Match Info

Primera RFEF - Group 1 - Round 10

Date: 2 November 2025, Sunday

Location: Alfredo di Stéfano Stadium (Madrid)

Where to Watch on TV:


Spain	Footballclub, LaLiga+, Movistar Plus+


	Real Madrid Castilla		Talavera de la Reina

	1	X	2
	1.9	3.1	3.75
	1.9	3.15	4.05
	1.88	3.50	3.83	Watch
	1.98	3.23	3.91
	1.79	3.13	4.7
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.89 ↑ (1.88)	3.22 ↓ (3.5)	4.05 ↑ (3.83)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Real Madrid Castilla
48.7%

Draw
28.6%

Talavera de la Reina
22.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

49.3%

26.5%

24.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

51%

25.6%

23.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Real Madrid Castilla has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.6%)

Talavera de la Reina has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Real Madrid Castilla than the current prediction. (+2.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Talavera de la Reina than the current prediction. (+0.7%)

Real Madrid Castilla - Talavera de la Reina Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Fran (G) 2. Jimenez D. 15. Martinez J. 3. Valdepenas V. 5. Serrano M. 8. Angel M. 14. Cestero Sancho J. 27. Pitarch T. 7. Yanez D. 9. Zuniga L. 10. Palacios C.	1. Gonzalez J. (G) 17. Ouacharaf B. 5. Molina S. 4. Lopez A. 3. Roig A. 18. Capo P. 8. Sanchez L. 6. Pitu 19. Gomez V. 7. Di Renzo G. 9. Moreno M.
Substitutes
21. Aguado D. 33. Castrelo G. 23. Fati L. 20. Fortuny P. 11. Iglesias Lois B. 37. Lezcano A. 30. Mesonero D. 25. Mestre S. (G) 6. Perea C. 4. Rivas M. 13. Sunico G. (G)	10. Ayllon I. 2. Cuenca D. 23. Farrando M. 11. Gallardo Rodriguez E. 21. Montero Sergio 16. Navarro I. 13. Rocafort R. (G) 22. Rodriguez F.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
4', Palacios C. 🟨,
11', Di Renzo G. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
63', Gomez V. ↓, Gallardo Rodriguez E. ↑,
63', Moreno M. ↓, Rodriguez F. ↑,
69', Pitarch T. ↓, Leiva A. ↑,
69', Yanez D. ↓, Aguado D. ↑,
69', Serrano M. ↓, Mesonero D. ↑,
72', Gallardo Rodriguez E. 🟨,
75', 🟨,
82', 1 - 0, Martinez J. ⚽,
85', Ouacharaf B. ↓, Montero Sergio ↑,
85', Capo P. ↓, Cuenca D. ↑,
85', Roig A. ↓, Navarro I. ↑,
89', Palacios C. ↓, Iglesias Lois B. ↑,
89', Angel M. ↓, Perea C. ↑,
90+2', Perea C. 🟨,

Preview

One team leads the standings, the other sits mid-table (ranked 6 and 10).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Real Madrid Castilla won 2.

Real Madrid Castilla is showing really good form (last 5 games: 4 wins).

In recent matches, Talavera has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Real Madrid Castilla may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Real Madrid Castilla is seen as the favorite.

We predict that Real Madrid Castilla will win today's game, with odds of 1.75.

In the last 8 head-to-head matches, Real Madrid Castilla won 4 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 21:12. (average 2.6:1.5).

Including home matches between the teams, Real Madrid Castilla won 1 match, drew 3 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 5:3. (average 1.3:0.8).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Real Madrid Castilla
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
25.10.25	Real Madrid Castilla - Real Avilés	2:0 ✺
19.10.25	Ourense CF - Real Madrid Castilla	1:3 ✺
12.10.25	Real Madrid Castilla - Pontevedra	1:0 ✺
05.10.25	Ponferradina - Real Madrid Castilla	2:3 ✺
27.09.25	Real Madrid Castilla - Tenerife	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 17.9 WWWWL
- CF Talavera de la Reina
Spanish Copa del Rey
28.10.25	Rayo Majadahonda - Talavera de la Reina	1:4 ✺
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
25.10.25	Talavera de la Reina - Osasuna B	2:0 ✺
19.10.25	Real Avilés - Talavera de la Reina	1:1 ✺
11.10.25	Talavera de la Reina - Ponferradina	0:1 ✺
05.10.25	Pontevedra - Talavera de la Reina	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11 WWTLL

Latest Head to Head

Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
30.04.23	Talavera de la Reina - Real Madrid Castilla	2:7
10.12.22	Real Madrid Castilla - Talavera de la Reina	0:0
Spanish Segunda RFEF - Group 5
09.05.21	Talavera de la Reina - Real Madrid Castilla	2:4
17.04.21	Real Madrid Castilla - Talavera de la Reina	2:2
Spanish Segunda RFEF - Group 1
04.02.18	Talavera de la Reina - Real Madrid Castilla	2:1
16.09.17	Real Madrid Castilla - Talavera de la Reina	2:0
Spanish Segunda RFEF - Group 2
07.05.16	Talavera de la Reina - Real Madrid Castilla	3:4

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