Match Info

Veikkausliiga - Round 4

Date: 24 April 2026, Friday

Location: Veritas Stadion (Turku)

Referee: Hajizadeh A. (Fin)

Where to Watch on TV:


Finland	Ruutu+
World	Onefootball


	TPS		Gnistan

	1	X	2
	2.35	3.25	3.1	Watch
	2.3	3.4	2.9
	2.28	3.55	2.82
	2.42	3.77	2.85
	2.32	3.73	2.81	Watch
	2.25	3.25	3
	2.34	3.55	2.79	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.32 ↑ (2.21)	3.5 ↓ (3.76)	2.9 ↓ (2.94)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 2.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

TPS
40.6%

Draw
26.9%

Gnistan
32.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

42.7%

25.1%

32.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

43.6%

24.6%

31.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

TPS has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.1%)

Gnistan has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for TPS than the current prediction. (+3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Gnistan than the current prediction. (-1.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
81.2%	6.2%	12.5%

TPS - Gnistan Predictions

Users Predictions: 15 users predict this event. TPS will win (votes: 12 - 80%). Gnistan will win (votes: 2 - 13.3%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 6.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for TPS: 59.8% – 100%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DC - TPS (1.42) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 4.5 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. TPS (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Henriksson E. (G) 2. Haggstrom O. 14. Hradecky M. 17. Sihvonen A. (C) 3. Turkki E. 6. Juvanteny P. 22. Zaal T. 29. Muzaci A. 10. Konkkola M. 11. Vauhkonen E. 13. Tsirigotis T.	1. Craninx A. (G) 24. Gnanou R. 67. Obileye A. (C) 4. Marcelo Costa 27. Hannula O. 15. Europaeus G. 31. Jouhi A. 12. Arko-Mensah E. 26. Eremenko R. 10. Latonen J. 23. Ylatupa S.
Substitutes
41. Anini S. 30. Asula H. (G) 15. Azongnitode C. 8. Coulibaly A. 26. Ikonen L. 9. Ivanovic L. 77. Karkulowski T. 20. Kauppila M. 4. Sairinen A.	17. Akinyemi A. 20. Bjurstrom M. H. 2. Dahlstrom B. 14. Eremenko S. 19. Hanninen V. 40. Ojala J. 11. Perez D. 22. Ramilson (G)
Coaches
Pinol I.	Leppalahti J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
30', Obileye A. ↓, Ojala J. ↑,
41', Ojala J. 🟨,
45', Latonen J. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
54', Vauhkonen E. 🟨,
55', Hannula O. 🟨,
55', Ylatupa S. ↓, Akinyemi A. ↑,
56', Vauhkonen E. ↓, Ivanovic L. ↑,
59', Zaal T. 🟨,
59', Konkkola M. 🟨,
70', 0 - 1, Akinyemi A. ⚽, Craninx A. (A),
74', Ivanovic L. ↓, Kauppila M. ↑,
74', Juvanteny P. ↓, Karkulowski T. ↑,
75', Haggstrom O. ↓, Ikonen L. ↑,
76', Latonen J. ↓, Eremenko S. ↑,
76', Hannula O. ↓, Bjurstrom M. H. ↑,
80', Arko-Mensah E. 🟨,
85', Europaeus G. 🟨,
89', Sihvonen A. ↓, Anini S. ↑,
90', Jouhi A. 🟨,
90+4', 1 - 1, Anini S. ⚽, Zaal T. (A),

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, TPS won 2.

TPS has shown excellent form with a series of wins in recent matches (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Gnistan is currently in poor form (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

TPS may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

There will not play in Gnistan: Bashkirov E. (Inactive) Launiala K. (Inactive) Lyberopoulos O. (Inactive) von Hellens L. (Inactive)

In the last 13 head-to-head matches, TPS won 8 matches, drew 1 match, lost 4 matches, and goals 22:9. (average 1.7:0.7).

Including home matches between the teams, TPS won 5 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 16:5. (average 2.3:0.7).

Outrights of Finnish Veikkausliiga for now

Gnistan: 2.17%

Standings

Championship Group

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
4	Gnistan	26	11	9	6	40:32	8	42

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- TPS
Finnish Veikkausliiga
18.04.26	TPS - SJK	2:0 ✺
Finnish Cup
15.04.26	Ekenäs - TPS	1:2 ✺
Finnish Veikkausliiga
10.04.26	TPS - Lahti	2:1 ✺
04.04.26	IFK Mariehamn - TPS	1:1 ✺
Club Friendly
27.03.26	TPS - PK-35 Vantaa	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 20.6 WWWTW
- IF Gnistan
Finnish Veikkausliiga
18.04.26	Gnistan - HJK	0:3 ✺
11.04.26	KuPS Kuopio - Gnistan	1:0 ✺
04.04.26	Gnistan - Oulu	1:5 ✺
Club Friendly
28.03.26	KTP Kotka - Gnistan	1:1 ✺
21.03.26	Gnistan - PK-35 Vantaa	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.6 LLLTW

Latest Head to Head

Finnish Veikkausliiga Liiga Cup
14.02.26	TPS - Gnistan	0:2
Club Friendly
16.03.24	TPS - Gnistan	2:0
Finnish Ykkonen
17.09.23	Gnistan - TPS	2:0
23.07.23	Gnistan - TPS	0:3
13.05.23	TPS - Gnistan	0:2
03.09.22	TPS - Gnistan	5:0
22.06.22	Gnistan - TPS	0:1

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