Tuesday

Location: Fratton Park (Portsmouth)

Referee: Ward G. (Eng)

Where to Watch on TV:


Denmark	Viaplay
Finland	Viaplay
Iceland	Viaplay
Netherlands	Viaplay
Norway	Viaplay
Sweden	Viaplay
United-kingdom	Sky Sports+


	Portsmouth		Swansea City

	1	X	2
	2.25	3.3	3.1	Watch
	2.55	3.3	2.75
	2.38	3.27	3.07
	2.42	3.29	3.17
	2.36	3.26	3.1	Watch
	2.3	3.1	3
	2.37	3.39	3.19	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.38 ↓ (2.51)	3.27 ↓ (3.46)	3.05 ↑ (2.7)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Portsmouth
39.9%

Draw
29%

Swansea City
31.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

37.7%

27.3%

35%

Our Initial ML Estimation

37.8%

27.4%

34.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Portsmouth has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.2%)

Swansea City has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Portsmouth than the current prediction. (-2.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Swansea City than the current prediction. (+3.8%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
66.7%	18.7%	14.6%

Portsmouth - Swansea City Predictions

Users Predictions: 47 users predict this event. Portsmouth will win (votes: 32 - 68.1%). Swansea will win (votes: 6 - 12.8%). It will Tie (votes: 9 - 19.1%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Portsmouth: 54.8% – 81.4%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 19 Selected Experts predict this event. Portsmouth (votes: 13 - 68.4%). Swansea (votes: 2 - 10.5%). Tie (votes: 4 - 21.1%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTTS - yes (votes: 2 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 2 - 66.7%) .

DC - Portsmouth (1.33) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH +0.25 - Portsmouth (1.47) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 21 Selected Experts predict this event. Portsmouth (votes: 15 - 71.4%). Swansea (votes: 2 - 9.5%). Tie (votes: 4 - 19%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Schmid N. (G) 24. Devlin T. 55. Dia M. 3. Ogilvie C. 22. Swanson Z. 7. Pack M. (C) 38. Adams E. 47. Caballero G. 40. Brown J. 27. Alli M. 9. Bishop C.	22. Vigouroux L. (G) 2. Key J. 5. Cabango B. (C) 15. Burgess C. 14. Tymon J. 17. Franco G. 4. Fulton J. 30. Galbraith E. 35. Ronald 9. Vipotnik Z. 10. Eom J.
Substitutes
29. Blair H. 17. Bowat I. 26. Bursik J. (G) 36. Chaplin C. 16. Le Roux L. 14. Matthews H. 10. Segecic A. 8. Swift J. 2. Williams J.	31. Cooper O. 20. Cullen L. 1. Fisher A. (G) 18. Gustavo Nunes 6. Stamenic M. 21. Walta L. 25. Ward J. 7. Widell M. 8. Yalcouye M.
Coaches
Mousinho J.	Emanuel Soares Matos V.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 2)
26', 0 - 1, Galbraith E. ⚽, Tymon J. (A),
33', Vipotnik Z. 🟨,
39', 0 - 2, Key J. ⚽, Ronald (A),
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Alli M. ↓, Chaplin C. ↑,
59', Vipotnik Z. ↓, Cullen L. ↑,
59', Galbraith E. ↓, Widell M. ↑,
64', 1 - 2, Brown J. ⚽, Swanson Z. (A),
69', Dia M. 🟨,
70', Key J. ↓, Ward J. ↑,
70', Franco G. ↓, Stamenic M. ↑,
71', Ward J. 🟨,
76', Brown J. ↓, Segecic A. ↑,
83', Eom J. ↓, Yalcouye M. ↑,
84', Dia M. ↓, Swift J. ↑,
88', Adams E. ↓, Blair H. ↑,

Preview

The game between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 19 and 14).

Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.

Recently, Portsmouth has had a series of away games.

Portsmouth could have a small edge in this match.

There will not play in Portsmouth: Alese A. (Muscle Injury) Anderson K. (Hamstring Injury) Bianchini F. (Knee Injury) Dozzell A. (Ankle Injury) Knight J. (Back Injury) Kosznovszky M. (Knee Injury) Murphy J. (Foot Injury) Swift J. (Inactive) Umeh F. (Hamstring Injury) Waddingham T. (Thigh Injury)

There will not play in Swansea: Idah A. (Groin Injury) Inoussa Z. (Injury)

There are questionable in Portsmouth: Kirk M. (Inactive)

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Portsmouth won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 6:3. (average 2:1).

Including home match between the teams, Portsmouth won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 4:0.

Outrights of English League Championship for now

Swansea: 7.34% Portsmouth: 0.98%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Swansea	9	6	2	1	15:7	8	20
19	Portsmouth	7	2	2	3	9:10	-1	8

Last Results with these Odds

Swansea City - the odds 2.7 are the expected chance of winning is 35.01%, but this team recently wins 29% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Portsmouth FC
English League Championship
07.03.26	Blackburn Rovers - Portsmouth	1:1 ✺
28.02.26	Portsmouth - Hull City	0:1 ✺
24.02.26	Wrexham - Portsmouth	2:1 ✺
21.02.26	Millwall - Portsmouth	1:3 ✺
17.02.26	Charlton Athletic - Portsmouth	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 18.2 TLLWW
- Swansea City
English League Championship
07.03.26	Swansea City - Stoke City	2:0 ✺
28.02.26	Ipswich Town - Swansea City	3:0 ✺
24.02.26	Swansea City - Preston North End	1:1 ✺
21.02.26	Swansea City - Bristol City	1:0 ✺
14.02.26	Derby County - Swansea City	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.3 WLTWL

Latest Head to Head

English League Championship
09.12.25	Swansea City - Portsmouth	1:0
01.01.25	Portsmouth - Swansea City	4:0
30.11.24	Swansea City - Portsmouth	2:2

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