Match Info

Serie A Betano - Round 25

Date: 30 August 2026, Sunday

Location: Estádio José Maria de Campos Maia (Mirassol)

Referee: Vitor Gobi J. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Austria	Laola1
Ecuador	El Canal del Futbol app, El Canal del Futbol
Germany	Laola1, Sportdigital FUSSBALL
Mexico	Azteca Deportes
Portugal	Canal 11
Russia	MATCH! Futbol 3
Serbia	Arena Premium 2
United-kingdom	Premier Sports 2, Premier Sports Player
Usa	SportsEngine Play


	Mirassol		Palmeiras

	1	X	2
	3.5	3.4	2.05	Watch
	3.25	3.30	2.20
	3.95	3.3	1.92	Watch
	3.78	3.36	2.17
	3.43	3.45	2.15	Watch
	3.65	3.25	2.12
	3.73	3.34	2.11	Watch
	3.55	3.3	2.07
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.61 ↓ (3.97)	3.34 ↑ (3.3)	2.1 ↑ (1.9)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 2.3%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Mirassol
26.3%

Draw
28.4%

Palmeiras
45.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

23.3%

28%

48.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

25.3%

25.8%

44.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Mirassol has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3%)

Palmeiras has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Mirassol than the current prediction. (-1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Palmeiras than the current prediction. (-0.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
8.3%	16.7%	75%

Mirassol - Palmeiras Predictions

Users Predictions: 12 users predict this event. Mirassol will win (votes: 1 - 8.3%). Palmeiras will win (votes: 9 - 75%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 16.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Palmeiras: 50.5% – 99.5%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Palmeiras (votes: 1 - 50%). Tie (votes: 1 - 50%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.25 - over (1.80) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH 0, 1st Half - Palmeiras (1.59) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 1, 1st Half - over (1.95) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Palmeiras (votes: 2 - 66.7%). Tie (votes: 1 - 33.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

#ad

Lineups

Starting Lineups
22. Walter (G) 32. Igor Formiga 34. Joao Victor (C) 3. Willian Machado 6. Reinaldo 25. Neto Moura 27. Denilson 19. Gustavo Silva 30. Bruno Santos 77. Alesson 33. Eduardo	1. Carlos Miguel (G) 4. Giay A. 15. Gomez G. (C) 26. Murilo 18. Mauricio 17. Marlon Freitas 8. Andreas Pereira 56. Arthur Gabriel 42. Lopez J. 7. Felipe Anderson 9. Vitor Roque
Substitutes
23. Alex Muralha (G) 9. Andre Luis 96. Carlos Eduardo 55. Cazonatti G. 10. Chico Kim 18. Elias 17. Fernandinho 44. Gabriel Knesowitsch 5. Japa 2. Lucas Oliveira 7. Shaylon 12. Victor Luis	66. Andre Lucas 29. Bilong M. C. 3. Bruno Fuchs 45. Erick Bele 39. Heittor Vinicius 12. Khellven 48. Larson 30. Lucas Evangelista 50. Luis Pacheco 14. Marcelo Lomba (G) 32. Martinez E. 37. Riquelme Fillipi
Coaches
Rafael Guanaes	Abel Ferreira

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (1 - 1)
50', 1 - 0, Eduardo ⚽, Igor Formiga (A),
70', Neto Moura ↓, Japa ↑,
70', Eduardo ↓, Cazonatti G. ↑,
70', Felipe Anderson ↓, Khellven ↑,
70', Vitor Roque ↓, Lucas Evangelista ↑,
75', 1 - 1, Mauricio ⚽, Gomez G. (A),
76', Gustavo Silva ↓, Carlos Eduardo ↑,
79', Alesson ↓, Fernandinho ↑,
79', Bruno Santos ↓, Andre Luis ↑,
81', (Penalty overturned),
85', Denilson 🟨,
87', Mauricio ↓, Heittor Vinicius ↑,
90+6', Arthur Gabriel 🟨,
90+8', Arthur Gabriel 🟨,

Preview

An outsider and one of the leaders will play in this match (ranked 18 in the zone Relegation ~ Serie B and 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Group Stage: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Mirassol won 1.

Mirassol has been struggling lately (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Palmeiras is currently in excellent shape (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Palmeiras may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Palmeiras will hold a modest advantage in this match.

There will not play in Mirassol: Edson Carioca (Injury) Jose Aldo (Muscle Injury) Negueba (Knee Injury) Wallisson (Red Card)

There will not play in Palmeiras: Allan Elias (Transfer negotiations) Jefte (Knee Injury) Sosa R. (Muscle Injury)

There are questionable in Palmeiras: Paulinho (Muscle Injury)

In the last 13 head-to-head matches, Mirassol won 3 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 16:23. (average 1.2:1.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Mirassol won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 3 matches, and goals 11:11. (average 1.8:1.8).

Outrights of Brazilian Serie A for now

Palmeiras: 36.7%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
2	Palmeiras	29	17	9	3	48:21	27	60
15	Mirassol	29	8	9	12	34:43	-9	33

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Mirassol
Brazilian Serie A
23.08.26	Santos - Mirassol	1:1 ✺
Copa Libertadores
20.08.26	LDU Quito - Mirassol	1:0 penalties ✺
Brazilian Serie A
16.08.26	Mirassol - Flamengo	1:5 ✺
Copa Libertadores
13.08.26	Mirassol - LDU Quito	1:1 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
09.08.26	Cruzeiro - Mirassol	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.6 TLLTL
- Palmeiras
Copa do Brasil
26.08.26	Palmeiras - Santos	3:0 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
23.08.26	Palmeiras - Vasco da Gama	4:1 ✺
Copa Libertadores
19.08.26	Cerro Porteño - Palmeiras	0:1 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
15.08.26	Fluminense - Palmeiras	3:2 ✺
Copa Libertadores
12.08.26	Palmeiras - Cerro Porteño	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.9 WWWLT

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie A
15.03.26	Palmeiras - Mirassol	1:0
Brazilian Campeonato Paulista
17.01.26	Palmeiras - Mirassol	1:0
Brazilian Serie A
09.11.25	Mirassol - Palmeiras	2:1
16.07.25	Palmeiras - Mirassol	1:1
Brazilian Campeonato Paulista
23.02.25	Mirassol - Palmeiras	2:3
24.02.24	Palmeiras - Mirassol	3:1
01.02.23	Mirassol - Palmeiras	0:2

Upcoming Matches