Match Info

MLS Next Pro

Date: 3 July 2025, Thursday

Location: Starfire Sports (Tukwila, WA)

Where to Watch on TV:


Usa	MLS Next Pro


	Tacoma Defiance		The Town

	1	X	2
				Watch
	1.58	4.2	4
	1.85	4.05	3.3	Watch
	1.53	4.62	4.93
				Watch
	1.5	4.2	4.33
	1.82	3.98	3.35
	1.82	3.95	3.35
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.68 ↓ (2.02)	4.17 ↑ (4.02)	3.88 ↑ (2.84)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.50

The best margin for this event is 7.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Tacoma Defiance
54.4%

Draw
22%

The Town
23.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

45.2%

22.7%

32.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

45.9%

23.1%

31.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Tacoma Defiance has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+9.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Tacoma Defiance's performance.

The Town has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.5%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and The Town might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Tacoma Defiance than the current prediction. (-8.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Tacoma Defiance that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for The Town than the current prediction. (+8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that The Town could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
50%	0%	50%

Tacoma Defiance - The Town Predictions

Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. Tacoma will win (votes: 2 - 50%). The Town will win (votes: 2 - 50%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Tacoma (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
29. Castro J. (G) 33. Baker C. 47. Alvarez D. 38. Yamada K. 21. Baker-Whiting R. 75. Leyva D. 37. Brunell S. 93. Minoungou G. 45. Kingston P. 90. Gomez S. 95. De Rosario O.	31. Montali F. (G) 72. Ibarra R. 27. Eisner W. 66. Cano A. 74. Mbumba A. 50. Rajagopal R. 15. Medina C. 29. Spivey K. 80. Rodriguez M. 55. Adimabua N. 44. Cowell C.
Substitutes
31. Diaw B. 44. Gaffney C. 43. Hassan O. 32. Kang J. 48. Khoury J. 42. Pedder R. 34. Robles D. 41. Shour M. (G) 36. Tsukanome Y.	88. Baptista D. 95. Chavira S. 52. Donnery J. 38. Mendoza E. 97. Ulrich L. (G) 99. Walwyn-Bent K.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 1)
6', 1 - 0, Kingston P. ⚽,
27', 1 - 1, Rodriguez M. ⚽, Adimabua N. (A),
30', Spivey K. 🟨,
44', 2 - 1, Brunell S. ⚽, Kingston P. (A),
2nd Half (2 - 3)
46', Baker C. ↓, Gaffney C. ↑,
46', Leyva D. ↓, Tsukanome Y. ↑,
53', 2 - 2, De Rosario O. (Own goal),
58', 3 - 2, Tsukanome Y. ⚽, Minoungou G. (A), Baker-Whiting R. (A2)
62', Spivey K. ↓, Mendoza E. ↑,
62', Baker-Whiting R. ↓, Diaw B. ↑,
62', Cowell C. ↓, Walwyn-Bent K. ↑,
62', Minoungou G. ↓, Hassan O. ↑,
71', Eisner W. 🟨,
72', De Rosario O. (Pen),
73', Mbumba A. ↓, Baptista D. ↑,
73', Adimabua N. ↓, Donnery J. ↑,
78', De Rosario O. ↓, Khoury J. ↑,
85', 3 - 3, Eisner W. ⚽, Mendoza E. (A),
87', Hassan O. 🟨,
90+1', 3 - 4, Donnery J. ⚽, Baptista D. (A), Rodriguez M. (A2)
90+6', 4 - 4, Kingston P. ⚽, Tsukanome Y. (A), Gaffney C. (A2)
Penalties (5 - 3)
1, Kingston P. (Pen),
1, Donnery J. (Pen),
2, Gomez S. (Pen),
2, Medina C. (Pen),
3, Yamada K. (Pen),
3, Eisner W. (Pen),
4, Gaffney C. (Pen),
4, Baptista D. (Pen),
5, Tsukanome Y. (Pen),

Preview

The game will be played between two neighbours in the standings (ranked 10 and 11)

In recent matches, Tacoma has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 2 wins).

The Town is in great form at the moment (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

The Town may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, The Town has had a series of away games.

Tacoma is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Tacoma won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 8:7. (average 2:1.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Tacoma won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 6:3. (average 3:1.5).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Tacoma Defiance
MLS Next Pro
29.06.25	Los Angeles 2 - Tacoma Defiance	2:3 ✺
11.06.25	Real Monarchs - Tacoma Defiance	2:1 ✺
31.05.25	Tacoma Defiance - Minnesota United 2	2:1 penalties ✺
25.05.25	Tacoma Defiance - North Texas	2:3 ✺
18.05.25	Portland Timbers 2 - Tacoma Defiance	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.4 WLWLL
- The Town FC
MLS Next Pro
29.06.25	The Town - Ventura County	2:1 penalties ✺
22.06.25	St. Louis City 2 - The Town	3:1 ✺
01.06.25	Los Angeles 2 - The Town	1:2 ✺
25.05.25	Colorado Rapids 2 - The Town	0:3 ✺
18.05.25	Sporting Kansas City II - The Town	0:1 penalties ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.1 WLWWW

Latest Head to Head

MLS Next Pro
14.03.25	Tacoma Defiance - The Town	3:1
25.08.24	The Town - Tacoma Defiance	2:1 penalties
11.06.24	The Town - Tacoma Defiance	2:1
25.04.24	Tacoma Defiance - The Town	3:2

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