Match Info

Veikkausliiga - Round 9

Date: 30 May 2026, Saturday 🏁 Finished

Location: Veritas Stadion (Turku) 🌤️ ...

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Finland	17:00	Ruutu+
International	14:00	Onefootball


	TPS		VPS Vaasa

	1	X	2
	3.1	3.25	2.2	Watch
	3.05	3.35	2.22	Watch
	3.28	3.5	2.29
	3.16	3.29	2.32	Watch
	3	3.2	2.2
	3.13	3.28	2.26	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.12 ↑ (2.89)	3.31 ↑ (3.27)	2.25 ↓ (2.4)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 2.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

TPS
30%

Draw
28.3%

VPS Vaasa
41.7%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

32.4%

28.6%

39%

Our Initial ML Estimation

32.5%

28.7%

38.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

TPS has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.4%)

VPS Vaasa has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for TPS than the current prediction. (+2.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for VPS Vaasa than the current prediction. (-2.8%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
22.2%	0%	77.8%

TPS - VPS Vaasa Predictions

Users Predictions: 9 users predict this event. TPS will win (votes: 2 - 22.2%). VPS will win (votes: 7 - 77.8%).
Confidence interval (95%) for VPS: 50.6% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Henriksson E. (G) 2. Haggstrom O. 14. Hradecky M. 3. Turkki E. 77. Karkulowski T. 10. Konkkola M. 22. Zaal T. 26. Ikonen L. 20. Kauppila M. 29. Muzaci A. (C) 11. Vauhkonen E.	41. Jalloh M. (G) 2. Mane L. 6. Okereke E. 23. Niemi M. (C) 27. Kouassivi-Benissan K. 8. Lima P. 34. Raisanen A. 24. Daoussi Y. 7. Turfkruier J. 11. Muzinga J. 15. Smyth L.
Substitutes
41. Anini S. 15. Azongnitode C. 9. Ivanovic L. 6. Juvanteny P. 35. Lauri D. (G) 4. Sairinen A. 17. Sihvonen A. 24. Talo N. 28. Vakiparta T.	26. Forsbacka R. 19. Haukioja M. 35. Keturi O. 33. Kuek A. 14. Lindholm S. 13. Ogunniyi O. 1. Piispa A. (G) 5. Ronnberg V. 30. Vahtera J.
Coaches
Pinol I.	Nuorela J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
5', Karkulowski T. 🟨,
44', Niemi M. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
55', Vauhkonen E. ↓, Ivanovic L. ↑,
55', Karkulowski T. ↓, Talo N. ↑,
67', Haggstrom O. ↓, Sairinen A. ↑,
68', Muzinga J. ↓, Vahtera J. ↑,
68', Daoussi Y. ↓, Lindholm S. ↑,
70', Hradecky M. 🟨,
78', Kouassivi-Benissan K. ↓, Ogunniyi O. ↑,
83', 1 - 0, Kauppila M. ⚽, Talo N. (A),
87', Konkkola M. ↓, Vakiparta T. ↑,
87', Niemi M. ↓, Haukioja M. ↑,
87', Raisanen A. ↓, Keturi O. ↑,
90+2', Turkki E. 🟨,

Preview

The game will be played between two neighbours in the standings (ranked 6 in the zone Promotion ~ Veikkausliiga (Championship Group: ) and 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Veikkausliiga (Championship Group: ))

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, TPS won 3.

Recent performances by TPS have been up and down (last 5 games: 2 wins).

VPS is currently in excellent shape (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

VPS may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Recently, VPS has had a series of home games.

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

There are questionable in TPS: Juvanteny P. (Inactive)

There are questionable in VPS: van Duivenbooden S. (Injury)

In the last 16 head-to-head matches, TPS won 6 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 12:12. (average 0.8:0.8).

Including home matches between the teams, TPS won 5 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 10:8. (average 1:0.8).

Standings

Championship Group

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
6	VPS	29	11	6	12	31:34	-3	39

Last Results with these Odds

VPS Vaasa - the odds 2.4 are the expected chance of winning is 38.98%, but this team recently wins 50% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- TPS
Finnish Cup
27.05.26	Ilves - TPS	1:0 ✺
Finnish Veikkausliiga
23.05.26	Inter Turku - TPS	2:1 ✺
16.05.26	Oulu - TPS	1:0 ✺
Finnish Cup
13.05.26	TPS - HJS	3:0 ✺
Finnish Veikkausliiga
08.05.26	TPS - HJK	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.1 LLLWW
- VPS Vaasa
Finnish Cup
26.05.26	VPS Vaasa - Haka	4:0 ✺
Finnish Veikkausliiga
22.05.26	VPS Vaasa - HJK	2:1 ✺
18.05.26	Lahti - VPS Vaasa	1:1 ✺
Finnish Cup
13.05.26	VPS Vaasa - Åbo IFK	7:0 ✺
Finnish Veikkausliiga
09.05.26	VPS Vaasa - Gnistan	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.5 WWTWT

Latest Head to Head

Club Friendly
14.03.26	TPS - VPS Vaasa	1:0
Finnish Ykkonen
08.10.21	TPS - VPS Vaasa	1:3
01.09.21	VPS Vaasa - TPS	1:2
05.05.21	TPS - VPS Vaasa	1:1
Finnish Veikkausliiga
17.08.18	TPS - VPS Vaasa	4:1
04.07.18	VPS Vaasa - TPS	2:0
07.05.18	TPS - VPS Vaasa	0:1

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