Match Info

Copa Uruguay - Quarter-finals

Date: 24 September 2025, Wednesday

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	Disney+
Brazil	Disney+
Mexico	Disney+
North-central-america	Disney+ Caribbean
Peru	Disney+
South-america	Gol TV Latinoamerica, Gol TV Latinoamerica
Uruguay	Disney+, VTV+
Usa	Fanatiz
Venezuela	Disney+, Inter


	Tacuarembó		Peñarol de Montevideo

	1	X	2
				Watch
	5.09	3.64	1.67
	5.02	3.16	1.79	Watch
	5.39	3.52	1.63	Watch
	5	3.99	1.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	5.13 ↑ (5)	3.58 ↓ (3.99)	1.65 ↑ (1.5)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Tacuarembó
18%

Draw
25.8%

Peñarol de Montevideo
56.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

17.9%

22.4%

59.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

17.7%

22.1%

60.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Tacuarembó has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.1%)

Peñarol de Montevideo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Tacuarembó than the current prediction. (-0.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Peñarol de Montevideo than the current prediction. (+4.4%)

Tacuarembó - Peñarol de Montevideo Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Marsengo A. (G) 24. Baeza J. 30. Bittencourt D. 28. Fagundez P. 7. Furtado P. 29. Hernandez R. (C) 27. Machado L. 4. Martirena F. 10. Mederos F. 2. Piegas A. 17. Scotto S.	25. Campana M. (G) 28. Baez J. 80. David Terans 50. Garcia Cardozo D. G. 17. Gularte E. 24. Jesus Trindade 27. Lucas Hernandez 23. Mendez J. 21. Silva G. 22. Suarez D. 8. Villalba H.
Substitutes
16. Davila A. 14. Dominguez L. 18. Fuentes Penna E. J. 19. Gonzalez N. 20. Luciani V. 6. Medina L. 15. Muhlethaler M. 1. Samurio A. (G) 13. Sosa G. 9. Vargas D.	40. Alvarez B. 55. Couture L. 14. Cruz A. 33. Daguer J. 34. Herrera N. 1. Morgan Michelena K. M. (G) 30. Muhlethaler S. 6. Rodriguez K. 11. Silvera M. 32. Umpierrez L.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
25', 1 - 0, Machado L. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 2)
78', 1 - 1, Umpierrez L. ⚽,
90+12', 1 - 2, David Terans ⚽,
90+17', 🟥,

Preview

In recent matches, Tacuarembó has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Peñarol is in great form and has won several matches in a row (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Peñarol may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Peñarol is considered a favorite.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Tacuarembó won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 1:3. (average 0.5:1.5).

Including home match between the teams, Tacuarembó won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 1:1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Tacuarembó FC
Uruguayan Segunda Division
20.09.25	Tacuarembó - Central Español	0:0 ✺
14.09.25	Artigas - Tacuarembó	1:1 ✺
Uruguay Copa
10.09.25	Cerro Largo - Tacuarembó	0:1 ✺
Uruguayan Segunda Division
07.09.25	Rentistas - Tacuarembó	3:1 ✺
30.08.25	Tacuarembó - La Luz	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.6 TTWLT
- Peñarol de Montevideo
Uruguayan Primera Division
21.09.25	Peñarol de Montevideo - Juventud de Las Piedras	1:0 ✺
13.09.25	Liverpool Montevideo - Peñarol de Montevideo	2:2 ✺
Uruguay Copa
10.09.25	Peñarol de Montevideo - Liverpool Montevideo	2:1 ✺
Uruguayan Primera Division
06.09.25	Peñarol de Montevideo - Plaza Colonia	1:0 ✺
31.08.25	Racing Montevideo - Peñarol de Montevideo	1:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.7 WTWWW

Latest Head to Head

Uruguayan Primera Division
07.03.15	Tacuarembó - Peñarol de Montevideo	1:1
31.08.14	Peñarol de Montevideo - Tacuarembó	2:0

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