Match Info

SPAIN: PRIMERA RFEF - GROUP 1 - ROUND 18

Date: 8 January 2023, Sunday

Location: Estadio El Prado (Talavera de la Reina)


	Talavera de la Reina		Ceuta

	1	X	2
	1.95	3.1	3.75
	2	3.1	3.4
	1.85	3.4	3.7
	2.04	3.05	3.4
	2.16	3.07	3.71
	1.73	3.2	4.8
	2.08	3.13	3.42
	2.05	3.1	3.45
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.98 ↑ (1.73)	3.14 ↓ (3.37)	3.7 ↓ (4.6)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 5.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Talavera de la Reina
46.2%

Draw
29.1%

Ceuta
24.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

52.9%

27.2%

19.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

53.9%

26.7%

19.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Talavera de la Reina has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Talavera de la Reina's form might have worsened.

Ceuta has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Talavera de la Reina than the current prediction. (+7.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Talavera de la Reina, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ceuta than the current prediction. (-5.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Ceuta, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
25%	37.5%	37.5%

Talavera de la Reina - Ceuta Predictions

Users Predictions: 8 users predict this event. Talavera will win (votes: 2 - 25%). Ceuta will win (votes: 3 - 37.5%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 37.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Ceuta: 4% – 71%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Preview

In a match only outsiders will meet (ranked 19 in the zone Relegation and 20 in the zone Relegation).

Right away both teams are in a satisfying form.

Talavera could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

Recently Ceuta have a series of home games.

Talavera will have a poor advantage in this game.

Recently, the teams did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CF Talavera de la Reina
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
17.12.22	Talavera de la Reina - San Fernando	0:0 ✺
10.12.22	Real Madrid Castilla - Talavera de la Reina	0:0 ✺
07.12.22	Talavera de la Reina - Celta de Vigo B	1:0 ✺
04.12.22	San Sebastian Reyes - Talavera de la Reina	0:2 ✺
27.11.22	Talavera de la Reina - Linense	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 28.6 TTWWT
- AD Ceuta
Spanish Copa del Rey
03.01.23	Ceuta - Elche	1:0 ✺
21.12.22	Ceuta - Ibiza	3:2 ✺
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
18.12.22	Ceuta - Deportivo A Coruña	1:2 ✺
11.12.22	Linares Deportivo - Ceuta	2:2 ✺
08.12.22	Ceuta - San Sebastian Reyes	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 25 WWLTW

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