Match Info

Veikkausliiga - Championship Group - Round 25

Date: 18 September 2026, Friday 🏁 Finished

Location: Markku.fi Areena (Helsinki) 🌤️ ...

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Finland	19:00	Ruutu+
International	16:00	OneFootball TV


	Gnistan		HJK

	1	X	2
	3.80	3.80	1.75	Watch
	4.10	3.90	1.75
	3.80	3.85	1.74	Watch
	4.15	4.14	1.83
	4.19	4.1	1.75	Watch
	4.05	4.00	1.81
	4.03	3.96	1.76	Watch
	3.80	3.75	1.75
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.99 ↑ (3.05)	3.94 ↑ (3.65)	1.77 ↓ (2.04)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 2.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Gnistan
23.4%

Draw
23.7%

HJK
52.9%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

30.1%

25.1%

44.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

28.9%

25.5%

45.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Gnistan has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Gnistan's form might have worsened.

HJK has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting HJK's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Gnistan than the current prediction. (+5.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Gnistan, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for HJK than the current prediction. (-7.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for HJK, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	0%	100%

Gnistan - HJK Predictions

Users Predictions: 3 users predict this event. HJK will win (votes: 3 - 100%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. HJK (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - over (1.53) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

New Consensus by Tipsters:

1X2 - HJK Helsinki (1.75) (votes: 100%) ⭐ Best Value.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Virtanen O. (G) 67. Obileye A. (C) 24. Gnanou R. 3. Ruxi 27. Hannula O. 14. Eremenko S. 10. Latonen J. 12. Arko-Mensah E. 11. Perez D. 7. Atarah A. 26. Eremenko R.	1. Ost J. (C) 13. Simojoki K. 6. Tikkanen V. 3. Cissokho T. 14. Montano L. 11. Kirilov M. 4. Ring A. 8. Mentu P. 26. Lappalainen L. 20. Pukki T. 7. Cicale A.
Substitutes
2. Dahlstrom B. 15. Europaeus G. 45. Launiala K. 13. Lyberopoulos O. (G) 40. Ojala J. 25. Rossi N. 23. Ylatupa S.	17. Alho N. 31. Bogicevic M. 9. Borchers M. 32. Gueye M. 29. Haarala S. 15. Kallinen J. 10. Lingman L. 30. Samooja J. (G)
Coaches
Leppalahti J.	Rantanen J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
22', 1 - 0, Obileye A. ⚽, Arko-Mensah E. (A),
24', 1 - 1, Mentu P. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
50', Cissokho T. ↓, Bogicevic M. ↑,
60', Latonen J. ↓, Europaeus G. ↑,
60', Eremenko R. ↓, Ylatupa S. ↑,
63', Kirilov M. ↓, Borchers M. ↑,
63', Lappalainen L. ↓, Haarala S. ↑,
79', Perez D. ↓, Launiala K. ↑,
81', Obileye A. ↓, Ojala J. ↑,
84', Launiala K. 🟨,
87', Montano L. ↓, Alho N. ↑,
87', Ring A. ↓, Lingman L. ↑,

Preview

A balanced mid-table encounter with both sides eager to climb into upper positions (ranked 4th and 3rd in the Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Gnistan won 1.

Gnistan is in solid form heading into this fixture (last 5 matches: 3 wins).

Performances by HJK have been somewhat unpredictable lately (last 5 matches: 2 wins).

HJK may face physical fatigue compared to their opponent, having played more matches in recent days.

A closely fought contest is anticipated, with HJK holding a narrow advantage.

Confirmed absences for Gnistan: Bashkirov E. (Knee Injury) Jouhi A. (Yellow Cards) Marcelo Costa (Inactive) Milovanov B. (Yellow Cards) Ojala J. (Illness).

Confirmed absences for HJK: Ezeh D. (Broken hipbone) Nallo A. (Inactive) Toivonen E. (Injury) Veteli J. (Inactive).

In the last 14 head-to-head meetings, Gnistan has recorded 4 wins, 1 draw, and 9 losses, with a goal aggregate of 14:38 (averaging 1:2.7 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Gnistan against this opponent, the record stands at 0 wins, 1 draw, and 6 losses, with 5:27 goals (averaging 0.7:3.9 per game).

Standings

Championship Group

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	HJK	30	16	7	7	59:36	23	55
5	Gnistan	30	11	10	9	44:42	2	43

Outrights of Finnish Veikkausliiga for now

HJK: 68.22%

Last Results with these Odds

HJK - the odds 2.04 are the expected chance of winning is 44.87%, but this team recently wins 38% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- IF Gnistan
Finnish Veikkausliiga
12.09.26	Oulu - Gnistan	1:2 ✺
08.09.26	Gnistan - KuPS Kuopio	1:1 ✺
31.08.26	Gnistan - TPS	1:1 ✺
23.08.26	HJK - Gnistan	2:3 ✺
17.08.26	Gnistan - Ilves	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 21.2 WTTWW
- HJK Helsinki
Finnish Veikkausliiga
13.09.26	KuPS Kuopio - HJK	0:0 ✺
09.09.26	HJK - Inter Turku	2:1 ✺
Finnish Cup
05.09.26	Inter Turku - HJK	1:0 ✺
Finnish Veikkausliiga
31.08.26	Ilves - HJK	1:2 ✺
23.08.26	HJK - Gnistan	2:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8 TWLWL

Latest Head to Head

Finnish Veikkausliiga
23.08.26	HJK - Gnistan	2:3
18.04.26	Gnistan - HJK	0:3
Club Friendly
10.03.26	HJK - Gnistan	3:0
Finnish Veikkausliiga Liiga Cup
07.02.26	HJK - Gnistan	3:1
Finnish Veikkausliiga
03.11.25	Gnistan - HJK	2:2
03.10.25	HJK - Gnistan	2:3
28.07.25	Gnistan - HJK	2:4

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