What is the expert prediction for VPS Vaasa vs Gnistan?

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VPS Vaasa vs Gnistan Predictions, H2H Stats & TV Channels (Saturday, May 09, 2026)

Match Info

Veikkausliiga - Round 6

Date: 9 May 2026, Saturday

Location: Lemonsoft Stadion (Vaasa)

Referee: Nieminen J. (Fin)

Where to Watch on TV:


Finland	Ruutu+
World	Onefootball


	VPS Vaasa		Gnistan

	1	X	2
	1.83	3.5	3.75	Watch
	1.88	3.6	3.75
	1.88	3.7	3.7	Watch
	1.95	3.88	3.95
	1.93	3.88	3.61	Watch
	1.85	3.5	3.6
	1.88	3.59	3.85	Watch
	2	3.4	3.15
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.9 ↓ (1.97)	3.63 ↑ (3.6)	3.67 ↑ (3.37)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 2.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

VPS Vaasa
49%

Draw
25.6%

Gnistan
25.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

46.9%

25.7%

27.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

48.6%

24.8%

26.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

VPS Vaasa has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.1%)

Gnistan has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for VPS Vaasa than the current prediction. (-0.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Gnistan than the current prediction. (+1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
66.7%	0%	33.3%

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Predictions

Users Predictions: 6 users predict this event. VPS will win (votes: 4 - 66.7%). Gnistan will win (votes: 2 - 33.3%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 3.5 - under (votes: 2 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

DC - Gnistan (1.84) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Gnistan (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
41. Jalloh M. (G) 2. Mane L. 6. Okereke E. 19. Haukioja M. (C) 34. Raisanen A. 27. Kouassivi-Benissan K. 14. Lindholm S. 8. Lima P. 7. Turfkruier J. 11. Muzinga J. 15. Smyth L.	1. Craninx A. (G) 24. Gnanou R. 67. Obileye A. (C) 4. Marcelo Costa 27. Hannula O. 14. Eremenko S. 15. Europaeus G. 12. Arko-Mensah E. 23. Ylatupa S. 17. Akinyemi A. 10. Latonen J.
Substitutes
24. Daoussi Y. 26. Forsbacka R. 35. Keturi O. 33. Kuek A. 23. Niemi M. 13. Ogunniyi O. 30. Vahtera J. 12. Vayrynen L. (G)	7. Atarah A. 20. Bjurstrom M. H. 2. Dahlstrom B. 19. Hanninen V. 31. Jouhi A. 40. Ojala J. 11. Perez D. 22. Ramilson (G)
Coaches
Nuorela J.	Leppalahti J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
6', Craninx A. 🟨,
7', 1 - 0, Smyth L. (Penalty Awarded),
44', Gnanou R. ↓, Ojala J. ↑,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Ylatupa S. ↓, Perez D. ↑,
54', Lima P. 🟨,
63', 1 - 1, Akinyemi A. ⚽, Perez D. (A),
68', Muzinga J. ↓, Vahtera J. ↑,
74', Latonen J. ↓, Hanninen V. ↑,
78', Haukioja M. ↓, Niemi M. ↑,
78', Smyth L. ↓, Keturi O. ↑,
83', Turfkruier J. 🟨,
84', Eremenko S. ↓, Jouhi A. ↑,
85', Hanninen V. 🟨,
90+1', Lindholm S. ↓, Ogunniyi O. ↑,

Preview

A meeting between a mid-table team and the outsider will take place in this match (ranked 6 in the zone Promotion ~ Veikkausliiga (Championship Group: ) and 11 in the zone Veikkausliiga (Relegation Group: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, VPS won 1.

VPS has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Gnistan is going through a rough patch (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

VPS could have a small edge in this match.

There will not play in Gnistan: Bashkirov E. (Inactive) Launiala K. (Inactive) Lyberopoulos O. (Inactive) von Hellens L. (Inactive)

There are questionable in VPS: van Duivenbooden S. (Injury)

In the last 11 head-to-head matches, VPS won 5 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 17:16. (average 1.5:1.5).

Including home matches between the teams, VPS won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 8:8. (average 1.6:1.6).

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Outrights of Finnish Veikkausliiga for now

VPS: 1.64% Gnistan: 0.82%

Standings

2026

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
5	Gnistan	11	5	2	4	17:15	2	17
6	VPS	11	4	5	2	11:9	2	17

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- VPS Vaasa
Finnish Veikkausliiga
02.05.26	IFK Mariehamn - VPS Vaasa	0:1 ✺
24.04.26	VPS Vaasa - Ilves	3:2 ✺
18.04.26	Oulu - VPS Vaasa	1:0 ✺
10.04.26	VPS Vaasa - FF Jaro	0:0 ✺
04.04.26	Inter Turku - VPS Vaasa	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 17.6 WWLTT
- IF Gnistan
Finnish Veikkausliiga
05.05.26	Gnistan - Inter Turku	2:0 ✺
24.04.26	TPS - Gnistan	1:1 ✺
18.04.26	Gnistan - HJK	0:3 ✺
11.04.26	KuPS Kuopio - Gnistan	1:0 ✺
04.04.26	Gnistan - Oulu	1:5 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.6 WTLLL

Latest Head to Head

Finnish Veikkausliiga
15.08.25	Gnistan - VPS Vaasa	0:0
18.06.25	VPS Vaasa - Gnistan	0:0
23.10.24	VPS Vaasa - Gnistan	0:1
04.08.24	Gnistan - VPS Vaasa	3:0
20.04.24	VPS Vaasa - Gnistan	3:2
Finnish Ykkonen
16.10.21	Gnistan - VPS Vaasa	1:4
18.07.21	Gnistan - VPS Vaasa	2:0

Upcoming Matches

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- VPS Vaasa
Finnish Veikkausliiga
27.06.26	Gnistan - VPS Vaasa	✺
23.06.26	VPS Vaasa - Oulu	✺
- IF Gnistan
Finnish Veikkausliiga
27.06.26	Gnistan - VPS Vaasa	✺
23.06.26	FF Jaro - Gnistan	✺

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VPS Vaasa - Gnistan: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide