Match Info

Primera RFEF - Group 1 - Round 5

Date: 26 September 2025, Friday

Location: Estadio El Prado (Talavera de la Reina)

Where to Watch on TV:


Spain	Footballclub, LaLiga+


	Talavera de la Reina		Lugo

	1	X	2
	2.55	2.8	2.7
	2.52	2.98	2.82
	2.61	3.05	2.76
	2.59	2.69	3.16	Watch
	2.55	2.92	2.81
	2.45	2.85	2.95
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.55 ↑ (2.3)	2.88 ↓ (2.9)	2.87 ↓ (3)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 7.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Talavera de la Reina
36.1%

Draw
31.9%

Lugo
32%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

39.1%

31%

30%

Our Initial ML Estimation

38.4%

31.6%

30.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Talavera de la Reina has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3%)

Lugo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Talavera de la Reina than the current prediction. (+2.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Lugo than the current prediction. (-1.5%)

Talavera de la Reina - Lugo Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Tie (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Gonzalez J. (G) 22. Rodriguez F. 5. Molina S. 4. Lopez A. 3. Roig A. 8. Sanchez L. 16. Navarro I. 19. Gomez V. 6. Pitu 11. Gallardo Rodriguez E. (C) 7. Di Renzo G.	1. Martinez M. (C) 2. Merino J. 16. Jose Amo 24. Gaya J. 17. Caballo D. 8. Balboa A. 5. Carbonell A. 11. Pastrana V. 9. Celorio N. 22. Samanes S. 19. Unzueta I.
Substitutes
. Alex 15. Arroyo N. 18. Capo P. 2. Cuenca D. 30. Ihab 14. Molina A. . Montero Sergio 9. Moreno M. 27. Moussa R. 17. Ouacharaf B. 13. Rocafort R. (G) . Rodrigo R. . Steipovich F.	10. Alba T. 26. Arao 3. Garriz I. 7. Gonzalez J. 6. Nicholas N. 13. Piedra I. (G) 14. Presa K. 15. Reniero N. 18. Roson D. 4. Trigueros P.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
28', Di Renzo G. 🟨,
34', Navarro I. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Navarro I. ↓, Capo P. ↑,
57', 1 - 0, Di Renzo G. ⚽, Gomez V. (A),
67', Roig A. ↓, Cuenca D. ↑,
68', Balboa A. ↓, Gonzalez J. ↑,
68', Merino J. ↓, Reniero N. ↑,
68', Pastrana V. ↓, Presa K. ↑,
68', Celorio N. ↓, Garriz I. ↑,
71', Gallardo Rodriguez E. 🟨,
72', Gallardo Rodriguez E. ↓, Farrando M. ↑,
72', Gomez V. ↓, Arroyo N. ↑,
79', Samanes S. ↓, Alba T. ↑,
90+6', 🟨,
90+7', 🟨,

Preview

Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

The teams have not played against each other recently.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CF Talavera de la Reina
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
21.09.25	Talavera de la Reina - Barakaldo	1:1 ✺
14.09.25	Ourense CF - Talavera de la Reina	1:2 ✺
07.09.25	Talavera de la Reina - Athletic Bilbao B	1:1 ✺
31.08.25	Ferrol - Talavera de la Reina	2:1 ✺
Club Friendly
22.08.25	Jaraíz - Talavera de la Reina	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.5 TWTLW
- CD Lugo
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
21.09.25	Lugo - Ferrol	2:1 ✺
14.09.25	Zamora - Lugo	1:0 ✺
06.09.25	Lugo - Real Avilés	0:0 ✺
29.08.25	Real Madrid Castilla - Lugo	2:1 ✺
Club Friendly
21.08.25	UD Ourense - Lugo	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.7 WLTLW

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