Match Info

League Two - Round 4

Date: 19 August 2025, Tuesday

Location: County Ground (Swindon)

Referee: Humphries A. (Eng)

Where to Watch on TV:


United-kingdom	Sky Sports+


	Swindon Town		Barnet

	1	X	2
	2.25	3.5	2.9	Watch
	2.1	3.5	3.25
	2.22	3.55	2.92	Watch
	2.34	3.6	2.95
	2.62	3.14	2.67	Watch
	2	3.5	3.4
	2.24	3.54	3.02	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.25 ↑ (2.22)	3.48 ↓ (3.49)	3.02 ↓ (3.08)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 4.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Swindon Town
41.7%

Draw
27.1%

Barnet
31.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

42.4%

27%

30.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

42.6%

26.9%

30.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Swindon Town has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.7%)

Barnet has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Swindon Town than the current prediction. (+0.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Barnet than the current prediction. (-0.7%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
90%	3.3%	6.7%

Swindon Town - Barnet Predictions

Users Predictions: 29 users predict this event. Swindon will win (votes: 26 - 89.7%). Barnet will win (votes: 2 - 6.9%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 3.4%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Swindon: 78.6% – 100%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH 0 - Barnet (2.04) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Swindon Town will win (10 of 12 users predict this - 83.33%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 13 Selected Experts predict this event. Swindon (votes: 10 - 76.9%). Barnet (votes: 3 - 23.1%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Ripley C. (G) 33. McGregor J. 5. Wright W. (C) 16. Wilson-Brown T. 19. Snowdon J. 7. Nichols T. 44. Oldaker D. 26. Munroe F. 23. Drinan A. 10. Smith H. 20. Ehibhatiomhan P.	29. Slicker C. (G) 5. Senior A. 22. Kensdale O. 4. Collinge D. 15. Glover R. 18. Hartigan A. (C) 19. Shelton M. 3. Galvin R. 10. Stead C. 11. Kanu I. 12. Hawkins O.
Substitutes
31. Bodin B. 14. Butterworth D. 9. Glatzel P. 18. Kilkenny G. 34. Kirkman B. 3. Mabete F. 12. Ward L. (G)	35. Adeniran D. 17. Brunt Z. 7. High S. . Ndlovu L. 6. Osadebe E. 23. Smith K. 1. Wright J. (G)
Coaches
Holloway I.	Brennan D.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
38', Smith H. 🟨,
43', Wright W. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 2)
59', Smith H. ↓, Kilkenny G. ↑,
59', Ehibhatiomhan P. ↓, Glatzel P. ↑,
59', Nichols T. ↓, Butterworth D. ↑,
66', Snowdon J. ↓, Bodin B. ↑,
75', Galvin R. ↓, High S. ↑,
75', Hartigan A. ↓, Osadebe E. ↑,
82', Hawkins O. ↓, Ndlovu L. ↑,
86', 0 - 1, Osadebe E. ⚽,
90+1', Shelton M. 🟨,
90+5', Stead C. ↓, Adeniran D. ↑,
90+7', Kensdale O. 🟨,
90+10', 0 - 2, Adeniran D. ⚽,
90+11', 🟨,

Preview

Recent performances by Swindon have been up and down (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Barnet has suffered multiple defeats recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

Barnet may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Recently, Swindon has had a series of away games.

Recently, Barnet has had a series of home games.

Swindon is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Swindon won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 3:5. (average 0.6:1).

Including home matches between the teams, Swindon won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 1:4. (average 0.5:2).

Last Results with these Odds

Swindon Town - the odds 2.22 are the expected chance of winning is 42.38%, but this team recently wins 33% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Swindon Town
English League Two
16.08.25	Oldham Athletic - Swindon Town	1:2 ✺
English League Cup
12.08.25	Cardiff City - Swindon Town	2:1 ✺
English League Two
09.08.25	Swindon Town - Cambridge United	3:2 ✺
02.08.25	Walsall - Swindon Town	2:1 ✺
Club Friendly
26.07.25	Eastleigh - Swindon Town	2:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.7 WLWLW
- Barnet
English League Two
16.08.25	Barnet - Walsall	1:2 ✺
09.08.25	Bromley - Barnet	2:0 ✺
02.08.25	Barnet - Fleetwood Town	0:2 ✺
English League Cup
29.07.25	Barnet - Newport County	2:3 penalties ✺
Club Friendly
22.07.25	Barnet - Wycombe Wanderers	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.4 LLLLT

Latest Head to Head

English League Two
01.01.18	Barnet - Swindon Town	1:2
02.09.17	Swindon Town - Barnet	1:4
03.04.12	Barnet - Swindon Town	N/A

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